Retreating Ridge

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8250
Age: 52
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Retreating Ridge

#1 Postby jasons2k » Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:43 pm

Looking at ridge analysis, looks to me the ridge is indeed retreating west and Katrina should be turning soon.

With that said, stick with the NHC, I think they have a good handle on this one:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... lm1-2.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... lm1-1.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html
0 likes   

User avatar
HouTXmetro
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: District of Columbia, USA

Re: Retreating Ridge

#2 Postby HouTXmetro » Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:46 pm

jschlitz wrote:Looking at ridge analysis, looks to me the ridge is indeed retreating west and Katrina should be turning soon.

With that said, stick with the NHC, I think they have a good handle on this one:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... lm1-2.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... lm1-1.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html


I'm sorry, I'm NO expert.... But to me it looks like the H over FLA and the H over Louisana are merging and that would bring Trina much further west..... I could be wrong and maybe I'm looking at the wrong thing.
0 likes   
[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]

User avatar
loon
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 655
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 4:50 pm
Location: Downtown Houston

#3 Postby loon » Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:48 pm

I didn't think the 750 layers would steer as much as the 300 layers as she gets larger and stronger?
0 likes   

User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:

#4 Postby skysummit » Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:49 pm

Until I see a southerly flow in the central to eastern gulf, I won't buy it. I do see the ridge moving over to the west though.
0 likes   

dwg71
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2349
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:34 pm

#5 Postby dwg71 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:54 pm

skysummit wrote:Until I see a southerly flow in the central to eastern gulf, I won't buy it. I do see the ridge moving over to the west though.


Southern flow is coming off the MS/ GREAT state of AL border right now. Storms just south of NOLA are moving almost Due South.
0 likes   

Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#6 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:56 pm

loon wrote:I didn't think the 750 layers would steer as much as the 300 layers as she gets larger and stronger?


You are correct. 300MB is a much better steering layer than 700MB for strong storms.
0 likes   

kevin

#7 Postby kevin » Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:58 pm

whats up with Alabama being a great state? did it recieve a reputation boost of some sort? :?:

Just curious. No offense intended
0 likes   

User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:

#8 Postby skysummit » Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:59 pm

dwg71 wrote:
skysummit wrote:Until I see a southerly flow in the central to eastern gulf, I won't buy it. I do see the ridge moving over to the west though.


Southern flow is coming off the MS/ GREAT state of AL border right now. Storms just south of NOLA are moving almost Due South.


Oopsss....when I said southerly flow, I meant actually coming from the south.
0 likes   

dwg71
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2349
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:34 pm

#9 Postby dwg71 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:59 pm

kevin wrote:whats up with Alabama being a great state? did it recieve a reputation boost of some sort? :?:


I insulted AL yesterday, by pointing out its shortcomings as to the length of its coastline, and caught flack for it.
0 likes   

Rainband

#10 Postby Rainband » Fri Aug 26, 2005 3:00 pm

dwg71 wrote:
kevin wrote:whats up with Alabama being a great state? did it recieve a reputation boost of some sort? :?:


I insulted AL yesterday, by pointing out its shortcomings as to the length of its coastline, and caught flack for it.
:lol: :lol: :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
HouTXmetro
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: District of Columbia, USA

#11 Postby HouTXmetro » Fri Aug 26, 2005 3:01 pm

dwg71 wrote:
skysummit wrote:Until I see a southerly flow in the central to eastern gulf, I won't buy it. I do see the ridge moving over to the west though.


Southern flow is coming off the MS/ GREAT state of AL border right now. Storms just south of NOLA are moving almost Due South.


I'm confused, how can Katrina move North into a Due South flow?
0 likes   
[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]

kevin

#12 Postby kevin » Fri Aug 26, 2005 3:01 pm

Oh they implied you were referring to its socioeconomic status. Don't mess with Alabamers! As the saying goes, if at first you don't secede try try try again. :D
0 likes   

dwg71
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2349
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:34 pm

#13 Postby dwg71 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 3:04 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:
dwg71 wrote:
skysummit wrote:Until I see a southerly flow in the central to eastern gulf, I won't buy it. I do see the ridge moving over to the west though.


Southern flow is coming off the MS/ GREAT state of AL border right now. Storms just south of NOLA are moving almost Due South.


I'm confused, how can Katrina move North into a Due South flow?


It cant, but that shows the eastern edge of the ridge. It is forecast to erode on the NE side and move W. Allowing KAT to come on in. The northern flow to look for would be on the Eastern side of the High in the Atlantic.
0 likes   

dwg71
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2349
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:34 pm

#14 Postby dwg71 » Fri Aug 26, 2005 3:08 pm

kevin wrote:Oh they implied you were referring to its socioeconomic status. Don't mess with Alabamers! As the saying goes, if at first you don't secede try try try again. :D


Exactly, but I did insinuate something along those lines in jest. 8-)
0 likes   

3rdEyeOutFlow
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 23
Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:52 am
Location: Foley, Alabama

#15 Postby 3rdEyeOutFlow » Fri Aug 26, 2005 3:13 pm

dwg71 Didn't insult any one. It was all a ruse perpitrated by me. But dawg is a good dude and he was just being cool about it. I don't see any signs of weakening in the ridge, of course I'm just a novice, but where is the short wave trough? Is there an eastern ridge building? Could it kick it even farther west, say LA?
0 likes   

User avatar
EyeOfTheStorm
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 26
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 2:20 pm
Location: Texas

Re: Retreating Ridge

#16 Postby EyeOfTheStorm » Fri Aug 26, 2005 3:33 pm

jschlitz wrote:Looking at ridge analysis, looks to me the ridge is indeed retreating west and Katrina should be turning soon.

With that said, stick with the NHC, I think they have a good handle on this one:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... lm1-2.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... lm1-1.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html


LOL........yeah ok!
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 309 guests