Hurricane Katrina

[storms in NC]

I did but it was a wobble wobble sorry

[StormsAhead]

Observation #: 26
Time: 19:13Z
Position: 25.8N 81.7W
Flight altitude: 3050 meters
Flight-level wind: SE (130°) 49 knots
Temperature/Dew Point: 10C/6C
Weather: Overcast
700mb Height: 3103 meters

URNT11 KNHC 261918
97779 19134 60258 81700 30500 13049 10063 /3103
RMK AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 26

[Stormcenter]

I did but it was a wobble wobble sorry

It was another wobble. It still looks like it's moving due west.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 261932
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 42 KNHC
1922 2603N 08207W 03052 0092 125 047 098 080 047 03191 0000000000
1922. 2603N 08209W 03055 0091 126 048 094 086 049 03193 0000000000
1923 2603N 08211W 03052 0091 123 048 100 080 049 03189 0000000000
1923. 2603N 08214W 03053 0091 121 048 096 090 048 03191 0000000000
1924 2603N 08216W 03052 0090 119 048 098 088 049 03189 0000000000
1924. 2603N 08218W 03054 0090 118 048 096 086 048 03191 0000000000
1925 2603N 08221W 03052 0088 116 049 096 088 050 03187 0000000000
1925. 2603N 08223W 03052 0088 113 048 098 088 049 03186 0000000100
1926 2603N 08225W 03055 0086 110 048 096 096 049 03188 0000000000
1926. 2602N 08228W 03052 0086 110 049 100 084 049 03185 0000000000
1927 2602N 08230W 03051 0086 107 047 100 090 048 03184 0000000000
1927. 2602N 08232W 03054 0085 103 047 098 098 047 03186 0000000000
1928 2602N 08235W 03053 0084 099 048 098 098 049 03184 0000000000
1928. 2602N 08237W 03054 0083 097 050 102 102 051 03184 0000000000
1929 2602N 08240W 03053 0085 096 048 102 078 049 03184 0000000000
1929. 2602N 08242W 03052 0085 093 045 106 076 047 03184 0000000000
1930 2602N 08244W 03054 0085 091 043 110 076 044 03186 0000000000
1930. 2602N 08247W 03051 0085 091 044 110 096 045 03182 0000000000
1931 2602N 08249W 03053 0085 091 047 108 096 048 03184 0000000000
1931. 2602N 08252W 03055 0085 089 048 102 102 048 03187 0000000000

Wow look at the size of the windfield now...this is to the north of the storm.

[cycloneye]

How many NM it has expanded to the north?

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 261942
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 43 KNHC
1932 2602N 08254W 03053 0086 088 047 100 100 047 03185 0000000000
1932. 2602N 08256W 03052 0086 085 045 104 096 046 03185 0000000000
1933 2602N 08259W 03053 0086 085 045 108 090 045 03185 0000000000
1933. 2602N 08301W 03053 0087 086 045 106 100 046 03186 0000000000
1934 2602N 08304W 03052 0087 083 046 104 092 047 03185 0000000000
1934. 2602N 08306W 03054 0087 085 047 102 094 047 03188 0000000000
1935 2601N 08308W 03052 0087 085 044 106 090 044 03186 0000000000
1935. 2601N 08311W 03054 0088 080 043 110 082 045 03189 0000000000
1936 2601N 08313W 03051 0088 074 045 120 072 046 03186 0000000000
1936. 2601N 08315W 03053 0089 071 043 116 074 044 03189 0000000000
1937 2601N 08318W 03055 0089 070 046 120 056 046 03191 0000000100
1937. 2601N 08320W 03051 0089 068 046 120 054 046 03187 0000000100
1938 2601N 08322W 03054 0091 067 045 120 054 045 03192 0000000000
1938. 2601N 08325W 03052 0091 065 046 120 054 046 03190 0000000000
1939 2601N 08327W 03053 0092 066 046 120 054 047 03191 0000000000
1939. 2601N 08329W 03052 0093 066 047 120 052 048 03191 0000000000
1940 2601N 08332W 03054 0093 067 047 116 054 048 03194 0000000000
1940. 2601N 08334W 03053 0095 067 046 116 054 046 03194 0000000000
1941 2601N 08337W 03052 0096 066 046 116 052 046 03194 0000000000
1941. 2601N 08339W 03053 0097 067 045 116 068 046 03197 0000000000

This is 88 NM away from the center, and the wind is 46 knots at FL (41 knots surface). TS-force winds extend farther through.

[James]

Looks like a faint eye may be appearing on the visible shots.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 261952
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 44 KNHC
1942 2600N 08341W 03053 0096 062 043 112 080 044 03196 0000000000
1942. 2600N 08344W 03052 0097 058 041 110 084 042 03196 0000000000
1943 2600N 08346W 03053 0097 055 040 110 076 041 03197 0000000000
1943. 2600N 08348W 03054 0099 051 039 110 070 040 03200 0000000000
1944 2600N 08350W 03053 0100 051 037 106 084 038 03199 0000000000
1944. 2600N 08353W 03053 0100 052 037 102 084 038 03199 0000000000
1945 2600N 08355W 03050 0100 052 038 106 078 039 03197 0000000000
1945. 2600N 08357W 03054 0102 046 039 102 080 039 03203 0000000000
1946 2600N 08359W 03051 0102 047 039 106 072 040 03201 0000000000
1946. 2600N 08401W 03055 0104 047 039 102 070 040 03205 0000000000
1947 2600N 08403W 03052 0104 051 038 100 078 039 03203 0000000000
1947. 2600N 08406W 03053 0105 053 040 100 076 040 03204 0000000000
1948 2600N 08408W 03052 0106 050 039 102 068 040 03206 0000000000
1948. 2600N 08410W 03054 0106 049 039 102 072 039 03207 0000000000
1949 2559N 08412W 03052 0107 047 039 106 064 039 03206 0000000100
1949. 2559N 08414W 03053 0107 043 038 108 054 039 03207 0000000000
1950 2559N 08417W 03054 0108 044 037 106 064 038 03208 0000000000
1950. 2559N 08419W 03052 0110 043 036 100 066 036 03209 0000000000
1951 2559N 08421W 03060 0116 041 036 106 060 036 03223 0000000000
1951. 2557N 08421W 03051 0113 037 034 102 064 036 03211 0000000000

Using 90% reduction, that's tropical storm-force wind 105-110 NM northwest of the center.

[txwatcher91]

Looks like a faint eye may be appearing on the visible shots.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html
Go down to the GOES-EAST Visible - Storm Relative and select the loop. A faint eye is beginning to form from what I can tell.

[StormsAhead]

Observation #: 27
Time: 19:51Z
Position: 25.9N 84.3W
Flight altitude: 3050 meters
Flight-level wind: NE (40°) 33 knots
Temperature/Dew Point: 10C/6C
Weather: Overcast
700mb Height: 3118 meters

URNT11 KNHC 261958
97779 19514 60259 84300 30500 04033 10063 /3118
RMK AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 27

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 262002
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 45 KNHC
1952 2556N 08419W 03050 0108 039 031 102 068 031 03205 0000000000
1952. 2555N 08418W 03053 0106 038 032 104 066 033 03206 0000000000
1953 2553N 08416W 03053 0105 037 034 110 054 035 03205 0000000000
1953. 2552N 08415W 03053 0105 039 033 108 064 034 03205 0000000000
1954 2551N 08414W 03053 0103 042 035 106 066 035 03203 0000000000
1954. 2550N 08412W 03054 0102 039 035 108 064 035 03203 0000000000
1955 2548N 08411W 03053 0102 040 035 106 074 036 03201 0000000000
1955. 2547N 08409W 03053 0100 039 035 102 086 036 03199 0000000000
1956 2546N 08408W 03054 0098 034 034 098 096 035 03199 0000000000
1956. 2545N 08407W 03052 0097 033 034 100 098 035 03195 0000000000
1957 2544N 08405W 03054 0096 034 035 100 098 035 03196 0000000000
1957. 2542N 08404W 03053 0093 033 035 100 094 035 03193 0000000000
1958 2541N 08402W 03052 0093 030 035 098 094 036 03192 0000000000
1958. 2540N 08401W 03053 0091 034 035 104 088 035 03191 0000000000
1959 2539N 08400W 03054 0090 033 033 104 096 034 03190 0000000000
1959. 2537N 08358W 03053 0087 036 035 104 104 037 03187 0000000000
2000 2536N 08357W 03052 0086 038 037 104 104 038 03184 0000000100
2000. 2535N 08356W 03054 0084 041 036 104 098 036 03184 0000000000
2001 2534N 08354W 03052 0082 039 036 106 092 036 03181 0000000000
2001. 2532N 08353W 03054 0080 035 035 106 092 036 03181 0000000000

Going to make a NW-SE pass now...

[James]

Thanks for the link. Looks like there is also a strong flare up of convection occuring in that area as well.

[Liberty30]

On Key West Radar it looks to have stalled. Any ideas on how might this affect the path?

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 262012
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 46 KNHC
2002 2531N 08351W 03052 0079 031 034 110 092 034 03178 0000000000
2002. 2530N 08350W 03054 0077 030 033 114 090 033 03177 0000000000
2003 2529N 08349W 03053 0075 031 035 112 100 036 03175 0000000000
2003. 2527N 08347W 03049 0072 033 035 116 088 035 03168 0000000000
2004 2526N 08346W 03055 0071 035 038 116 084 039 03172 0000000000
2004. 2525N 08344W 03054 0069 035 041 120 076 041 03170 0000000000
2005 2524N 08343W 03052 0067 034 042 124 074 042 03166 0000000000
2005. 2522N 08342W 03053 0064 032 044 126 070 044 03164 0000000000
2006 2521N 08340W 03052 0062 031 043 126 068 044 03161 0000000000
2006. 2520N 08339W 03054 0060 031 044 126 066 045 03161 0000000000
2007 2519N 08337W 03054 0057 029 046 126 066 047 03157 0000000000
2007. 2517N 08336W 03053 0054 030 047 126 072 048 03153 0000000000
2008 2516N 08335W 03053 0052 029 045 116 086 045 03152 0000000000
2008. 2515N 08333W 03053 0049 028 042 108 090 043 03149 0000000000
2009 2514N 08331W 03052 0046 026 042 106 076 042 03145 0000000000
2009. 2513N 08330W 03053 0044 025 042 110 076 043 03144 0000000000
2010 2512N 08328W 03053 0041 025 043 108 086 043 03142 0000000000
2010. 2511N 08327W 03052 0039 027 043 106 096 044 03137 0000000000
2011 2510N 08325W 03054 0035 027 046 106 088 047 03136 0000000000
2011. 2509N 08323W 03052 0031 034 049 110 092 051 03129 0000000100

[txwatcher91]

WOW, it looks like it might be finally be wrapping some rain bands around the north and northeast eyewall.
http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... entery=240

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 262022
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 47 KNHC
2012 2508N 08322W 03053 0027 035 051 108 096 051 03127 0000000000
2012. 2507N 08321W 03053 0022 037 052 110 110 053 03121 0000000000
2013 2506N 08319W 03054 0019 035 053 110 110 054 03120 0000000000
2013. 2505N 08318W 03052 0014 034 055 112 110 055 03113 0000000000
2014 2504N 08316W 03057 0009 029 055 110 110 056 03113 0000000000
2014. 2503N 08314W 03049 0003 030 054 104 104 055 03099 0000000000
2015 2502N 08313W 03054 5003 027 055 102 102 055 03098 0000000000
2015. 2501N 08311W 03054 5008 025 058 108 102 060 03093 0000000000
2016 2500N 08310W 03055 5014 022 061 114 094 061 03087 0000000000
2016. 2459N 08308W 03051 5025 020 060 122 090 061 03073 0000000000
2017 2458N 08307W 03054 5036 017 060 128 084 061 03064 0000000000
2017. 2457N 08305W 03051 5049 027 062 146 074 064 03048 0000000000
2018 2457N 08303W 03054 5063 033 062 148 078 063 03038 0000000000
2018. 2456N 08302W 03049 5079 038 068 168 072 069 03016 0000000000
2019 2455N 08300W 03055 5097 041 065 172 094 066 03005 0000000000
2019. 2454N 08259W 03057 5117 038 066 180 102 066 02986 0000000000
2020 2454N 08257W 03045 5143 045 064 196 104 066 02949 0000000000
2020. 2453N 08256W 03059 5165 050 060 186 108 062 02940 0000000000
2021 2452N 08254W 03058 5182 041 041 178 110 045 02923 0000000000
2021. 2451N 08253W 03042 5192 049 023 174 104 026 02897 0000000000

Weak wind (highest 69 knots), but heights have dropped.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 262034
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 48 KNHC
2022 2450N 08252W 03040 5196 061 019 158 112 022 02890 0000000000
2022. 2448N 08251W 03043 5197 072 012 166 108 013 02893 0000000000
2023 2446N 08250W 03047 5199 063 005 168 108 009 02895 0000000100
2023. 2445N 08250W 03034 5195 252 019 164 110 021 02885 0000000100
2024 2443N 08250W 03043 5192 271 018 164 114 020 02897 0000000000
2024. 2444N 08252W 03047 5193 306 019 170 106 020 02901 0000000000
2025 2445N 08253W 03035 5197 320 016 168 112 019 02884 0000000000
2025. 2446N 08254W 03046 5193 359 023 164 114 027 02899 0000000000
2026 2447N 08255W 03044 5187 005 030 172 116 033 02903 0000000000
2026. 2448N 08257W 03038 5179 013 045 166 116 053 02905 0000000000
2027 2449N 08258W 03044 5167 015 058 172 118 064 02924 0000000000
2027. 2450N 08259W 03047 5152 008 066 182 094 067 02942 0000000000
2028 2451N 08300W 03040 5139 010 064 178 094 065 02947 0000000000
2028. 2452N 08301W 03046 5122 018 063 164 110 064 02970 0000000000
2029 2453N 08302W 03037 5108 022 066 158 116 069 02976 0000000000
2029. 2454N 08303W 03044 5092 025 067 154 116 068 02999 0000000000
2030 2455N 08304W 03043 5078 029 067 154 100 068 03012 0000000000
2030. 2456N 08305W 03042 5064 028 064 154 086 064 03025 0000000000
2031 2458N 08306W 03044 5048 028 067 148 074 068 03043 0000000000
2031. 2459N 08308W 03042 5037 035 068 136 076 069 03052 0000000000

Max. 69 knots...but heights are quite a bit lower. I think the pressure for the advisory came from the lower heights.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

...KATRINA CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE
FLORIDA KEYS...
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FOR MAINLAND FLORIDA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR PENINSULAR
FLORIDA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY LARGO SOUTH AND WESTWARD TO KEY WEST AND
THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST OR ABOUT 70
MILES... WEST-NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. THIS MOTION
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY THREE
...MAJOR... HURRICANE TODAY AND ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 81 MPH WITH A
GUST TO 105 MPH WAS REPORTED AT DRY TORTUGAS C-MAN STATION LOCATED
IN THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL. SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE
ARE STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...WHILE WIND
GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM-FORCE ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER FLORIDA KEYS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW EAST OF CAPE SABLE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES
OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
15 TO 20 INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER NORTHWESTERN CUBA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...24.8 N... 82.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Opal storm]

in the last few frames I have seen a wnw turn but have to see if it stays. You know the "W" word

To me it looks like it's moving due west now,I don't see the WSW movement anymore.

[Brent]

HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
2100Z FRI AUG 26 2005

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR PENINSULAR
FLORIDA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY LARGO SOUTH AND WESTWARD TO KEY WEST AND
THE DRY TORTUGAS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 82.9W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 35SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 55SW 35NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 82.9W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 82.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 24.9N 83.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 25.2N 85.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 25.8N 86.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.9N 87.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 65NE 65SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 30.0N 88.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 65NE 65SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 35.0N 86.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 40.5N 79.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 82.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART