Hurricane Katrina

[ALhurricane]

Well as a precautionary measure at this point, I have alerted my parents and my wife's parents, who all live in South Baldwin County, AL of the possibility of a visit from Katrina. Definitely not time to blare the sirens or everything, but it is a good idea for everbody on the northern Gulf Coast to take those first steps to make sure stuff is in order.

I am definitely becoming more concerned about a more western landfall.

[jkt21787]

Haven't seen this posted in a while, but the basic model plots...

The new GFDL just updated, it will be about an hour until the others update for 18z. Given the 12z GFS, I would expect more west shifts...

[StormsAhead]

Observation #: 21
Time: 17:32Z
Position: 26.2N 83.9W
Flight altitude: 3050 meters
Flight-level wind: NE (50°) 39 knots
Temperature/Dew Point: 12C/7C
Weather: Overcast
700mb Height: 3127 meters

URNT11 KNHC 261747
97779 17324 60262 83900 30500 05039 12073 /3127
RMK AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 21

[Brent]

Haven't seen this posted in a while, but the basic model plots...
The new GFDL just updated, it will be about an hour until the others update for 18z. Given the 12z GFS, I would expect more west shifts...

3 into SE LA and MS. Ouch.

[Derecho]

Actually all 4 of the NGP, GFS, GFDL, and UKMET are into LA or MS.

The GUNA consensus model (which typically is mirrored by the NHC forecast track) is now into the Western Mississippi coast.

[cycloneye]

663
WTNT32 KNHC 261758
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

...KATRINA MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD
TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE OR MAJOR
HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A WIND GUST TO 74 MPH WAS REPORTED
AT THE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN KEY WEST FLORIDA...A GUST TO 66 MPH
WAS REPORTED AT DRY TORTUGAS...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HIGHER
EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS MARATHON IN THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES
OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHWESTERN CUBA.
ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...24.9 N... 82.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 969 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 261752
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 32 KNHC
1742 2542N 08401W 03050 0110 035 035 114 064 035 03207 0000000000
1742. 2540N 08401W 03048 0109 033 035 110 066 035 03204 0000000000
1743 2538N 08401W 03048 0109 030 035 108 072 035 03203 0000000000
1743. 2536N 08401W 03048 0108 029 035 110 076 036 03202 0000000000
1744 2534N 08401W 03048 0108 028 035 110 076 036 03203 0000000000
1744. 2532N 08401W 03049 0108 025 036 106 084 036 03204 0000000000
1745 2530N 08401W 03048 0107 024 036 104 086 036 03202 0000000000
1745. 2528N 08401W 03048 0107 023 036 106 086 036 03202 0000000000
1746 2526N 08401W 03048 0107 023 036 106 086 036 03202 0000000000
1746. 2523N 08401W 03048 0106 023 036 106 084 037 03201 0000000000
1747 2521N 08401W 03048 0105 020 037 106 084 037 03200 0000000000
1747. 2519N 08401W 03048 0105 017 036 102 088 037 03200 0000000000
1748 2517N 08401W 03047 0104 013 037 094 094 037 03198 0000000000
1748. 2515N 08401W 03049 0104 011 037 090 090 038 03200 0000000000
1749 2513N 08401W 03047 0104 012 037 096 094 038 03198 0000000000
1749. 2511N 08401W 03049 0103 009 037 096 094 037 03199 0000000000
1750 2509N 08401W 03048 0103 007 037 096 094 037 03199 0000000000
1750. 2507N 08401W 03048 0103 006 038 096 096 038 03197 0000000000
1751 2505N 08402W 03047 0103 005 038 096 094 038 03196 0000000000
1751. 2502N 08402W 03049 0102 003 037 096 096 038 03198 0000000000

[drezee]

NHC Forecast at 5am for 2pm:

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 25.2N 82.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

Actual:

26/1800Z 24.9N 82.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

Will the 5pm advisory shift left?

[CaneCurious]

That makes me a little more nervous. Time to shake the boss' cage a little and find out what the plan is going to be for Monday.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 261802
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 33 KNHC
1752 2500N 08402W 03048 0102 001 036 096 096 036 03197 0000000000
1752. 2458N 08402W 03048 0101 360 037 096 096 038 03197 0000000000
1753 2456N 08402W 03047 0101 360 037 102 088 038 03195 0000000000
1753. 2454N 08402W 03047 0101 355 037 104 096 038 03195 0000000000
1754 2452N 08402W 03050 0102 356 037 102 098 038 03199 0000000000
1754. 2450N 08402W 03047 0102 353 036 100 094 037 03196 0000000000
1755 2448N 08402W 03047 0102 352 038 102 086 038 03196 0000000000
1755. 2446N 08402W 03049 0102 349 037 104 080 038 03198 0000000000
1756 2444N 08402W 03048 0102 347 038 110 074 038 03197 0000000000
1756. 2442N 08402W 03047 0102 347 039 108 074 040 03196 0000000000
1757 2439N 08402W 03049 0103 345 039 110 072 040 03199 0000000000
1757. 2437N 08402W 03047 0102 344 040 110 070 041 03196 0000000000
1758 2435N 08402W 03050 0104 343 041 110 064 042 03201 0000000000
1758. 2433N 08402W 03047 0104 340 041 110 062 041 03198 0000000000
1759 2431N 08402W 03048 0104 339 042 110 062 042 03199 0000000000
1759. 2429N 08402W 03048 0104 340 042 110 060 042 03199 0000000000
1800 2427N 08402W 03049 0104 341 042 110 060 043 03200 0000000000
1800. 2425N 08402W 03049 0104 342 043 108 062 044 03200 0000000000
1801 2422N 08402W 03047 0105 342 043 108 066 043 03199 0000000000
1801. 2420N 08402W 03048 0106 341 042 106 068 043 03200 0000000000

[Stormcenter]

The 2pm advisory has her moving WSW at 8 mph. This was not
anticipated per NHC's 10am discussion this morning. So what does this do to the future track?

[leonardo]

12z euro has also shifted left...

I can't really tell from the free graphics, but it looks to have landfall around Biloxi, very close to where the GFDL and UKMET have it.

the globals are getting a pretty decent little consensus here...still plenty of time though for it all to change

[Stormcenter]

NHC Forecast at 5am for 2pm:

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 25.2N 82.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

Actual:

26/1800Z 24.9N 82.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

Will the 5pm advisory shift left?

Does a duck quack?

Just adding a little humor to a tense day for some.

[Agua]

the globals are getting a pretty decent little consensus here...still plenty of time though for it all to change

And it will, several times. We're still talking 3 days out.

[drezee]

AN AUTOMATED PLATFORM AT SAND KEY OFF
KEY WEST REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 76 MPH AT 1215 PM...AND KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 69 MPH AT 129 PM. AN
AUTOMATED PLATFORM AT DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK REPORTED A WIND
GUST OF 66 MPH AT 1259 PM.

[cycloneye]

TPNT KGWC 261755
A. HURRICANE KATRINA (TWELVE)
B. 26/1731Z (73)
C. 24.9N/5
D. 82.6W/6
E. THREE/GOES12
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS -26/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

15A/ PBO TGHTLY CRVD BND/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.50 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YEILDING A DT OF 4.5. FINAL T BASED ON
DT. PT AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T5.6 (UNIFORM CDO)

SCHULTZ/ARCHULETTA


Air Force T numbers.

[timNms]

Actually all 4 of the NGP, GFS, GFDL, and UKMET are into LA or MS.

The GUNA consensus model (which typically is mirrored by the NHC forecast track) is now into the Western Mississippi coast.

not sounding good for MS right now. If they continue to point in this direction in future runs, then it's time to worry.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 261812
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 34 KNHC
1802 2418N 08402W 03048 0107 339 041 110 076 041 03202 0000000000
1802. 2416N 08402W 03047 0106 338 041 108 078 041 03201 0000000000
1803 2414N 08402W 03047 0107 333 040 106 090 041 03202 0000000000
1803. 2412N 08402W 03050 0108 334 041 112 078 043 03206 0000000000
1804 2410N 08402W 03047 0110 331 040 110 076 041 03204 0000000000
1804. 2408N 08402W 03048 0111 327 037 112 068 038 03207 0000000000
1805 2406N 08402W 03046 0112 324 036 108 074 036 03206 0000000000
1805. 2404N 08402W 03050 0112 324 037 112 064 037 03210 0000000000
1806 2402N 08402W 03047 0112 323 038 110 062 039 03207 0000000000
1806. 2400N 08402W 03047 0112 321 036 112 064 037 03206 0000000000
1807 2358N 08402W 03049 0112 320 033 118 056 034 03208 0000000000
1807. 2356N 08402W 03050 0112 321 035 114 060 036 03210 0000000000
1808 2354N 08402W 03047 0112 321 036 114 068 036 03207 0000000000
1808. 2352N 08402W 03058 0111 319 041 096 096 048 03216 0000000100
1809 2350N 08402W 03038 0106 322 040 072 072 041 03192 0000000100
1809. 2348N 08402W 03046 0109 313 033 078 078 035 03202 0000000100
1810 2346N 08402W 03051 0110 309 038 094 094 038 03208 0000000000
1810. 2344N 08402W 03049 0112 307 036 094 094 037 03209 0000000000
1811 2342N 08403W 03047 0113 312 036 096 096 036 03207 0000000000
1811. 2340N 08403W 03047 0113 318 036 100 094 038 03208 0000000000

[skysummit]

Actually all 4 of the NGP, GFS, GFDL, and UKMET are into LA or MS.

The GUNA consensus model (which typically is mirrored by the NHC forecast track) is now into the Western Mississippi coast.

not sounding good for MS right now. If they continue to point in this direction in future runs, then it's time to worry.

Yea....I'm not getting worried yet here, but if I was on the Miss coast, I would be.

[WindRunner]

Not going to find much out there, but it does show a somewhat larger windfield with that 48, if I am right.