Hurricane Katrina

[Stormtrack03]

I believe inland GA/SC/NC still possible threat for the remnants of this storm, local mets this morning said here in charleston based on track we could get cat 1 effects, watching closely here.

[Derecho]

6Z GFDN (GFDL using the NOGAPS, not the GFS, as the background field) is now the westernmost model with a landfall on the central Louisiana coast.

(To see it you pretty much need Stormtrakker and download the ATCF data with it.)

[drezee]

839
WTNT52 KNHC 261352
TCEAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

AT 10 AM EDT...1400Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED
BY NOAA DOPPLER RADARS TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE
82.1 WEST. THIS POSITION IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ABOUT
50 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 70 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

DURING THE PAST HOUR...A WIND GUST TO 74 MPH WAS REPORTED BY A NOAA
SHIP ANCHORED IN KEY WEST HARBOR.

FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

WTNT52 KNHC 261352
TCEAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

AT 10 AM EDT...1400Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED
BY NOAA DOPPLER RADARS TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE
82.1 WEST. THIS POSITION IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ABOUT
50 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 70 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

DURING THE PAST HOUR...A WIND GUST TO 74 MPH WAS REPORTED BY A NOAA
SHIP ANCHORED IN KEY WEST HARBOR.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Javlin]

Ah, the famous mystery NOGAPS....

Go here

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/index.jsp


And click on the small "public charts (no login required)" link that is below the boxes for the username and password, which you don't need.

I think what happens is people always panic and think they're accidentally going to some top secret site and Navy SEALS will suddenly burst through their doors, guns blazing.

THKS Derecho looks very interesting right over Steve's house in Meterie hes been waiting for one of these for along time.

[StormsAhead]

Observation #: 4
Time: 14:01Z
Position: 26.5N 83.7W
Flight altitude: 3050 meters
Flight-level wind: NE (40°) 33 knots
Temperature/Dew Point: 12C/07C
Weather: Broken Clouds
700mb Height: 3159 meters
Surface Wind: NNE (30°) 35 knots

URNT11 KNHC 261407
97779 14014 60265 83700 30500 04033 12072 /3159
40335
RMK AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 04

[Derecho]

Thing about the NOGAPS on the mywxmap site is that it comes out through 72 hours REALLY early....12Z Nogaps is already out to 72 hours...

Seems like it may be a HAIR east of 6Z, is almost to New Orleans at the end.

[clfenwi]

Time: 1401Z
Position 26.5 North // 83.7 West
Flight level: 3050 meters
FL winds: 33 knots // 040
Temp/Dewpoint (C) 12/07
Weather: Broken Clouds
700 millibar height: 3159 meters
Surface winds: 35 knots // 030

URNT11 KNHC 261407
97779 14014 60265 83700 30500 04033 12072 /3159
40335
RMK AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 04


Note for StormsAhead... for the 700 millibar height, a 2 or a 3 is assumed to be leading it... 1590 meters is an 850 millibar height.

[drezee]

TS force surface winds 100 miles NW of center...wind field is definitely expanding...

[StormsAhead]

Note for StormsAhead... for the 700 millibar height, a 2 or a 3 is assumed to be leading it... 1590 meters is an 850 millibar height.

Sorry...typo.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 261402
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 09 KNHC
1352 2657N 08410W 05053 0309 041 029 011 071 029 05446 0000000000
1352. 2655N 08408W 04766 0283 045 030 008 049 031 05132 0000000000
1353 2654N 08406W 04467 0254 045 030 026 013 030 04803 0000000000
1353. 2652N 08404W 04154 0240 046 030 050 006 031 04454 0000000000
1354 2650N 08403W 03849 0225 049 032 070 006 033 04122 0000000000
1354. 2649N 08401W 03587 0204 053 034 088 022 035 03839 0000000000
1355 2647N 08359W 03348 0183 050 034 100 040 034 03579 0000000100
1355. 2646N 08358W 03146 0166 049 034 112 112 034 03359 0000000100
1356 2645N 08356W 03053 0156 051 034 118 118 034 03256 0000000100
1356. 2644N 08355W 03050 0153 051 034 114 114 035 03250 0000000100
1357 2642N 08353W 03048 0152 047 034 114 114 034 03246 0000000100
1357. 2641N 08352W 03048 0151 045 035 112 082 035 03246 0000000000
1358 2640N 08350W 03049 0151 045 035 112 080 035 03247 0000000000
1358. 2639N 08349W 03047 0151 049 036 116 074 037 03244 0000000000
1359 2637N 08348W 03049 0150 047 035 116 076 035 03246 0000000000
1359. 2636N 08346W 03048 0149 043 036 118 066 037 03245 0000000000
1400 2635N 08345W 03048 0149 045 036 120 070 036 03243 0000000000
1400. 2634N 08343W 03048 0148 045 036 116 072 036 03243 0000000000
1401 2632N 08342W 03049 0148 044 034 118 072 034 03243 0000000000
1401. 2631N 08340W 03048 0148 044 033 116 072 034 03243 0000000000

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 261412
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 10 KNHC
1402 2630N 08339W 03047 0148 043 032 120 076 033 03242 0000000000
1402. 2629N 08338W 03049 0146 045 036 116 082 036 03241 0000000000
1403 2627N 08336W 03048 0146 043 036 118 078 037 03241 0000000000
1403. 2626N 08335W 03048 0145 044 036 116 084 037 03240 0000000000
1404 2625N 08333W 03048 0143 043 037 120 084 038 03238 0000000000
1404. 2624N 08332W 03047 0142 048 039 116 058 040 03235 0000000000
1405 2622N 08331W 03049 0140 053 039 108 058 039 03236 0000000000
1405. 2621N 08329W 03050 0139 052 038 106 060 040 03236 0000000000
1406 2620N 08328W 03048 0138 052 040 110 058 041 03233 0000000000
1406. 2619N 08327W 03048 0137 051 040 110 060 041 03232 0000000000
1407 2618N 08325W 03048 0137 050 039 110 064 041 03232 0000000000
1407. 2616N 08324W 03048 0135 052 038 112 058 038 03230 0000000000
1408 2615N 08322W 03049 0134 051 039 116 054 039 03230 0000000000
1408. 2614N 08321W 03047 0133 050 039 118 052 039 03226 0000000000
1409 2613N 08320W 03049 0132 049 039 120 052 039 03227 0000000000
1409. 2612N 08318W 03047 0131 050 039 120 058 040 03225 0000000000
1410 2610N 08317W 03049 0131 050 039 120 062 040 03226 0000000000
1410. 2609N 08315W 03047 0129 052 038 122 066 039 03224 0000000000
1411 2608N 08314W 03048 0129 056 043 118 070 044 03224 0000000000
1411. 2607N 08313W 03048 0126 054 046 116 072 046 03221 0000000000

46 knots already...

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 261422
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 11 KNHC
1412 2605N 08311W 03049 0125 052 045 118 070 046 03221 0000000000
1412. 2604N 08310W 03047 0124 053 043 120 068 045 03218 0000000000
1413 2603N 08309W 03048 0122 050 040 120 072 040 03217 0000000000
1413. 2602N 08307W 03048 0120 050 040 118 072 040 03215 0000000000
1414 2601N 08306W 03048 0120 047 040 120 070 040 03214 0000000000
1414. 2559N 08305W 03048 0118 047 036 118 070 038 03213 0000000000
1415 2558N 08303W 03048 0117 045 035 118 068 036 03211 0000000000
1415. 2557N 08302W 03049 0116 042 034 116 066 035 03213 0000000000
1416 2555N 08300W 03046 0113 038 035 118 064 036 03206 0000000000
1416. 2554N 08259W 03049 0113 036 034 120 064 035 03209 0000000000
1417 2553N 08258W 03047 0112 040 037 120 064 037 03206 0000000000
1417. 2551N 08257W 03048 0111 045 037 118 076 038 03206 0000000000
1418 2550N 08255W 03049 0109 046 037 118 080 037 03204 0000000000
1418. 2548N 08254W 03047 0107 045 037 120 078 037 03200 0000000000
1419 2547N 08253W 03049 0105 051 037 124 080 038 03201 0000000000
1419. 2546N 08252W 03047 0103 052 038 124 082 038 03196 0000000000
1420 2544N 08250W 03048 0101 050 037 124 084 037 03196 0000000000
1420. 2543N 08249W 03048 0098 049 037 122 090 037 03193 0000000000
1421 2541N 08248W 03048 0097 049 037 126 080 038 03192 0000000000
1421. 2540N 08247W 03048 0095 055 039 124 082 040 03190 0000000000

[drezee]

6z NAM is weird...

[Air Force Met]

She has been moving due south per the Key West radar.

Not sure what you are seeing...but it is most certainly not moving due south. I have a two hour motion westward...generally...


What is also interesting is I am seeing 102 kts at about 3000-4000' from the doppler.

[storms in NC]

She has been moving due south per the Key West radar.

Not sure what you are seeing...but it is most certainly not moving due south. I have a two hour motion westward...generally...


What is also interesting is I am seeing 102 kts at about 3000-4000' from the doppler.

What would be your best bet to where she goes?

[LAwxrgal]

6z NAM is weird...

Isn't NAM not good as a tropical model? That being said, if the trough doesn't pick this thing up it could very well be sitting and spinning down in the GOM.

That being said, though, I trust the NHC.

[StormsAhead]

XXX50 KNHC 261432
AF304 1012A KATRINA HDOB 12 KNHC
1422 2539N 08246W 03048 0092 057 039 120 086 039 03187 0000000000
1422. 2537N 08244W 03047 0089 059 041 120 088 042 03183 0000000000
1423 2536N 08243W 03048 0087 059 043 122 082 044 03182 0000000000
1423. 2534N 08242W 03050 0084 055 044 124 078 044 03181 0000000000
1424 2533N 08241W 03046 0081 058 042 128 074 043 03174 0000000000
1424. 2531N 08240W 03049 0077 054 046 120 084 047 03173 0000000000
1425 2530N 08239W 03048 0073 054 048 114 088 049 03167 0000000000
1425. 2528N 08238W 03047 0067 051 048 110 100 050 03161 0000000000
1426 2527N 08237W 03050 0062 050 050 104 104 051 03159 0000000000
1426. 2525N 08236W 03048 0056 047 051 108 094 053 03151 0000000000
1427 2524N 08235W 03049 0050 042 055 110 092 055 03145 0000000000
1427. 2522N 08233W 03048 0045 040 060 108 094 062 03140 0000000000
1428 2521N 08232W 03048 0038 038 063 104 100 063 03133 0000000000
1428. 2519N 08231W 03047 0030 037 065 102 102 067 03124 0000000000
1429 2518N 08230W 03051 0021 029 067 092 092 068 03118 0000000000
1429. 2516N 08229W 03046 0007 024 069 094 094 070 03100 0000000000
1430 2514N 08227W 03049 5008 022 073 098 098 074 03088 0000000000
1430. 2512N 08226W 03046 5024 023 079 092 092 080 03069 0000000000
1431 2511N 08225W 03055 5046 014 080 088 088 081 03056 0000000100
1431. 2509N 08223W 03048 5066 006 078 108 108 080 03029 0000000100

81 knots at FL...wow

[Brent]

HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
1500Z FRI AUG 26 2005

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD
TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 82.2W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 40SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 82.2W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 81.9W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.2N 83.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.5N 84.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 35SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 26.2N 85.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.1N 85.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.5N 86.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 34.5N 83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 40.5N 77.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 82.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

FORECASTER STEWART

[Thunder44]

81kts supports about 75mph at the surface. And this is just in the NW Quad.