Could The Trough Miss Katrina?
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gatorcane
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Could The Trough Miss Katrina?
Katrina still appears to be wobbling SW....if she gets far enough that trough may bypass her to the north...thoughts welcome.
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deltadog03
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deltadog03
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ColdWaterConch
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gatorcane
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?boca_Chris. Not to sound stupid BUT does that mean if the trough misses her she can go NE
Potential scenario:
Trough bypasses her to the North
Weak steering currents are leftover in the central GOM...
she gets strong enough to build an anticyclone over herself and her
own environment..
Where she goes from there? I have no idea...could be anywhere in the GOM..
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deltadog03 wrote:no if the trof missed her it would continue west..until the ridge broke down and the flow moved
Correct me if I'm wrong, Katrina is not forebcast to be picked up by any through, but move north into a weakness in the ridge left from the high pressure that moves west and the shortwave trough. Right?
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gatorcane
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Correct me if I'm wrong, Katrina is not forebcast to be picked up by any through, but move north into a weakness in the ridge left from the high pressure that moves west and the shortwave trough. Right?
It's a cominbation of the approaching trough and the ridge being pushed E...allowing for the weakness....
BUT if the ridge and inverted trough over the Caribbean moves her far enough S...the trough will bypass her and she won't be able to move intot he weakness...then a ridge will build back in after the trough pushing her more W.
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deltadog03
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dwg71 wrote:deltadog03 wrote:no if the trof missed her it would continue west..until the ridge broke down and the flow moved
Correct me if I'm wrong, Katrina is not forebcast to be picked up by any through, but move north into a weakness in the ridge left from the high pressure that moves west and the shortwave trough. Right?
the trof will create the weakness....yeah...its really up in the air right now...seriously
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deltadog03
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WindRunner
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boca_chris wrote:?boca_Chris. Not to sound stupid BUT does that mean if the trough misses her she can go NE
Potential scenario:
Trough bypasses her to the North
Weak steering currents are leftover in the central GOM...
she gets strong enough to build an anticyclone over herself and her
own environment..
Where she goes from there? I have no idea...could be anywhere in the GOM..
And she could sit in the central gulf just long enough to hit 180kts and have a CDO from NO to the Yucatan . . .
(THE ABOVE IS A VERY UNLIKELY SCENARIO FOR KATRINA)
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HouTXmetro
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gboudx wrote:ColdWaterConch wrote:Some other posters on the other board seem to be leaning this way....thinking Western Gulf - Mex hit.....
Are any of those posters professional mets?
NO, lol.......
Me included, I just questioned the possibility of that occuring. With Katrina intensifying and Katrin well south of the NHC's projection it begs to ask the question.
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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
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ColdWaterConch
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LAwxrgal
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dwg71 wrote:deltadog03 wrote:no if the trof missed her it would continue west..until the ridge broke down and the flow moved
Correct me if I'm wrong, Katrina is not forebcast to be picked up by any through, but move north into a weakness in the ridge left from the high pressure that moves west and the shortwave trough. Right?
Yes that's the forecast, and it's supposed to be a wedge between two high pressure ridges
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Andrew 92/Isidore & Lili 02/Bill 03/Katrina & Rita 05/Gustav & Ike 08/Isaac 12 (flooded my house)/Harvey 17/Barry 19/Cristobal 20/Claudette 21/Ida 21 (In the Eye)/Francine 24
Wake me up when November ends
Wake me up when November ends
Hope you are well, Chris - hopefully one of the professional meteorologists will post here (I was a meteorological technican, and when making a comparison with a Professional Meteorologist, is like comparing a Doctor to a Nurse), but, Katrina is still moving slowly west (or just slightly south of west) at least for the time being.
Still, the OCM's felt earlier today that the trough is forecast to be sharp enough to pick up the system - I don't really know for certain, but, it does seem that this outcome is more likely than a continued west motion.
Frank
Still, the OCM's felt earlier today that the trough is forecast to be sharp enough to pick up the system - I don't really know for certain, but, it does seem that this outcome is more likely than a continued west motion.
Frank
Last edited by Frank2 on Fri Aug 26, 2005 11:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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