Hurricane Katrina

[tallywx]

She may finally be going more westward than before.

I went ahead and plotted the last three hours on Google Earth, based on center of eye as depicted on radar. For the first time at least during that time frame, Katrina has turned towards the west.



Note on typo in image: the 0603z point is actually 0446z.

[mtm4319]

She may finally be going more westward than before.

I went ahead and plotted the last three hours on Google Earth, based on center of eye as depicted on radar. For the first time at least during that time frame, Katrina has turned towards the west.

What radar are you using that still has the eye in its view?

[skysummit]

Key West long range still has the eye well in view.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/D ... kbyx.shtml

[tallywx]

What radar are you using that still has the eye in its view?

I'm using the RIDGE overlay of the Key West long range, which can be found here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/RadarImg/ ... _N0Z_0.gif

Archive:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/RadarImg/N0Z/BYX/

Coordinates for North and West google earth setpoints:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/RadarImg/ ... _N0Z_0.gfw

[mtm4319]

What radar are you using that still has the eye in its view?

I'm using the RIDGE overlay of the Key West long range, which can be found here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/RadarImg/ ... _N0Z_0.gif

Archive:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/RadarImg/N0Z/BYX/

Coordinates for North and West google earth setpoints:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/RadarImg/ ... _N0Z_0.gfw

Oh, the long range. Of course.

Could you be so kind as to give me the parameters (north/south/east/west) for the overlay?

[rockyman]

6z tropical suite--BAMM and BAMD now show NOLA strike:

[Huckster]

Does anyone ever remember a storm so elongated to the South Side? I have been watching a LONG time and cant remember seeing such a sight. Looking deadlier by the hour.

I don't remember this since I was born in 1982, but this image of Betsy shows how it looked on September 7, 1965 as it was moving through the Bahamas. Remember, Betsy did its crazy loop and came back SW and eventually west into Florida, oviously getting "caught" by a very strong and quickly building ridge that kept it from going out to sea. We're seeing a similar although not nearly so extreme thing with Katrina...SE side of and upper ridge, northerly outflow restricted somewhat, lopsided to the south; none of those things necessarily means a storm cannot strengthen, and indeed, it is strengthening right now apparently. Betsy was also quite strong at that point as well, a Cat. 3.

[rockyman]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 270637
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE KATRINA (AL122005) ON 20050827 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050827 0600 050827 1800 050828 0600 050828 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.4N 84.0W 24.4N 85.4W 24.7N 86.8W 25.7N 88.2W
BAMM 24.4N 84.0W 24.6N 85.4W 25.1N 87.0W 25.9N 88.6W
A98E 24.4N 84.0W 24.0N 85.4W 24.0N 86.6W 24.7N 87.6W
LBAR 24.4N 84.0W 24.3N 85.3W 24.8N 86.8W 25.6N 88.8W
SHIP 95KTS 101KTS 109KTS 116KTS
DSHP 95KTS 101KTS 109KTS 116KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050829 0600 050830 0600 050831 0600 050901 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.3N 89.4W 32.9N 89.9W 38.5N 86.5W 41.9N 76.7W
BAMM 27.0N 89.9W 31.5N 89.8W 37.0N 86.0W 41.2N 76.7W
A98E 26.8N 88.4W 32.6N 84.7W 39.9N 76.7W 47.8N 63.4W
LBAR 27.0N 90.4W 31.0N 91.0W 35.8N 86.6W 39.7N 76.8W
SHIP 123KTS 124KTS 110KTS 85KTS
DSHP 123KTS 73KTS 31KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.4N LONCUR = 84.0W DIRCUR = 250DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 24.9N LONM12 = 82.6W DIRM12 = 249DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 25.4N LONM24 = 81.3W
WNDCUR = 95KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 85KT
CENPRS = 950MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 130NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 130NM

[senorpepr]

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 12
Flight ID: AF304
Flt Data Number: 17
Latest Recon Position: 112 mi WNW of Key West, Florida

Ob #01: 06:48:00Z; 25.3°N 83.1°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 210 ft; Wind: SE (130°) @ 61 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 62 mph; Radar Altitude: 10364 ft
Ob #02: 06:48:30Z; 25.3°N 83.1°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 203 ft; Wind: SE (127°) @ 60 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 60 mph; Radar Altitude: 10354 ft
Ob #03: 06:49:00Z; 25.3°N 83.1°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 200 ft; Wind: SE (129°) @ 61 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 61 mph; Radar Altitude: 10344 ft
Ob #04: 06:49:30Z; 25.3°N 83.1°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 194 ft; Wind: SE (126°) @ 61 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 62 mph; Radar Altitude: 10354 ft
Ob #05: 06:50:00Z; 25.3°N 83.2°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 190 ft; Wind: ESE (123°) @ 61 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 61 mph; Radar Altitude: 10338 ft
Ob #06: 06:50:30Z; 25.2°N 83.2°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 184 ft; Wind: ESE (122°) @ 59 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 48°F; Max Wind: 59 mph; Radar Altitude: 10331 ft
Ob #07: 06:51:00Z; 25.2°N 83.2°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 177 ft; Wind: ESE (122°) @ 61 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 48°F; Max Wind: 62 mph; Radar Altitude: 10328 ft
Ob #08: 06:51:30Z; 25.2°N 83.2°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 167 ft; Wind: ESE (120°) @ 63 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 46°F; Max Wind: 65 mph; Radar Altitude: 10315 ft
Ob #09: 06:52:00Z; 25.2°N 83.3°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 167 ft; Wind: SE (124°) @ 62 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 66 mph; Radar Altitude: 10322 ft
Ob #10: 06:52:30Z; 25.2°N 83.3°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 151 ft; Wind: SE (127°) @ 63 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 65 mph; Radar Altitude: 10302 ft
Ob #11: 06:53:00Z; 25.1°N 83.3°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 141 ft; Wind: SE (129°) @ 62 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 63 mph; Radar Altitude: 10295 ft
Ob #12: 06:53:30Z; 25.1°N 83.3°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 131 ft; Wind: SE (129°) @ 61 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 62 mph; Radar Altitude: 10282 ft
Ob #13: 06:54:00Z; 25.1°N 83.4°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 125 ft; Wind: SE (129°) @ 61 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 62 mph; Radar Altitude: 10276 ft
Ob #14: 06:54:30Z; 25.1°N 83.4°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 112 ft; Wind: SE (125°) @ 56 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 47°F; Max Wind: 59 mph; Radar Altitude: 10256 ft
Ob #15: 06:55:00Z; 25°N 83.4°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 102 ft; Wind: SE (127°) @ 56 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 62 mph; Radar Altitude: 10253 ft
Ob #16: 06:55:30Z; 25°N 83.4°W; PA: 10020 ft; D-Value: 89 ft; Wind: SE (131°) @ 69 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 74 mph; Radar Altitude: 10259 ft
Ob #17: 06:56:00Z; 25°N 83.5°W; PA: 9984 ft; D-Value: 72 ft; Wind: SE (141°) @ 70 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 74 mph; Radar Altitude: 10210 ft
Ob #18: 06:56:30Z; 25°N 83.5°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 62 ft; Wind: SE (139°) @ 69 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 73 mph; Radar Altitude: 10213 ft
Ob #19: 06:57:00Z; 25°N 83.5°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 46 ft; Wind: SE (138°) @ 70 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 47°F; Max Wind: 71 mph; Radar Altitude: 10194 ft
Ob #20: 06:57:30Z; 24.9°N 83.5°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: 33 ft; Wind: SE (138°) @ 65 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 48°F; Max Wind: 67 mph; Radar Altitude: 10180 ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect

[tallywx]

Could you be so kind as to give me the parameters (north/south/east/west) for the overlay?

North: 28.589727°
South: 20.600000°
East: -77.346000°
West: -86.059367°

[Ixolib]

6z tropical suite--BAMM and BAMD now show NOLA strike:

Does this include the two outliers that were previously more west toward central LA? If so, they've moved back east toward N.O.

[LAwxrgal]

She may finally be going more westward than before.

I went ahead and plotted the last three hours on Google Earth, based on center of eye as depicted on radar. For the first time at least during that time frame, Katrina has turned towards the west.



Note on typo in image: the 0603z point is actually 0446z.

Actually, from that image, that looks, from the last two plots, that actually looks a hair north of west.

Grasping at straws here....

[tallywx]

For comparison's sake to your earlier image with the lat/lon grids:




Can be confirmed that she's drifted back north of 24.4N.

[artist]

I have been watching and plotting as well and have the last one a little north as well.

[Sanibel]

950 winds 110

Should see 940's and winds following soon.


Katrina could enter her intensification run for the coast at 125mph before she starts to strengthen...

[Derek Ortt]

its a 75% reduction from 925 usually, but may be less of one since the 925mb level is so close to surface

[mtm4319]

Could you be so kind as to give me the parameters (north/south/east/west) for the overlay?

North: 28.589727°
South: 20.600000°
East: -77.346000°
West: -86.059367°

Thanks for these and the archive. Going back and plotting the last hour, there is some definite northward movement. Nearly a tenth of a degree, in fact.

[senorpepr]

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 12
Flight ID: AF304
Flt Data Number: 18
Latest Recon Position: 141 mi W of Key West, Florida

Ob #01: 06:58:00Z; 24.9°N 83.5°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 16 ft; Wind: SE (144°) @ 70 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 48°F; Max Wind: 71 mph; Radar Altitude: 10161 ft
Ob #02: 06:58:30Z; 24.9°N 83.6°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 3 ft; Wind: SE (143°) @ 74 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 75 mph; Radar Altitude: 10161 ft
Ob #03: 06:59:00Z; 24.9°N 83.6°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -20 ft; Wind: SE (136°) @ 73 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 75 mph; Radar Altitude: 10131 ft
Ob #04: 06:59:30Z; 24.9°N 83.6°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: -26 ft; Wind: SE (138°) @ 69 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 71 mph; Radar Altitude: 10121 ft
Ob #05: 07:00:00Z; 24.9°N 83.6°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -49 ft; Wind: SE (141°) @ 75 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 78 mph; Radar Altitude: 10102 ft
Ob #06: 07:00:30Z; 24.8°N 83.7°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: -69 ft; Wind: SE (142°) @ 83 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 89 mph; Radar Altitude: 10095 ft
Ob #07: 07:01:00Z; 24.8°N 83.7°W; PA: 10020 ft; D-Value: -92 ft; Wind: SE (145°) @ 85 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 88 mph; Radar Altitude: 10079 ft
Ob #08: 07:01:30Z; 24.8°N 83.7°W; PA: 9951 ft; D-Value: -108 ft; Wind: SE (146°) @ 86 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 88 mph; Radar Altitude: 9993 ft
Ob #09: 07:02:00Z; 24.8°N 83.7°W; PA: 10023 ft; D-Value: -128 ft; Wind: SE (143°) @ 88 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 90 mph; Radar Altitude: 10049 ft
Ob #10: 07:02:30Z; 24.8°N 83.8°W; PA: 9984 ft; D-Value: -144 ft; Wind: SE (142°) @ 89 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 90 mph; Radar Altitude: 9993 ft
Ob #11: 07:03:00Z; 24.7°N 83.8°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: -167 ft; Wind: SE (139°) @ 88 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 89 mph; Radar Altitude: 9977 ft
Ob #12: 07:03:30Z; 24.7°N 83.8°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: -194 ft; Wind: SE (138°) @ 88 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 88 mph; Radar Altitude: 9961 ft
Ob #13: 07:04:00Z; 24.7°N 83.8°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -230 ft; Wind: SE (142°) @ 90 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 93 mph; Radar Altitude: 9921 ft
Ob #14: 07:04:30Z; 24.7°N 83.8°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: -262 ft; Wind: SE (141°) @ 89 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 91 mph; Radar Altitude: 9888 ft
Ob #15: 07:05:00Z; 24.7°N 83.9°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: -305 ft; Wind: SE (142°) @ 91 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 93 mph; Radar Altitude: 9849 ft
Ob #16: 07:05:30Z; 24.7°N 83.9°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: -354 ft; Wind: SE (143°) @ 93 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 96 mph; Radar Altitude: 9793 ft
Ob #17: 07:06:00Z; 24.6°N 83.9°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: -400 ft; Wind: SE (141°) @ 98 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 98 mph; Radar Altitude: 9747 ft
Ob #18: 07:06:30Z; 24.6°N 83.9°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: -459 ft; Wind: SE (139°) @ 101 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 103 mph; Radar Altitude: 9685 ft
Ob #19: 07:07:00Z; 24.6°N 84°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: -525 ft; Wind: SE (141°) @ 104 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 105 mph; Radar Altitude: 9633 ft
Ob #20: 07:07:30Z; 24.6°N 84°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: -617 ft; Wind: SE (143°) @ 113 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 116 mph; Radar Altitude: 9531 ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect

[senorpepr]

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 12
Flight ID: AF304
Flt Data Number: 19
Latest Recon Position: 151 mi NW of Havana, Cuba

Ob #01: 07:08:00Z; 24.6°N 84°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: -738 ft; Wind: SE (145°) @ 113 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 115 mph; Radar Altitude: 9426 ft
Ob #02: 07:08:30Z; 24.5°N 84°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: -869 ft; Wind: SE (146°) @ 115 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 120 mph; Radar Altitude: 9281 ft
Ob #03: 07:09:00Z; 24.5°N 84°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: -997 ft; Wind: SSE (147°) @ 101 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 106 mph; Radar Altitude: 9163 ft
Ob #04: 07:09:30Z; 24.5°N 84.1°W; PA: 9970 ft; D-Value: -1135 ft; Wind: SE (146°) @ 69 mph; Temp: 60°F; Dewpt: 59°F; Max Wind: 83 mph; Radar Altitude: 8986 ft
Ob #05: 07:10:00Z; 24.5°N 84.1°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: -1198 ft; Wind: SE (145°) @ 39 mph; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 57°F; Max Wind: 45 mph; Radar Altitude: 8963 ft
Ob #06: 07:10:30Z; 24.5°N 84.1°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: -1207 ft; Wind: SSE (167°) @ 15 mph; Temp: 62°F; Dewpt: 56°F; Max Wind: 22 mph; Radar Altitude: 8934 ft
Ob #07: 07:11:00Z; 24.5°N 84.1°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -1181 ft; Wind: W (268°) @ 6 mph; Temp: 60°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 8 mph; Radar Altitude: 8967 ft
Ob #08: 07:11:30Z; 24.4°N 84.2°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: -1152 ft; Wind: NNW (327°) @ 16 mph; Temp: 60°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 20 mph; Radar Altitude: 9003 ft
Ob #09: 07:12:00Z; 24.4°N 84.2°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -1109 ft; Wind: NNW (327°) @ 33 mph; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 56°F; Max Wind: 40 mph; Radar Altitude: 9039 ft
Ob #10: 07:12:30Z; 24.4°N 84.2°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: -1020 ft; Wind: NW (313°) @ 67 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 77 mph; Radar Altitude: 9121 ft
Ob #11: 07:13:00Z; 24.4°N 84.2°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: -899 ft; Wind: NW (310°) @ 91 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 97 mph; Radar Altitude: 9255 ft
Ob #12: 07:13:30Z; 24.4°N 84.2°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: -768 ft; Wind: NW (310°) @ 96 mph; Temp: 57°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 97 mph; Radar Altitude: 9380 ft
Ob #13: 07:14:00Z; 24.3°N 84.3°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -656 ft; Wind: NW (310°) @ 89 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 91 mph; Radar Altitude: 9495 ft
Ob #14: 07:14:30Z; 24.3°N 84.3°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: -571 ft; Wind: NW (306°) @ 82 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 83 mph; Radar Altitude: 9583 ft
Ob #15: 07:15:00Z; 24.3°N 84.3°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: -502 ft; Wind: NW (308°) @ 78 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 79 mph; Radar Altitude: 9652 ft
Ob #16: 07:15:30Z; 24.3°N 84.3°W; PA: 9987 ft; D-Value: -446 ft; Wind: NW (309°) @ 79 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 79 mph; Radar Altitude: 9695 ft
Ob #17: 07:16:00Z; 24.3°N 84.4°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: -400 ft; Wind: NW (308°) @ 76 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 77 mph; Radar Altitude: 9754 ft
Ob #18: 07:16:30Z; 24.2°N 84.4°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -364 ft; Wind: NW (312°) @ 78 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 78 mph; Radar Altitude: 9787 ft
Ob #19: 07:17:00Z; 24.2°N 84.4°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -328 ft; Wind: NW (313°) @ 74 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 77 mph; Radar Altitude: 9823 ft
Ob #20: 07:17:30Z; 24.2°N 84.4°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: -292 ft; Wind: NW (314°) @ 70 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 73 mph; Radar Altitude: 9865 ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect

[mobilebay]

man this isnt looking good at all

It isn't for wherever this hits, but for Mobile it's looking better by the hour.

Please! It is not looking better for Mobile. The track is basicly on the Louisiana/Mississippi Coast. Remember, these models tend to have a west bias. Remeber Ivan's NE jog. Remember Dennis? People in Punta Gorda can sure tell you about Charley's East turn.