My question...
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Matthew Williams
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My question...
I decided to break my silence and post tonight. I personally think the models are too far west. For each degree south Katrina moves it does not move as far west as if it were heading due west. Wouldn't that equate to a more easterly component at the end, since some models are moving this northeast after landfall? I am thinking of track similar to Ivan where right around 28N-29N there might even be an easterly component at about 8kts. Additionally, watching Gulf Coast hurricanes it seems that they like to jump or wobble to the east before landfall. What are your thoughts?
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From Wunderground.com (this doesn't include the latest update):
21 GMT 08/23/05 23.2N 75.5W 35 1007 Tropical Depression
03 GMT 08/24/05 23.4N 76.0W 35 1007 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 08/24/05 24.0N 76.4W 35 1006 Tropical Depression
15 GMT 08/24/05 24.7N 76.7W 40 1006 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/24/05 25.6N 77.2W 45 1002 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/25/05 26.0N 78.0W 50 1001 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/25/05 26.2N 78.7W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/25/05 26.2N 79.3W 60 997 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/25/05 26.1N 79.9W 75 985 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/26/05 25.5N 80.7W 75 984 Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/26/05 25.3N 81.5W 75 987 Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/26/05 25.1N 82.2W 75 981 Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/26/05 25.1N 82.2W 80 981 Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/26/05 25.1N 82.2W 100 971 Category 2 Hurricane
21 GMT 08/26/05 24.8N 82.9W 100 965 Category 2 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/27/05 24.6N 83.6W 105 965 Category 2 Hurricane
In regards to the bolded coordinate,s from degree 25.5N to 24.6N, which is just under 1 degree, Katrina has moved from 80.7W to 83.6W, which is a total of 2.9 degrees. Definitely more west then south.
If you include the latest coordinates, which is 24.4N 84.0W, you've dropped .2 degree S, but gained .4 degree W.
If, within the next two-four updates, Katrina doesn't pass the mark of 25N, then it's going to be too west of NOLA, even with a sharp turn, IMO.
21 GMT 08/23/05 23.2N 75.5W 35 1007 Tropical Depression
03 GMT 08/24/05 23.4N 76.0W 35 1007 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 08/24/05 24.0N 76.4W 35 1006 Tropical Depression
15 GMT 08/24/05 24.7N 76.7W 40 1006 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/24/05 25.6N 77.2W 45 1002 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/25/05 26.0N 78.0W 50 1001 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/25/05 26.2N 78.7W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/25/05 26.2N 79.3W 60 997 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/25/05 26.1N 79.9W 75 985 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/26/05 25.5N 80.7W 75 984 Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/26/05 25.3N 81.5W 75 987 Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/26/05 25.1N 82.2W 75 981 Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/26/05 25.1N 82.2W 80 981 Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/26/05 25.1N 82.2W 100 971 Category 2 Hurricane
21 GMT 08/26/05 24.8N 82.9W 100 965 Category 2 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/27/05 24.6N 83.6W 105 965 Category 2 Hurricane
In regards to the bolded coordinate,s from degree 25.5N to 24.6N, which is just under 1 degree, Katrina has moved from 80.7W to 83.6W, which is a total of 2.9 degrees. Definitely more west then south.
If you include the latest coordinates, which is 24.4N 84.0W, you've dropped .2 degree S, but gained .4 degree W.
If, within the next two-four updates, Katrina doesn't pass the mark of 25N, then it's going to be too west of NOLA, even with a sharp turn, IMO.
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