NHC fallout IF Katrina makes landfall.......

[HouTXmetro]

What will the NHC fallout be if Katrina makes landfall west of New Orleans? In no way am I bashing the NHC but this storm is fooling all of us. Will heads roll?

[rtd2]

What will the NHC fallout be if Katrina makes landfall west of New Orleans? In no way am I bashing the NHC but this storm is fooling all of us. Will heads roll?

UH!....NO the Cone of UNCERTAINY Has and WILL continue to Shift! INSIDE 48 hrs. they will Nail down a Track and Land fall point within 60 miles. Dont worry!

[Derecho]

"Heads Rolling?" ROFL.

People have an incredible need to overdramatize stuff.

If it hits west of New Orleans it will need 4 days to do so. It's not as if it would hit outside of a watch/warning area.

[beenthru6]

I think the NHC is doing the best they can with the info they have. They would have to be God to be able to predict where this thing is going to end up at this point given all of the factors involved. Sometimes, I think people expect too much.

[smashmode]

What will the NHC fallout be if Katrina makes landfall west of New Orleans? In no way am I bashing the NHC but this storm is fooling all of us. Will heads roll?

I can understand why NHC is not calling for NOLA..that would create instant panic..and the city would be evacuated.

But if the NHC knows that it has a good chance of hitting nola...its their JOB to tell us.

[Portastorm]

It's not like NHC has blown the forecast with Katrina. The southwest movement this evening has been predicted. There may have been some minor variances along the way ... but overall, the only significant change was the landfall forecast issued late this afternoon.

You know, they've been brilliant this year in terms of forecasting tracks. I'm pretty confident in NHC's abilities to keep us all safe and prepared.

[hicksta]

THe models keep moving W, its amazing how much they have changed today.. I mean a few hours ago pensacola was covered with models. Now there are some in middle LA

[rtd2]

What will the NHC fallout be if Katrina makes landfall west of New Orleans? In no way am I bashing the NHC but this storm is fooling all of us. Will heads roll?

I can understand why NHC is not calling for NOLA..that would create instant panic..and the city would be evacuated.

But if the NHC knows that it has a good chance of hitting nola...its their JOB to tell us.

Exactly Do a Search here for Dennis A couple Months ago! Same Situation people Kept Trashing the NHC cause Dennis kept getting ever so close to NOLA before it Finally turned...People couldnt Understand How a Major Cane could be less than 150 miles east of NOLA and the NHC hadnt called for an Evac. Why? They KNEW it would turn and It DID!

[Opal storm]

THe models keep moving W, its amazing how much they have changed today.. I mean a few hours ago pensacola was covered with models. Now there are some in middle LA

That's all it takes is a matter of hours for a shift.That's why nobody should let their gaurd down yet.

[goodlife]

When has the NHC EVER actually blown a forecast?? I mean blown it...I don't mean a wobble that took it 20-30 miles off the projected course.

[rtd2]

When has the NHC EVER actually blown a forecast?? I mean blown it...I don't mean a wobble that took it 20-30 miles off the projected course.

I'm sure they have but Not anything Major...Only talking track...Intensity is another story Althought the NHC is the First to admit they dont have a Handle on forecasting intensity yet!

[rtd2]

When has the NHC EVER actually blown a forecast?? I mean blown it...I don't mean a wobble that took it 20-30 miles off the projected course.

I'm sure they have but Not anything Major...Only talking track...Intensity is another story Although the NHC is the First to admit they dont have a Handle on forecasting intensity yet!

[MiamiensisWx]

For now I still expect the system to be approaching landfall eventually just east of New Orleans...

[InimanaChoogamaga]

When has the NHC EVER actually blown a forecast?? I mean blown it...I don't mean a wobble that took it 20-30 miles off the projected course.

They generally just make the cone big enough to ensure a successful forecast. But there is nothing very accurate about hurricane forecasting yet.

[fci]

When has the NHC EVER actually blown a forecast?? I mean blown it...I don't mean a wobble that took it 20-30 miles off the projected course.

They generally just make the cone big enough to ensure a successful forecast. But there is nothing very accurate about hurricane forecasting yet.

Amen.

[soonertwister]

I really think that when the 11 pm full comes out tonight that the official track will be right through NOLA or very close. Looking at the western shift of the models, it would be foolish for NHC to take a flyer with an outlier track on this storm, especially if it ending up going through NOLA, a place that needs all the warning time they can get.

So I'm predicting with significantly high probability that in about 2-1/2 hours NOLA will be right in the middle of the official track forecast.

[recmod]

The southwest movement this evening has been predicted.

At the risk of getting bashed, I have to disagree with this statement. The NHC NEVER predicted any SW movement until they had already seen it happening for several hours. Every advisory has insisted the storm would "shortly be turning W, then WNW"... which has still not started to occur.

This hurricane was supposed to be moving WNW tonight somewhere off the coast west of Fort Myers, not be drifting towards the SW off of Key West. Isn't that an error of almost 150 miles? (If my map calculations are correct). That would be more than twice the recent 5 yr 24 hour average error rate of 63 miles. But I think more important than this is the error the NHC predicted in the DIRECTION the hurricane would be moving by this point in time. This serious deviation in motion (SW vs. the predicted WNW movement) has huge consequences in the ultimate landfall location of the hurricane.

It is obvious that they did not have a frim grasp on the upper atmospheric dynamics that would create the steering currents for Katrina. I am in no way bashing the NHC...they do an outstanding job. I am just pointing out that nature continues to prove that we do not understand all the inner workings of what makes hurricanes tick and what determines where they ultimately go. Katrina is proving to be an especially difficult nut to crack. Unfortunately, the course the hurricane has chosen is a path that will ultimately make her a MUCH stronger hurricane at final landfall than was ever originally anticipated.

--Lou

[Portastorm]

recmod --- I'm not going to quibble and take up bandwith too much ... BUT ... what W-NW predicted movement are you talking about? Maybe two days ago NHC was saying that. In the last 24 hrs they have said west or west-southwest in their public advisories.

Rest of your post I'm in firm agreement.

[huricanwatcher]

THINK WE NEED A ********************MAGIC 8 BALL*******************

might get same results....

[caneflyer]

When has the NHC EVER actually blown a forecast?? I mean blown it...I don't mean a wobble that took it 20-30 miles off the projected course.

They generally just make the cone big enough to ensure a successful forecast. But there is nothing very accurate about hurricane forecasting yet.

No, not so. The width of the cone is determined precisely by the size of the NHC average error over the past 10 years. NHC indicates that the actual track falls completely within the cone about 2/3 of the time.