Invest 90L=Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I just got done reading the 5:30 discussion. In my mouth almost droped tot he floor? They said it is disorganized how On earth can it be disorganized when quickscats show a clearly defined LLC with 40 to 45 knot winds. With convection at least building over the northeast quad. I say this storm looks wonderful for the shear it has to deal with. I don't understand what they are looking at.

[krysof]

The NHC has lost its mind. Katrina is playing tricks, and they write up a bad outlook.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The NHC has lost its mind. Katrina is playing tricks, and they write up a bad outlook.

I think Katrina nocked them harder then we know last night.

[caribepr]

Ok, that's it. I'm going to hit the hammock with a good read, a good cocktail and hopefully go to sleep for about three days.

Which, of course, I won't - but right now it seems like a brilliant idea.

Can't get away from it...in the hammock, and along comes a friend to tell me about what's going on *out there*. I give up.

[rainstorm]

right now 97l is being blasted with shear. in fact, the whole atlantic is dominated by shear. kate is in the one place it could develop, sort of like andrew in 1992

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

NHC got hammered by Katrina last night, so I'll forgive them if
they ignore 97L for some time given that them and their families
are cleaning up from Katrina.

[Hyperstorm]

97L hasn't been ignored. It just isn't a classical tropical storm at this time! It could very well have been called a tropical depression a few days ago when the convection was MUCH closer to the LLC, but right now its large LLC is very far away from those vigorous thunderstorms.

As I mentioned earlier, this one has entered a region of STRONG wind shear which is keeping it in check. UL winds could let up as it moves northward during the next few days, so development is possible.

Why haven't they upgraded it? Because T-Numbers DON'T support a tropical cyclone at this time, even though they did a few days ago. When something is this far out in the Atlantic, the only estimates come from Dvorak or ship observations. Until they support tropical development, they WON'T upgrade it. Be sure about that.

Regarding 90L...it is a merger of the tropical wave that exited the coast of Africa right behind 97L and a new one a couple days ago. It has that classic look to it, that it will consolidate. It is QUITE broad at this time, but the two systems are in the process of merging. Once it does, this one will develop. I give it another 36-60 hours. That is by early next week.

The islands should watch out for this one because usually when a hurricane moves northward toward the Gulf Coast, a ridge strengthens or is displaced to the east near Bermuda. If that happens, this one could become a problem.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

For one the LLC is on the western side of the convection. In also quickscats show that it is closed with 40 knot winds over the northeast side. Also t numbers are known to not do a good job with sheared systems. The LLC is not far away. At least thats the way I see it. So it looks as good as Arlene/Alison. But I will give the nhc creit for keeping the energy at Katrina.

[krysof]

If it develops, where might it go?

[fci]

If they keep ignoring it, it may just blow up into a hurricane. Poor 97L has always been ignored. 90L won't get much attention either for now.

Until Katrina is inland and downgraded; neither 97L or 90L will get much attention.

And should they?

Only us weather geeks really care about 97L and 90L until someone is about 48-72 hours from a threat.

The NHC will be pretty much singularly focused on the big one; the others can wait.... for now.

[johngaltfla]

I didn't sleep much the last three days, and just now I think I'll get some sleep next week.

Wow. This is unbelievable. Will be get to "Lee" by the 30th? Yup, I think so.

1933, here we come.....

[jaxfladude]

I didn't sleep much the last three days, and just now I think I'll get some sleep next week.

Wow. This is unbelievable. Will be get to "Lee" by the 30th? Yup, I think so.

1933, here we come.....

"The 'Winds' Of 'Late' August"

[cycloneye]

00:00z Models.

[InimanaChoogamaga]

Those models are certainly not in agreement. Two look like a fish. Two look like Florida. And two S into the Caribbean.

[abajan]

Those models are certainly not in agreement. Two look like a fish. Two look like Florida. And two S into the Caribbean.

And (as usual) the UKMET has totally lost it!

[BensonTCwatcher]

I think the BAMS has the best handle at this point, although it is not really developed yet, it makes the most sense given the winds and steering features. Since it's below 20N the BAM models have some value.

[AussieMark]

00:00z Models.

UKMET looks crazy

[cycloneye]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
KATRINA...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...MOVING
AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
REMAINS POORLY-ORGANIZED. UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SYSTEM AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LESS
LIKELY.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS CENTERED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA HAVE DIMINISHED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA


97L aparently will not develop but 90 will take center stage after Katrina is gone.

[milankovitch]

18Z GFDL takes it to a major hurricane!

[cycloneye]

Interesting the GFDL intensity with this system although it makes it a fish.