Models Getting Tighter

[jax]

the models are starting to get a little tighter around the mouth
of the Mississippi river... still waiting on the rest of the 1700z
models to post here... 2 turn north and the other 2 turn NE


Edit... the 1800z are out... the NHC is the outlier now...


http://weather.net-waves.com/td12.php

[AL Chili Pepper]

They were tightly clustered around Panama City last night. I'm getting a headache.

[wxcrazytwo]

I would not call that a tight cluster.

[Derecho]

I would not call that a tight cluster.

Couple things:

1) the Netwaves map doesn't show important models like the GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF, all of which are tightly clustered around LA/MS.

2) It includes the utterly worthless, and always to be ignored, A98E.

3) The Netwaves map isn't updated with the latest BAMD and BAMM, which are both into Louisiana now.

Believe me, of the useful models, they're shockingly well clustered around LA/MS at the moment.

[jax]

I would not call that a tight cluster.

tighter... not at landfall... but near the mouth of the river...
4 of them within 50 miles of each other and 5 within 75 miles...
that's tighter...IMHO

[jkt21787]

Add in the globals (mostly not on there) and its still a very tight cluster into LA/MS area, especially for the time period.

[Droop12]

Doesnt matter much at the moment. They all shifted yesterday afternoon, and I'd expect that to continue with tonights runs...we'll know by tomorrow afternoon where she may be heading. Anyone want to take a guess on where watches go up? I think tonight at 5pm or 11pm, Hurricane watches will go up from Mouth of the Miss. to Applachicola. I know thats a large area, but its all fair game. Thoughts?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Anywhere but Fl would be a welcome Respit for the Handle...This can be the Best/Worst case senario...

[loon]

By 12 hours from now, they'll be pointing to Houston. This is my prediction for the year. I shall be a martyr..

cheers,
loon

[wxcrazytwo]

I just don't see the round-a-bout pattern that the models are showing..

[BayouVenteux]

Doesnt matter much at the moment. They all shifted yesterday afternoon, and I'd expect that to continue with tonights runs...we'll know by tomorrow afternoon where she may be heading. Anyone want to take a guess on where watches go up? I think tonight at 5pm or 11pm, Hurricane watches will go up from Mouth of the Miss. to Applachicola. I know thats a large area, but its all fair game. Thoughts?

Not a bad initial call considering the storm's potential intensity in the northern Gulf. Gives people - outside of the Gulf Shores to Destin semi-permanent hurricane magnet zone of course - time to do the preps they ought to have done back in June.

[rtd2]

I would not call that a tight cluster.

Couple things:

1) the Netwaves map doesn't show important models like the GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF, all of which are tightly clustered around LA/MS.

2) It includes the utterly worthless, and always to be ignored, A98E.

3) The Netwaves map isn't updated with the latest BAMD and BAMM, which are both into Louisiana now.

Believe me, of the useful models, they're shockingly well clustered around LA/MS at the moment.

GOOD points

[Hurrilurker]

Why is the NHC track significantly east of all the models? Are they just lagging the new model runs or do they see something else?

[wankelman]

Looking at most recent Radar out of Key West (EYW), looks like the motion has slowed down a bit. Anyone else see this?

[Brent]

Why is the NHC track significantly east of all the models? Are they just lagging the new model runs or do they see something else?

At 11am, they weren't east of everyone else.

[jax]

Why is the NHC track significantly east of all the models? Are they just lagging the new model runs or do they see something else?

they tend not to jump to quick at any model trend... smooths out
the forcast... they dend to only make any real changes at 4am, 11am,
5pm, and and 11pm... only minor ajustments on the "in betrwwens"
JMHO

[jkt21787]

Though NHC is an east outlier, they will have to shift west at 5 because of the overwhelming model support.

However, I do not believe NHC will shift significantly west. They will probably indicate a AL/FL border region landfall give or take a few miles. They won't shift to MS and certainly not to LA though model guidance strongly favors this at this time. So they will still be a good bit east of guidance more than likely.

NHC will not jump on a major shift on the models so quickly, in case it changes back. If the trend continues at 00z with this guidance showing similar scenarios, then more significant shifts are likely late tonight or earl tomorrow.

IMO, I think the models are on the right track but perhaps a bit further west. MS and AL would be my most targeted zone at this time.

[PTrackerLA]

If the next runs come in similar are even closer clustered new New Orleans I'm gonna start getting very worried. I had almost written off Katrina 24 hours ago as a Louisiana threat and now this...

[Air Force Met]

Though NHC is an east outlier, they will have to shift west at 5 because of the overwhelming model support.

However, I do not believe NHC will shift significantly west. They will probably indicate a AL/FL border region landfall give or take a few miles. They won't shift to MS and certainly not to LA though model guidance strongly favors this at this time. So they will still be a good bit east of guidance more than likely.

NHC will not jump on a major shift on the models so quickly, in case it changes back. If the trend continues at 00z with this guidance showing similar scenarios, then more significant shifts are likely late tonight or earl tomorrow.

IMO, I think the models are on the right track but perhaps a bit further west. MS and AL would be my most targeted zone at this time.

Correct. They will not shift it west of AL/FL state line...IMO. They will ease it over about 60-90 miles at a time until they are happy with it. So...if models continue to show SELA/MS area...expect to see the NHC match it by 5am tomorrow morning.

[sunny]

If the next runs come in similar are even closer clustered new New Orleans I'm gonna start getting very worried. I had almost written off Katrina 24 hours ago as a Louisiana threat and now this...

Makes two of us. Good thing I am at home, cause I would be useless if I were at work.