Unbelievable Shift???

[Stormcenter]

Also the further west it goes, the more very warm water it has to work with. Is N.O. in serious danger?

I would say YES though I think a MS/AL landfall is more likely but if Katrina keeps on moving west Houston could be in the cone soon. .

[JTD]

Also the further west it goes, the more very warm water it has to work with. Is N.O. in serious danger?

I'd say this is a SERIOUS threat for N.O. at this time. At least the NHC got their new track out so the local media can alert the public on the evening news.

And that's why it was shifted so far west without waiting for new model runs. If New Orleans is going to evacuate, they gotta start it within the next 12-18 hours for the plan to work 100%

[krysof]

I really hope this doesn't happen. The damages would be catastrophic if this were to verify.

[canegrl04]

YIKES This turn of events sure is unexpected. So NO to Houston aren't out of the woods?

[krysof]

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlsto ... enter_maps





Shifting west and the center is on the LA and MS border.

[sunny]

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm12/projectedpath_large.html?from=wxcenter_maps





Shifting west and the center is on the LA and MS border.

Shall we begin reciting Hail Mary's?

[dwg71]

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm12/projectedpath_large.html?from=wxcenter_maps





Shifting west and the center is on the LA and MS border.

NHC has center point for landfall at the MS/AL Border

[krysof]

Your right it does, but who knows what the models will do with it.

[Galvestongirl]

hmmm, dose the texas coast need to be cocerned at this point? I am so unprepared for anything. I would have to get soooooo many supplies.

[raynpa]

Texas needs to keep their eyes on this system.

[hicksta]

Everyone always needs to keep an eye on a storm. Only god knows what will happen... Just wait and see!!!!!

[lman]

This could be a worse case scenario for New Orleans...if a CAT4/5

[hicksta]

If a cat 4/5 hit New orleans. It would be Catastrophic.. The damage would be breath taking. Peoples homes GONE. the city UNDERWATER. I would much rather have her take a U and go back to africa!!!

[dwg71]

I believe you will see a slight shift back to the east on the next model run. I'm a little surprised the NHC shifted so much west, that's out of character for them. I'll stick with FWB landfall, strong cat 3.

[JTD]

I believe you will see a slight shift back to the east on the next model run. I'm a little surprised the NHC shifted so much west, that's out of character for them. I'll stick with FWB landfall, strong cat 3.

New GFS is actually farther west, NAM is way south of even LA/TX border (although it's not reliable) and the Nogaps is unchanged.

No eastward shift yet though although it's certainly possible.

[traciepb]

Shush dwg, FWB can't take another direct hit! My childhood beach is almost gone as it is..

[wjs3]

You guys think the NHC is calling intensity loud and clear now because the intensification message didn't go out as strongly as it could have in S fla?

[Windy]

NHC is actually east of the model guidance. I think they're expecting a shift back to the east on the models. If that shift doesn't happen in the next couple runs, they'll probably shift their track even further west. That said, I trust their gut on this one; the models will probably shift back east a bit.