Hurricane Katrina

[Brent]

[superfly]

She has been moving due south per the Key West radar.

Not sure what you are seeing...but it is most certainly not moving due south. I have a two hour motion westward...generally...


What is also interesting is I am seeing 102 kts at about 3000-4000' from the doppler.

It's definitely moving westward now. When I woke up this morning, the 6 frame radar loop I was looking at showed a due south movement which was obviously either a jog or I hadn't waken up fully yet .

[Air Force Met]

What would be your best bet to where she goes?

I think anywhere b/w Pensacola and Appalacacola...maybe near Panama City. I think with the current slow movement...it will not make it as far west. If it was moving at 10-15 kts right now...we would be looking at landfall much further west.

[johngaltfla]

I just want the "Cone of Death" to move away from our area. I have the feeling that the recon will show a strengthening storm.....

[dwg71]

Sounds reasonable AFM.. Intensity is going to be harder to impossible to predict. If it stayed a cat 1 it wouldn't surprise me, if it went to a 4 it wouldnt surprise me.

[AussieMark]

I thought 81 kts supports around 80-85 mph

I may be wrong but isn't it like a 85% - 90% translation figure

[feederband]

Boy if that pans out the people still living in those area are deffently moving..

[Brent]

[Gorky]

Well, as this is moving West, the North West quad is the right front and so you'd expect the highest winds there, but I wouldn't be surprised to see higher in the NE as there is more convective banding there...

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

...KATRINA GETTING STRONGER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD AWAY FROM
SOUTH FLORIDA...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD
TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES
NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
NAPLES FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
80 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 85 MILES. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A NOAA SHIP ANCHORED IN KEY
WEST HARBOR REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 59 MPH WITH A GUST TO 86
MPH IN HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM A
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA SEA-COOS BUOY IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES
OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER NORTHWESTERN CUBA.
ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...25.1 N... 82.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 981 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Air Force Met]

Sounds reasonable AFM.. Intensity is going to be harder to impossible to predict. If it stayed a cat 1 it wouldn't surprise me, if it went to a 4 it wouldnt surprise me.

Agreed. Given there are 102 and 103 knot velocities showing up already and a good eyewall structure...along with some good heat content and high SST's...I think Cat 4 isn't out of the question. IT might have been had it stayed over Florida a while longer and not moved over the everglades. I'm also a little concerned about the track because it should have some really good outflow jets enhancing the outflow as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast....and it should be moving fast enough to not weaken before it gets close to the coast....

I've got a bad feeling.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 261443
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 13 KNHC
1432 2507N 08222W 03046 5083 003 066 122 122 069 03009 0000000000
1432. 2505N 08221W 03042 5095 357 060 122 122 061 02993 0000000000
1433 2504N 08219W 03047 5109 348 050 134 124 052 02985 0000000000
1433. 2503N 08217W 03050 5121 351 037 128 128 044 02976 0000000000
1434 2503N 08215W 03042 5132 328 020 124 124 023 02956 0000000000
1434. 2503N 08213W 03050 5138 265 002 146 134 012 02959 0000000000
1435 2505N 08212W 03049 5133 144 021 168 110 025 02962 0000000000
1435. 2506N 08211W 03057 5128 153 032 144 132 035 02975 0000000000
1436 2504N 08210W 03042 5129 167 032 142 132 035 02960 0000000000
1436. 2504N 08211W 03043 5130 163 024 164 110 026 02960 0000000000
1437 2505N 08213W 03060 5126 136 018 168 104 020 02980 0000000000
1437. 2507N 08212W 03048 5127 146 020 148 126 023 02968 0000000000
1438 2506N 08210W 03044 5129 169 027 122 122 031 02961 0000000000
1438. 2505N 08209W 03044 5132 171 037 134 134 038 02959 0000000000
1439 2504N 08208W 03045 5129 181 038 134 128 038 02962 0000000000
1439. 2502N 08207W 03054 5119 186 038 126 126 039 02982 0000000000
1440 2501N 08207W 03042 5106 199 042 102 102 044 02983 0000000100
1440. 2500N 08206W 03057 5090 215 052 098 098 063 03015 0000000100
1441 2458N 08205W 03091 5060 225 079 082 082 083 03077 0000000100
1441. 2457N 08204W 03076 5041 222 068 078 078 071 03081 0000000100

83 knots

[storms in NC]

Could it not go west as mush as the say and just go North?

[Dmetal81]

Wow, check this out!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42014

Buoy 42014 must be really near the eye, its pressure is down to 28.97, which is 981 millibars! Thats lower than the last recon fix I think...

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.97 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.45 in ( Falling Rapidly )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.4 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 86.7 °F

[deltadog03]

i have a really bad feeling about this as well....still moving WSW...also, the landfall track has been shifted west as well

[Thunder44]

I thought 81 kts supports around 80-85 mph

I may be wrong but isn't it like a 85% - 90% translation figure

It depends on high they are flying really. If they are at 850mb again, which I suspect, but I'm not sure, it's 80% reduction. If they are at 700mb it's 90% reduction. They just raised the winds though on 11am advisory to 80mph.

[JTD]

Yay Stacey Stewart is on duty! Still haven't quite got over the shock of that err...interesting discussion from Avila at 11 p.m. last night.

[johngaltfla]

Sounds reasonable AFM.. Intensity is going to be harder to impossible to predict. If it stayed a cat 1 it wouldn't surprise me, if it went to a 4 it wouldnt surprise me.

Agreed. Given there are 102 and 103 knot velocities showing up already and a good eyewall structure...along with some good heat content and high SST's...I think Cat 4 isn't out of the question. IT might have been had it stayed over Florida a while longer and not moved over the everglades. I'm also a little concerned about the track because it should have some really good outflow jets enhancing the outflow as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast....and it should be moving fast enough to not weaken before it gets close to the coast....

I've got a bad feeling.

AFM when you say "I've got a bad feeling", I get a worse feeling for those in the path.

This is not going to end well, I'm afraid. The SSTs are way too warm in the GOM and honestly speaking, is there anything to stop this strom from intensifying??????

[StormsAhead]

I thought 81 kts supports around 80-85 mph

I may be wrong but isn't it like a 85% - 90% translation figure

It depends on high they are flying really. If they are at 850mb again, which I suspect, but I'm not sure, it's 80% reduction. If they are at 700mb it's 90% reduction. They just raised the winds though on 11am advisory to 80mph.

They are flying at 700mb.

[Dmetal81]

Last NHC discussion said that if that conditions would only continue to be come more conducive to intensification. Im afraid right now there is nothing to hinder her.