Hurricane Katrina

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StormsAhead
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#781 Postby StormsAhead » Fri Aug 26, 2005 1:24 pm

Observation #: 22
Time: 18:15Z
Position: 23.5N 84.1W
Flight altitude: 3040 meters
Flight-level wind: WNW (300°) 30 knots
Temperature/Dew Point: 11C/7C
Weather: Rain
700mb Height: 3127 meters
Surface Wind: NW (310°) 35 knots

URNT11 KNHC 261820
97779 18154 60235 84100 30400 30030 11078 /3127
43135
RMK AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 22
Last edited by StormsAhead on Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Javlin
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#782 Postby Javlin » Fri Aug 26, 2005 1:36 pm

Not Yet Sky I think I want to see what the 00Z runs do first.I have to say this has been one impressive storm to track.Everything is so much up in the air still "man it's addictive".
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StormsAhead
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#783 Postby StormsAhead » Fri Aug 26, 2005 1:39 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 261832
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 36 KNHC
1822 2350N 08345W 03047 0100 309 034 112 064 035 03195 0000000000
1822. 2351N 08343W 03048 0099 306 033 114 068 034 03194 0000000000
1823 2353N 08342W 03048 0099 304 034 110 078 036 03194 0000000000
1823. 2354N 08341W 03048 0098 303 035 110 078 036 03194 0000000000
1824 2355N 08339W 03048 0097 301 037 108 072 038 03192 0000000000
1824. 2357N 08338W 03047 0095 306 039 112 068 039 03190 0000000000
1825 2358N 08336W 03049 0093 305 038 110 070 039 03190 0000000000
1825. 2359N 08335W 03047 0091 308 036 118 078 036 03185 0000000000
1826 2400N 08334W 03048 0090 310 036 116 080 036 03185 0000000000
1826. 2402N 08332W 03049 0088 310 036 112 082 036 03184 0000000000
1827 2403N 08331W 03048 0087 308 036 110 086 036 03181 0000000000
1827. 2404N 08329W 03048 0086 308 036 112 086 036 03181 0000000000
1828 2406N 08328W 03048 0084 307 036 110 090 037 03179 0000000000
1828. 2407N 08327W 03049 0083 306 035 110 086 036 03179 0000000000
1829 2408N 08326W 03047 0081 307 036 110 086 037 03175 0000000000
1829. 2410N 08324W 03048 0079 307 038 110 088 039 03175 0000000000
1830 2411N 08323W 03049 0079 304 038 106 094 038 03175 0000000000
1830. 2412N 08322W 03047 0077 305 039 108 082 039 03171 0000000000
1831 2414N 08321W 03048 0075 307 041 110 072 042 03170 0000000000
1831. 2415N 08319W 03047 0071 306 041 116 068 042 03166 0000000000

Recon will soon be passing through the SW eyewall. That is where the highest winds measured so far (87 knots) occurred.
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drezee
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#784 Postby drezee » Fri Aug 26, 2005 1:39 pm

Would love to get a NOAA plane into the upper atmosphere for sampling...
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StormsAhead
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#785 Postby StormsAhead » Fri Aug 26, 2005 1:43 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 261842
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 37 KNHC
1832 2417N 08318W 03049 0070 307 041 112 084 042 03166 0000000000
1832. 2418N 08317W 03048 0066 308 042 112 088 042 03161 0000000000
1833 2419N 08316W 03049 0062 305 043 110 096 044 03158 0000000000
1833. 2421N 08315W 03046 0059 309 048 110 110 048 03152 0000000000
1834 2422N 08313W 03049 0055 303 046 106 106 047 03151 0000000000
1834. 2423N 08312W 03048 0052 303 044 110 094 045 03146 0000000000
1835 2425N 08311W 03048 0049 305 043 110 104 043 03144 0000000000
1835. 2426N 08310W 03049 0046 308 045 104 104 047 03142 0000000000
1836 2428N 08308W 03046 0042 307 048 098 098 049 03135 0000000000
1836. 2429N 08307W 03049 0037 310 046 100 100 047 03133 0000000000
1837 2430N 08306W 03049 0031 312 048 098 098 050 03127 0000000000
1837. 2432N 08305W 03047 0025 310 049 098 098 050 03119 0000000000
1838 2433N 08304W 03047 0020 309 052 088 088 053 03114 0000000000
1838. 2434N 08302W 03049 0013 315 055 090 090 055 03109 0000000000
1839 2436N 08301W 03047 0006 315 057 098 098 058 03100 0000000000
1839. 2437N 08300W 03052 5003 316 061 104 104 061 03096 0000000000
1840 2438N 08259W 03047 5013 310 064 084 084 064 03080 0000000100
1840. 2439N 08257W 03045 5028 317 067 086 086 069 03064 0000000100
1841 2440N 08256W 03051 5044 319 076 110 110 080 03053 0000000000
1841. 2441N 08255W 03058 5064 314 081 110 110 083 03041 0000000000

83 knots so far...
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Javlin
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#786 Postby Javlin » Fri Aug 26, 2005 1:44 pm

I am waitng for the eye to poke out sometime today get off these radars and go to sats.
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StormsAhead
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#787 Postby StormsAhead » Fri Aug 26, 2005 1:54 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 261852
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 38 KNHC
1842 2443N 08253W 03036 5078 314 079 114 114 081 03005 0000000000
1842. 2444N 08252W 03051 5100 319 078 124 124 079 02998 0000000000
1843 2445N 08250W 03046 5125 320 078 132 124 080 02967 0000000000
1843. 2446N 08249W 03057 5149 313 061 134 134 067 02955 0000000000
1844 2447N 08248W 03037 5167 316 041 144 140 048 02916 0000000000
1844. 2449N 08247W 03067 5173 334 019 152 126 026 02941 0000000000
1845 2450N 08245W 03037 5175 006 005 158 118 009 02909 0000000000
1845. 2450N 08243W 03065 5172 153 008 166 108 013 02939 0000000000
1846 2451N 08241W 03054 5166 181 018 160 110 021 02934 0000000000
1846. 2449N 08240W 03054 5162 201 020 166 108 021 02939 0000000000
1847 2448N 08242W 03050 5169 214 018 180 104 020 02927 0000000000
1847. 2447N 08243W 03058 5167 252 016 170 114 022 02937 0000000000
1848 2447N 08245W 03051 5162 279 019 168 116 023 02935 0000000000
1848. 2448N 08245W 03057 5174 328 001 164 114 004 02929 0000000000
1849 2450N 08245W 03053 5176 112 006 156 114 010 02924 0000000000
1849. 2452N 08245W 03048 5176 121 014 156 114 019 02919 0000000000
1850 2453N 08243W 03053 5175 126 026 166 108 029 02925 0000000000
1850. 2455N 08242W 03050 5166 122 036 162 110 040 02931 0000000000
1851 2456N 08241W 03056 5157 117 045 166 120 046 02945 0000000000
1851. 2457N 08239W 03051 5145 125 057 158 144 062 02953 0000000000

83 knots remains the highest.
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Andy_L
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#788 Postby Andy_L » Fri Aug 26, 2005 1:56 pm

jkt21787 wrote:Haven't seen this posted in a while, but the basic model plots...
Image
The new GFDL just updated, it will be about an hour until the others update for 18z. Given the 12z GFS, I would expect more west shifts...


wow...looking at that graphic...the NHC is the east outlier?????
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StormsAhead
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#789 Postby StormsAhead » Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:04 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 261902
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 39 KNHC
1852 2458N 08238W 03052 5124 123 073 144 140 082 02975 0000000000
1852. 2459N 08237W 03050 5102 121 088 158 108 091 02994 0000000000
1853 2500N 08236W 03050 5082 121 094 146 088 094 03014 0000000000
1853. 2501N 08235W 03059 5062 121 083 134 096 086 03043 0000000000
1854 2502N 08233W 03056 5043 123 081 132 088 084 03059 0000000000
1854. 2503N 08232W 03051 5032 124 075 134 082 075 03066 0000000000
1855 2504N 08231W 03052 5026 125 073 142 072 074 03073 0000000000
1855. 2505N 08230W 03052 5014 131 069 128 082 071 03085 0000000000
1856 2506N 08228W 03054 5006 131 066 126 088 067 03095 0000000000
1856. 2508N 08227W 03050 0001 136 062 124 108 063 03097 0000000000
1857 2509N 08226W 03055 0010 142 061 110 110 063 03112 0000000000
1857. 2510N 08224W 03051 0016 139 059 116 108 060 03114 0000000000
1858 2511N 08223W 03053 0023 139 059 110 110 060 03123 0000000000
1858. 2512N 08222W 03053 0029 143 055 082 082 055 03129 0000000000
1859 2514N 08220W 03056 0034 144 054 094 094 056 03137 0000000000
1859. 2515N 08219W 03051 0037 135 050 114 114 051 03135 0000000000
1900 2516N 08217W 03055 0040 133 051 112 112 053 03141 0000000000
1900. 2517N 08216W 03052 0042 130 052 112 108 052 03141 0000000000
1901 2518N 08215W 03057 0045 135 050 106 106 051 03149 0000000000
1901. 2520N 08213W 03048 0048 135 050 112 100 052 03143 0000000000

94 knots NE quad!!! So far, it seems like the surface winds are almost exactly the same as flight-level winds, not 10% less. If this remains true, Katrina is likely 90 knots or so.
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Sanibel
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#790 Postby Sanibel » Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:05 pm

Those deep red signatures on IR satellite while over land were telling us last night this was going to be a Gulf monster.

Strong gusts here under rainless disc. Disc clouds moving east to west...
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#791 Postby StormsAhead » Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:10 pm

URNT12 KNHC 261909
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/18:48:20Z
B. 24 deg 48 min N
082 deg 45 min W
C. 700 mb 2834 m
D. 45 kt
E. 225 deg 033 nm
F. 313 deg 083 kt
G. 232 deg 011 nm
H. 968 mb
I. 11 C/ 3060 m
J. 19 C/ 3049 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. E05/16/10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 23
MAX FL WIND 83 KT SE QUAD 14:40:40 Z
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#792 Postby fci » Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:11 pm

CaneCurious wrote:That makes me a little more nervous. Time to shake the boss' cage a little and find out what the plan is going to be for Monday.


I fear that Katrina is a "Big City Girl"
Veered SW to get Miami ; may have New Orleans on her mind.

THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST!!!
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StormsAhead
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#793 Postby StormsAhead » Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:13 pm

UZNT13 KNHC 261911
XXAA 76197 99248 70827 08142 99968 27214 31506 00794 ///// /////
92399 24810 31508 85142 23648 30506 70828 17456 17005 88999 77999
31313 09608 81845
61616 AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 24
62626 EYE SPL 2483N08273W 1849 MBL WND 31007 AEV 20507 DLM WND 30
508 967746 WL150 31006 075 =
XXBB 76198 99248 70827 08142 00968 27214 11889 23214 22850 23648
33771 19846 44758 21258 55727 20259 66705 18857 77696 16456
21212 00968 31506 11891 30512 22850 30506 33799 30010 44696 17005
31313 09608 81845
61616 AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 24
62626 EYE SPL 2483N08273W 1849 MBL WND 31007 AEV 20507 DLM WND 30
508 967746 WL150 31006 075 =

Pressure for the above vortex...
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#794 Postby StormsAhead » Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:17 pm

UZNT13 KNHC 261912
XXAA 76197 99250 70827 08152 99971 27408 09057 00764 ///// /////
92430 25815 11062 85176 23627 11566 70862 16218 12564 88999 77999
31313 09608 81851
61616 AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 25
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 2498N08271W 1854 MBL WND 10562 AEV 20507 DL
M WND 11564 970726 WL150 10063 082 =
XXBB 76198 99250 70827 08152 00971 27408 11850 23627 22817 23444
33726 17627 44706 17622 55697 15417
21212 00971 09057 11964 10066 22917 11061 33887 11566 44850 11566
55697 12563
31313 09608 81851
61616 AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 25
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 2498N08271W 1854 MBL WND 10562 AEV 20507 DL
M WND 11564 970726 WL150 10063 082 =

971mb and 57 knots at the surface...NE eyewall.
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#795 Postby StormsAhead » Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:17 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 261912
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 40 KNHC
1902 2521N 08212W 03057 0052 133 051 114 088 053 03156 0000000000
1902. 2522N 08211W 03050 0056 133 048 110 086 049 03153 0000000000
1903 2523N 08209W 03054 0057 134 046 110 080 047 03158 0000000000
1903. 2524N 08208W 03052 0058 131 045 108 082 046 03157 0000000000
1904 2525N 08207W 03053 0061 133 050 106 094 052 03161 0000000000
1904. 2527N 08205W 03054 0064 135 053 106 096 054 03164 0000000000
1905 2528N 08204W 03052 0067 132 050 108 092 051 03166 0000000000
1905. 2529N 08203W 03054 0068 131 048 106 094 049 03168 0000000000
1906 2530N 08201W 03052 0071 131 048 100 098 049 03169 0000000000
1906. 2531N 08200W 03056 0073 133 048 098 094 048 03175 0000000000
1907 2532N 08158W 03052 0075 135 052 096 096 055 03174 0000000000
1907. 2534N 08157W 03053 0077 137 056 090 090 057 03176 0000000000
1908 2535N 08156W 03052 0079 138 055 094 092 056 03178 0000000000
1908. 2536N 08154W 03053 0080 139 055 096 084 055 03179 0000000000
1909 2537N 08153W 03053 0081 139 056 096 080 058 03182 0000000000
1909. 2538N 08152W 03052 0082 141 056 094 078 057 03181 0000000000
1910 2540N 08150W 03054 0085 141 052 098 076 053 03186 0000000000
1910. 2541N 08149W 03053 0086 143 051 092 078 052 03186 0000000000
1911 2542N 08147W 03052 0088 145 052 086 076 052 03187 0000000000
1911. 2543N 08146W 03054 0090 145 051 084 082 051 03191 0000000000
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storms in NC
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#796 Postby storms in NC » Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:20 pm

in the last few frames I have seen a wnw turn but have to see if it stays. You know the "W" word :lol:
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Sanibel
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#797 Postby Sanibel » Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:21 pm

What I'm worried about is Irene showed her strength after she turned NE. This storm is showing a weak structure and persistent dry slot on the NNW edge, yet is still intensifying to 969 100mph never the less.

What I'm worried about is Katrina turning north bringing all her structure and outflows in symmetry. If it then strengthens above what it is now we can expect a monster in the northern Gulf...
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#798 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:24 pm

storms in NC wrote:in the last few frames I have seen a wnw turn but have to see if it stays. You know the "W" word :lol:


Didn't you post the same thing several hours ago?

Well I hope it starts turning northward sometime soon otherwise Texas will need to start worrying.
Last edited by Stormcenter on Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#799 Postby StormsAhead » Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:25 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 261922
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 41 KNHC
1912 2544N 08144W 03052 0091 144 052 080 080 053 03189 0000000000
1912. 2546N 08143W 03052 0091 144 050 086 086 051 03190 0000000000
1913 2547N 08142W 03055 0094 142 048 096 076 049 03195 0000000000
1913. 2548N 08140W 03052 0094 138 047 100 072 048 03192 0000000000
1914 2549N 08139W 03052 0093 133 049 104 062 049 03192 0000000000
1914. 2551N 08138W 03058 0096 136 048 096 072 049 03201 0000000000
1915 2553N 08138W 03049 0094 135 049 096 070 049 03190 0000000000
1915. 2554N 08140W 03053 0092 129 048 100 064 049 03192 0000000000
1916 2556N 08142W 03053 0085 130 047 098 066 048 03184 0000000000
1916. 2557N 08144W 03053 0082 129 050 096 064 050 03181 0000000000
1917 2559N 08145W 03051 0094 129 049 096 066 050 03192 0000000000
1917. 2600N 08147W 03055 0096 127 048 096 066 048 03198 0000000000
1918 2602N 08149W 03052 0097 126 047 096 064 047 03195 0000000000
1918. 2603N 08151W 03054 0098 124 047 096 066 047 03199 0000000000
1919 2603N 08153W 03052 0096 121 046 098 066 046 03195 0000000000
1919. 2603N 08155W 03052 0096 121 044 104 066 044 03194 0000000000
1920 2603N 08158W 03054 0095 126 044 102 068 045 03196 0000000000
1920. 2603N 08200W 03053 0095 125 045 104 068 046 03195 0000000000
1921 2603N 08202W 03053 0094 126 047 100 074 048 03194 0000000000
1921. 2603N 08204W 03052 0093 125 048 100 078 048 03192 0000000000
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#800 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 26, 2005 2:27 pm

Not sure where to put this... but

The missing family on the boat has been rescued off Everglades City. They were LUCKY.
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