12z gfs - nola

leonardo · #1 Postby **leonardo** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:09 am

48 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048m.gif

60 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060m.gif

72 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072m.gif

78 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078m.gif

#2 Postby **HollynLA** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:11 am

I'm not surprised by this, but I also do think that the models are going to be all over the place in the next 48 hours. This storm is difficult to forecast.

Anyone else have any thoughts on this?

leonardo · #3 Postby **leonardo** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:14 am

yeah, I wouldn't start putting too much faith into it yet...but, if we see the same thing on the 0z run, it might be time to get concerned.

hopefully this will serve as an eye-opener for those who feel this is a lock for the panhandle

IF this verifies, however, it's the ultimate doomsday scenario for New Orleans. thankfully, it's still 3+ days out

we'll see...

#4 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:15 am

The next steaming hot plate of fresh waffles (stacked with a probable lean to the right) will be served promptly at 18z.

In the meantime, enjoy!

AL Chili Pepper · #5 Postby **AL Chili Pepper** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:16 am

I'm sure nobody in the FL Panhandle would mind that. That being said... :eek:

.

frankthetank · #6 Postby **frankthetank** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:17 am

Oil just jumped to its highest point today...wonder if someone is watching the model runs????

321energy.com

JenBayles · #7 Postby **JenBayles** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:18 am

BayouVenteux wrote:The next steaming hot plate of fresh waffles (stacked with a probable lean to the right) will be served promptly at 18z.

In the meantime, enjoy!

#8 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:18 am

I won't worry about that yet. I'm going to wait for the next day or so before I begin to get nervous.

#9 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:20 am

I know the forecast models will flip flop again.

hicksta · #10 Postby **hicksta** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:22 am

Yea, but thats a big shift from Pensacola to New orleans. Might just miss that trof

LSU_Weatherguy · #11 Postby **LSU_Weatherguy** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:23 am

If She came into NO at the angle she would fill Lake Pont. with water that would over flow into NO and flood the city

#12 Postby **sweetpea** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:25 am

Throwing out an early apology to all of you in NO if she heads that way. I just bought 4 airline tickets last night to come visit your beautiful city for the 1st time for new years eve. :roll:

Seriously though everyone needs to watch this storm and stay safe. Debbie

#13 Postby **gboudx** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:26 am

If you show that model to Aaron Broussard, Jeff Parish will evacuate ASAP.

But seriously, the only scenario I bet all of us would like to see is this hurricane grow to Cat 5, meander in the central Gulf and then fizzle to a lone shower as it nears the coast. However, if this model is picking up on something of substance, and not just a bad run, then SELA could be in trouble.

WindRunner · #14 Postby **WindRunner** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:27 am

LSU_Weatherguy wrote:If She came into NO at the angle she would fill Lake Pont. with water that would over flow into NO and flood the city

And that's why they call it the "doomsday scenario."

#15 Postby **mvtrucking** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:29 am

Can you imagine a Cat 4 or 5 coming into NOLA at that angle? Very scary.

#16 Postby **EDR1222** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:49 am

Interesting, but I agree that the models will probably continue to shift around a bit more, especially since Katrina is still moving with a bit of a southerly component.

LSU_Weatherguy · #17 Postby **LSU_Weatherguy** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:51 am

WindRunner wrote:
LSU_Weatherguy wrote:If She came into NO at the angle she would fill Lake Pont. with water that would over flow into NO and flood the city

And that's why they call it the "doomsday scenario."

I have studied what it would take for NO to go under for quite sometime now and that model shows exacly what it would take. IMO NO needs to begin evacs now as even with a three day warning i do not think everyone could get out in time

Swimdude · #18 Postby **Swimdude** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:53 am

WindRunner wrote:
LSU_Weatherguy wrote:If She came into NO at the angle she would fill Lake Pont. with water that would over flow into NO and flood the city

And that's why they call it the "doomsday scenario."

Thankfully, with a turn to the NE highly likely, the chance of this occuring with Katrina is slim to nothing. Lake Pontchartrain is safe this time, at least from the Southeast.

#19 Postby **dhweather** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:53 am

mvtrucking wrote:Can you imagine a Cat 4 or 5 coming into NOLA at that angle? Very scary.

That would redefine catastrophic.

NoceoTotus · #20 Postby **NoceoTotus** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:41 pm

LSU_Weatherguy wrote:I have studied what it would take for NO to go under for quite sometime now and that model shows exacly what it would take. IMO NO needs to begin evacs now as even with a three day warning i do not think everyone could get out in time

I heard it from a "little birdie" at a conference once that under the best conditions it would take 10 days to clear out New Orleans and the suburbs given the population demographics. Believe me, the comments about whether it would even be worth it to pump the water out of the city after a major storm would even be worth it were stated as well. It was not a pretty scene when this discussion came up... :eek:

12z gfs - nola

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