Derek, I am truly asking if Katrina could fall apart as it approaches the northern gulf. I know you write a lot about the heat content in the gulf and how the Northern Gulf tends to snuff out powerful hurricanes. Do you see this happening with this storm.
Tim
Derek will this thing fall apart in Northern Gulf??
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LSU2001
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Derek will this thing fall apart in Northern Gulf??
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Derek Ortt
it wont fall apart regardless
it may weaken one category in the final 3 hours before landfall, but we'd then be talking a cat 3 storm, which as we saw with Dennis and Ivan is very destructive
if it hits Louisiana, it may come in at peak intensity thanks to the warm eddy just offshore, which has the HIGHEST heat content in the entire basin
if it goes to MS, it will still weaken some
it may weaken one category in the final 3 hours before landfall, but we'd then be talking a cat 3 storm, which as we saw with Dennis and Ivan is very destructive
if it hits Louisiana, it may come in at peak intensity thanks to the warm eddy just offshore, which has the HIGHEST heat content in the entire basin
if it goes to MS, it will still weaken some
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huricanwatcher
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BayouVenteux
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logybogy wrote:Derek or anyone, do you have a heat content map of the Gulf?
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/js/h ... movie.html
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Andrew '92, Katrina '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Ida '21...and countless other lesser landfalling storms whose names have been eclipsed by "The Big Ones".
000
WHXX01 KWBC 270010
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
HURRICANE KATRINA (AL122005) ON 20050827 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050827 0000 050827 1200 050828 0000 050828 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.7N 83.3W 24.6N 84.7W 24.8N 86.2W 25.5N 87.9W
BAMM 24.7N 83.3W 25.0N 84.8W 25.5N 86.5W 26.2N 88.4W
A98E 24.7N 83.3W 24.5N 84.5W 24.7N 85.8W 25.8N 87.0W
LBAR 24.7N 83.3W 24.7N 84.8W 25.0N 86.4W 25.6N 88.1W
SHIP 85KTS 90KTS 97KTS 102KTS
DSHP 85KTS 90KTS 97KTS 102KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050829 0000 050830 0000 050831 0000 050901 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.8N 89.7W 30.7N 92.1W 35.8N 90.9W 39.5N 82.9W
BAMM 27.2N 90.4W 29.6N 91.8W 35.0N 88.8W 39.4N 81.7W
A98E 27.8N 88.2W 34.6N 89.6W 40.2N 91.5W 43.0N 82.9W
LBAR 26.8N 89.7W 30.6N 90.7W 35.0N 86.7W 39.0N 76.9W
SHIP 110KTS 113KTS 103KTS 82KTS
DSHP 110KTS 91KTS 34KTS 30KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.7N LONCUR = 83.3W DIRCUR = 250DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 25.2N LONM12 = 81.9W DIRM12 = 247DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 25.9N LONM24 = 80.3W
WNDCUR = 85KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 75KT
CENPRS = 965MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 55NM RD34NW = 35NM
NOOOO
WHXX01 KWBC 270010
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
HURRICANE KATRINA (AL122005) ON 20050827 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050827 0000 050827 1200 050828 0000 050828 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.7N 83.3W 24.6N 84.7W 24.8N 86.2W 25.5N 87.9W
BAMM 24.7N 83.3W 25.0N 84.8W 25.5N 86.5W 26.2N 88.4W
A98E 24.7N 83.3W 24.5N 84.5W 24.7N 85.8W 25.8N 87.0W
LBAR 24.7N 83.3W 24.7N 84.8W 25.0N 86.4W 25.6N 88.1W
SHIP 85KTS 90KTS 97KTS 102KTS
DSHP 85KTS 90KTS 97KTS 102KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050829 0000 050830 0000 050831 0000 050901 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.8N 89.7W 30.7N 92.1W 35.8N 90.9W 39.5N 82.9W
BAMM 27.2N 90.4W 29.6N 91.8W 35.0N 88.8W 39.4N 81.7W
A98E 27.8N 88.2W 34.6N 89.6W 40.2N 91.5W 43.0N 82.9W
LBAR 26.8N 89.7W 30.6N 90.7W 35.0N 86.7W 39.0N 76.9W
SHIP 110KTS 113KTS 103KTS 82KTS
DSHP 110KTS 91KTS 34KTS 30KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.7N LONCUR = 83.3W DIRCUR = 250DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 25.2N LONM12 = 81.9W DIRM12 = 247DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 25.9N LONM24 = 80.3W
WNDCUR = 85KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 75KT
CENPRS = 965MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 55NM RD34NW = 35NM
NOOOO
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LSU2001
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Thank you very much for your reply Derek. I do admire your forecasting and always look forward to your insights.
Thanks again,
TIm
Thanks again,
TIm
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
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HurricaneBill
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wxmann_91
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Back on topic, I don't think so, please read my disco. (which will be posted shortly)
EDIT: It's posted!!!
EDIT: It's posted!!!
Last edited by wxmann_91 on Fri Aug 26, 2005 10:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Jim Cantore
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Hurricane Floyd wrote:Back on topic, I don't think so, please read my disco. (which will be posted shortly)
what is the topic?
Here:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=71702
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