Hurricane Katrina

[dcuevas]

WOW... just learning some of this stuff. Thanks to ALL! Could this mean bad weather for the West Coast of Florida? Is it possible with rapid intensification she will not be pulled to the West with the Trough?

[StormsAhead]

If 971 and 83 is correct wouldn't this already be a CAT 2?

Probably 95 MPH, but the pressure argues for as much as 100-105.

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like the NW turn has occured.

[cjrciadt]

If 971 and 83 is correct wouldn't this already be a CAT 2?

Just like Charley it's intesity is growing like a bat out of hell, CAT2 by 1pm!!!!???

[Thunder44]

83kts is 95mph, just short of Cat 2 winds, but it could be stronger.

[cycloneye]

Is taking longer than normal for discussion to come out and I think that means that Stewart is writing a very long one.

[curtinnc]

971, if this holds, and wind follows, no way we won't have a Cat by midafternoon... and IMHO, maybe Cat 3 by 11pm if she maintains or makes it to 960's...

[Thunder44]

If 971 and 83 is correct wouldn't this already be a CAT 2?

90-95 MPH, yes.

Cat 2 winds are 96mph to 110mph.

[beenthru6]

TWC just reported the pressure down to 971. Intensifiying fast.

[Brent]

HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT INDICATES KATRINA'S
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS MUCH LOWER...NOW AT 971 MB. MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE 81 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...WHICH
SUPPORTS AT LEAST 70 KT SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER...THE AIRCRAFT HAS
NOT SAMPLED THE WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WHERE NOAA/KEY WEST
DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY DATA INDICATES WINDS AS HIGH AS 91 KT AT
AROUND 3000 FT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF
ABOUT 75 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT MAY TURN OUT TO BE A
LITTLE LOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/6. RADAR DATA INDICATES KATRINA
HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH OF DUE WEST DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TRACK SHOULD FLATTEN
OUT IN A MORE WESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE
INFLUENCE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DECREASES.
THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
KATRINA IS FORECAST BY THE ALL GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TIMING OF THE
EROSION OF THE RIDGE AND AN INDUCED NORTHWARD MOTION OF KATRINA IS
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A
LARGE SPREAD AFTER 48 HOURS. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS HAVE MADE A
LARGE JUMP TO THE WEST OVER LOUISIANA...WHEREAS THE MAJORITY OF THE
NHC MODELS TAKE KATRINA INLAND OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS IN THE RIGHT PORTION OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

STRENGTHENING TO A MAJOR HURRICANE IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...A RECENT
DROPSONDE REPORT RECEIVED FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATES MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NOW UP TO 80 KT. SO...A SPECIAL
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO UPDATE THE CURRENT AND FORECAST
INTENSITIES.

FORECASTER STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 25.1N 82.2W 70 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 25.2N 83.1W 75 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 25.5N 84.3W 80 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 26.2N 85.2W 85 KT
48HR VT 28/1200Z 27.1N 85.9W 90 KT
72HR VT 29/1200Z 29.5N 86.3W 100 KT
96HR VT 30/1200Z 34.5N 83.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 31/1200Z 40.5N 77.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

[JTD]

OMG

My jaw dropped when I saw 971 mb!!!

[Rainband]

Looks like the NW turn has occured.

Huh

[Tallygrl]

TWC just reported the pressure down to 971. Intensifiying fast.

What does this faster then expected intensification mean for the track??

[Dave C]

It will take time for the winds to catch-up to pressure. Now that eyewall is closing this could really take off, we need that dry air to help us out! I've been watching long-range doppler from Tampa and it shows northern eyewall better than Key West radar.

[StormsAhead]

Observation #: 8
Time: 15:01Z
Position: 24.1N 81.2W
Flight altitude: 3050 meters
Flight-level wind: SSW (200°) 38 knots
Temperature/Dew Point: 9C/9C
Weather: Rain
700mb Height: 3131 meters
Surface Wind: SSW (200°) 40 knots

URNT11 KNHC 261504
97779 15014 60241 81200 30500 20038 09098 /3131
42040
RMK AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 08

[Thunder44]

Last paragraph says winds are stronger and Special Advisory will be issued.

[mvtrucking]

Looks like the NW turn has occured.

Where are you getting the NW turn? According to NHC a few minutes ago(11 am advisory) it is still west:


AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES
NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
NAPLES FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[Dave C]

It will take time for the winds to catch-up to pressure. Now that eyewall is closing this could really take off, we need that dry air to help us out! I've been watching long-range doppler from Tampa and it shows northern eyewall better than Key West radar.

[Brent]

Special advisory coming soon to reflect 80 kt surface winds and up the intensity forecast.

[StormsAhead]

Also, that eyewall dropsonde measured 95 knots at 925mb and 93 knots at 850mb.