Hurricane Katrina

[Air Force Met]

Wow, check this out!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42014

Buoy 42014 must be really near the eye, its pressure is down to 28.97, which is 981 millibars! Thats lower than the last recon fix I think...

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.97 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.45 in ( Falling Rapidly )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.4 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 86.7 °F

That would make sense given that there are 100kt+ velocities at 3000'...which translates to about 80 kts at the sfc.

[Stormcenter]

Sounds reasonable AFM.. Intensity is going to be harder to impossible to predict. If it stayed a cat 1 it wouldn't surprise me, if it went to a 4 it wouldnt surprise me.

Agreed. Given there are 102 and 103 knot velocities showing up already and a good eyewall structure...along with some good heat content and high SST's...I think Cat 4 isn't out of the question. IT might have been had it stayed over Florida a while longer and not moved over the everglades. I'm also a little concerned about the track because it should have some really good outflow jets enhancing the outflow as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast....and it should be moving fast enough to not weaken before it gets close to the coast....

I've got a bad feeling.

AFM when you say "I've got a bad feeling", I get a worse feeling for those in the path.

This is not going to end well, I'm afraid. The SSTs are way too warm in the GOM and honestly speaking, is there anything to stop this strom from intensifying??????

Unfortunately I don't think so.

[Thunder44]

I thought 81 kts supports around 80-85 mph

I may be wrong but isn't it like a 85% - 90% translation figure

It depends on high they are flying really. If they are at 850mb again, which I suspect, but I'm not sure, it's 80% reduction. If they are at 700mb it's 90% reduction. They just raised the winds though on 11am advisory to 80mph.

They are flying at 700mb.

Are you looking at the next to last column to the right? Because I can't tell. So then 83kts would be about 75kts at the surface.

[Thunder44]

URNT12 KNHC 261451
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/14:34:20Z
B. 25 deg 03 min N
082 deg 13 min W
C. 700 mb 2875 m
D. 45 kt
E. 318 deg 031 nm
F. 014 deg 081 kt
G. 306 deg 013 nm
H. 971 mb
I. 10 C/ 3046 m
J. 17 C/ 2871 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. OPEN N
M. C9
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 81 KT NW QUAD 14:30:50 Z

Note: I suspect the pressue may be an error. And is really meant to say 981mb.

[drezee]

Storm KATRINA: Observed By AF #304
Storm #12 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 81KT (93.2mph 150.0km/h) In NW Quadrant At 14:30:50 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 72.9KT (83.8mph 135.0km/h) *
Date/Time of Recon Report: Friday, August 26, 2005 10:34:00 AM (Fri, 26 Aug 2005 14:34:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 25° 03' N 082° 13' W (25.1°N 82.2°W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2875m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 45 KT (51.75MPH 83.3km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 031nm (35.65miles) From Center At Bearing 318°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 081KT (93.15mph 150.0km/h) From 014°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 013nm (15.0 miles) From Center At Bearing 306°
Minimum pressure: 971 mb (28.67in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: OPEN N
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 9 nm (10.4 mi 16.7km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 2nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

[StormsAhead]

Are you looking at the next to last column to the right? Because I can't tell. So then 83kts would be about 75kts at the surface.

The heights (second to last column) are all around 3000 meters, which are 700mb heights.

[deltadog03]

OMG!!!!!

[StormsAhead]

UZNT13 KNHC 261454
XXAA 76157 99250 70821 08152 99980 26408 17583 00676 ///// /////
92514 24021 20095 85254 21022 20593 70919 128// 22082 88999 77999
31313 09608 81440
61616 AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 07
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 2506N08204W 1444 MBL WND 19595 AEV 20507 DL
M WND 20591 979744 WL150 18592 083 =
XXBB 76158 99250 70821 08152 00980 26408 11850 21022 22717 14208
33702 138// 44690 080//
21212 00980 17583 11970 19094 22962 19099 33954 19595 44850 20593
55815 22081 66769 21087 77690 22583
31313 09608 81440
61616 AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 07
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 2506N08204W 1444 MBL WND 19595 AEV 20507 DL
M WND 20591 979744 WL150 18592 083 =

980mb in the EYEWALL, so likely 971 in the eye.
Also, 83 knots at the surface!

[johngaltfla]

URNT12 KNHC 261451
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/14:34:20Z
B. 25 deg 03 min N
082 deg 13 min W
C. 700 mb 2875 m
D. 45 kt
E. 318 deg 031 nm
F. 014 deg 081 kt
G. 306 deg 013 nm
H. 971 mb
I. 10 C/ 3046 m
J. 17 C/ 2871 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. OPEN N
M. C9
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 81 KT NW QUAD 14:30:50 Z

Note: I suspect the pressue may be an error. And is really meant to say 981mb.

Just reloaded NHC vortex again. Still 971, no correction. I hope that's not right, because it can and will intensify faster. Thanks again to all who post recon data.....

[cjrciadt]

971mb reported by Recon, rapid mb drops mean major trouble.

[WindRunner]

HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
1500Z FRI AUG 26 2005

...
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
...

...

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...25.1 N... 82.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 981 MB.

...

Interesting, 75 and 80mph at the same time, I guess the plane must have just got that 80mph data out.

[Brent]

OMG!!!

[superfly]

971mb wow

[Brent]

HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
1500Z FRI AUG 26 2005

...
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
...

...

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...25.1 N... 82.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 981 MB.

...

Interesting, 75 and 80mph at the same time, I guess the plane must have just got that 80mph data out.

The Marine advisory has been corrected to say 70 kt.

[StormsAhead]

971 and 83 knots at the surface...good thing they sent the Recon in, after all.

[JtSmarts]

If 971 and 83 is correct wouldn't this already be a CAT 2?

[WindRunner]

No, that's not right, that's not right, that's not right, it can't be, not right, not right . . .

[AussieMark]

isn't a 971 mb pressure more characteristic of a category 2?

[sweetpea]

WOW, this is scary. I hope people are paying attention. Thanks you guys for the great jobs you do. Debbie

[johngaltfla]

971mb reported by Recon, rapid mb drops mean major trouble.

Wow. If it drops 10 mb every 6-12 hours, we're looking at big trouble at the second landfall.