be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not
be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any
professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information
please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Gulf of Mexico Tropical Summary - GUTS IN on August 26, 2005
I'm going to provide a lengthy summary today, as we will have a major
hurricane threatening the Northern Gulf Coast in 3-4 days.
PLEASE LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL OFFICIALS, THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FOR ACTIONS YOU SHOULD TAKE TO PREPARE FOR HURRICANE
KATRINA AND PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY
SYNOPTICS FOR KATRINA
<img src="http://www.diamondheadweather.com/gutc20050826.jpg">
First, the overall synpotics. The ridge over the ARK/LA/MS isn't going
anywhere fast. This ridge has dominated the northern Gulf of Mexico
over the last few days, and has not moved much at all.
A trough stretching fron Canada into Minnesota, extending into Kansas
is forecast by models to dig south. I do not see any evidence of this.
There is a relatively strong zonal flow from west to east across the
northern US. I believe that the trough will bypass or have very little
influence on the path of Katrina. The ridge has been underestimated
by many to some degree, including me. I did not expect Katrina to move
WSW to SSW as much as she did last night. The right turn the models
had forecast back into the peninsula does not appear to be a viable solution at all.
Here is the loop of this image so you can see the trends:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
FORECAST PATH FOR KATRINA
<img src="http://www.diamondheadweather.com/guts20050826.jpg">
Katrina should continue moving west today and continue to get better
organized. Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico are ideal for development.
I expect that the path for Katrina will be similar to Ivan. Specifically,
Katrina should approach the mouth of the Mississippi, then begin an
eastward component. Katrina will approach the Northern Gulf Coast
as a MAJOR HURRICANE, likely a category 3, perhaps a category 4.
There is a decent chance for Katrina to become a category 5 hurricane.
The green area is my high probability area for the path of Katrina.
Areas from Grand Isle, Louisiana to west of Apalachacola Florida are
at the greatest risk for landfall.
Given the uncertainties of the ridge moving off to the west, I've
included an area in yellow that needs to pay careful attention to Katrina
until we get a better idea of the path, based upon the ridge.
Here is the loop of this image so you can view it:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
GULF OF MEXICO SST'S
<img src="http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/averages/05aug/gm_05aug25_0217_mult.png">
It's important to see all of the fuel available for Katrina. As you can see,
the Gulf of Mexico has extremely warm waters, in the upper 80's to
low 90's. This is about as good as it can be for a tropical cyclone.
It's a big buffet of Katrina's favorite food to live on for the next few days.
GULF OF MEXICO 26 DEGREE ISOTHERM
<img src="http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005237god26.png">
I've added the 26 degree isotherm so you can see that the warm waters
are significantly deep along the path of Katrina. This means that upwelling
will not quickly produce cooler SST's - thus a slow moving hurricane
will not "cap out" at any given strength due to a lack of warm water.
I encourage everyone from Port Arthur, Texas to Cedar Key, Florida
to pay close attention to Hurricane Katrina.
Footnote - if indeed Katrina heads my way, I will not be posting
WATS/GUTS/EATS, as I'll be boarding up.
