One important fact

[JTD]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

One thing that we should all take note of before we proclaim "day after tommorow" scenarios for New Orleans is that Katrina has not strengthened whatsoever since 11:30 a.m. and has remained steady at 100 mph. The rapid intensification that the NHC warned about at the special advisory discussion did not occur.

I would like to see some strengthening soon to actually believe these high-end intensity estimates.

Just IMO.

[The Expert]

That's just because the dry air is affecting it right now, it will be gone by tomorrow. That's when you'll really see her strengthen. Also, I think the original upgrade to 100mph was premature and she didn't actually attain that until about 2PM EST. This time tomorrow I guarantee Katrina to be a major hurricane.

[jkt21787]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

One thing that we should all take note of before we proclaim "day after tommorow" scenarios for New Orleans is that Katrina has not strengthened whatsoever since 11:30 a.m. and has remained steady at 100 mph. The rapid intensification that the NHC warned did not occur.

I would like to see some strengthening soon to actually believe these high-end intensity estimates.

Just my IMO.

JMO also, but the longer we wait before a rapid intensification cycle, the better the chance it will happen near landfall.

Remember hurricanes have a tough time keeping very strong strength for a long time, so the longer she waits until intensifying, the better the possibility that it will happen closer to land, no matter where that may be.

Something to perhaps keep in mind.

[JtSmarts]

I agree totally, I was thinking about that earlier. It would be better for her to ramp up soon so she could possibly make landfall right in the middle of an ERC.

[NewOrleans]

Which would be the worse case scenario for the area she makes landfall.

Do a little bit of research and you will understand about the worse sceanrio is when hurricanes are intensifying as they approach a coastline. It's about momentum.

[cjrciadt]

That's just because the dry air is affecting it right now, it will be gone by tomorrow. That's when you'll really see her strengthen. Also, I think the original upgrade to 100mph was premature and she didn't actually attain that until about 2PM EST. This time tomorrow I guarantee Katrina to be a major hurricane.

True look at this scenario:
Fri=70 to 110, Sat=110 to 130,Sun=130 to 150. I wont even go into right before landfall.

[LSU2001]

Something else to keep in mind. Mike Naso said on Radio NHCWX earlier that the pressure has kept dropping. What we may be seeing is a lag between dropping pressures and measured windspeed. Also a local met just said that Kat will be a Cat 2 tomorrow around noon according to NHC. Unless I am mistaken she is a Cat 2 now.
#

Category 2 Hurricane — winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Some damage to building roofs, doors and windows. Considerable damage to mobile homes. Flooding damages piers and small craft in unprotected moorings may break their moorings. Some trees blown down.
- Examples: Bonnie 1998, Georges(FL & LA) 1998 and Gloria 1985

[The Sum of all fears]

The Expert,
Your Right on that

[JTD]

Floyd, Dennis, Lili, etc. have all given me reason to be very skeptical regarding hurricane intensity.

That said, I don't discount at all a cat 3-5 in the slightest but "I'll believe it when I see it."

The dry air was a big problem until just before landfall for Katrina in Florida. Hopefully it will be in the GOM.

I hope this doesn't sound like I am disagreeing with NHC. No one respects them more than I do. I just don't see the strengthening yet and am a skeptic.