Channel 8 (NBC) in Tampa's VIPIR--what the???

[gatorcane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Tampa Bay should be prepared for a sharp turn to the N or NE which could happen given how Katrina is now meandering around. That trough could easily pick her up....

[melhow]

Derecho posted in another thread:

6Z NOGAPS now has a landfall W of New Orleans, and 6Z GFS has shifted west to just east of Pensacola

ok

[scogor]

Don't worry, everyone...I've been a member of this board for far too long to panic over any particular model or models...but VIPIR's peformance in the past and Channel 8's reliance on it in their advertisements does create a bit of uncertainty--even with its horrible performance earlier in Katrina's history (after all, VIPIR had it going up the east coast of FL yesterday!!)...and with Katrina now moving "erratically" to the west...you get the picture...

[LAwxrgal]

Derecho posted in another thread:

6Z NOGAPS now has a landfall W of New Orleans, and 6Z GFS has shifted west to just east of Pensacola

ok

Isn't NOGAPS a model with a western bias anyway?

[drezee]

This isn't a mobile home either...

[Steve]

Krystal Wicker on Fox 8 New Orleans credited last night's performance but said she didn't buy this morning's projections.

Derecho,

What it does is basically moves systems through 3-D plotted windfields. It's kind of cool output since it's in 3D. It's good with short term forecasting and future extrapolated thunderstoom movement and has done okay with a couple of storms in the Gulf this year (Cindy, Arlene, Bret) but not so good with others. It appears to have some value in short term depictions of vort maxes at various heights but doesn't really handle long term solutions with any consistency.

Steve

[melhow]

Krystal Wicker on Fox 8 New Orleans credited last night's performance but said she didn't buy this morning's projections.

Derecho,

What it does is basically moves systems through 3-D plotted windfields. It's kind of cool output since it's in 3D. It's good with short term forecasting and future extrapolated thunderstoom movement and has done okay with a couple of storms in the Gulf this year (Cindy, Arlene, Bret) but not so good with others. It appears to have some value in short term depictions of vort maxes at various heights but doesn't really handle long term solutions with any consistency.

Steve

Wouldn't a 24 hour hour prediction be considered short-term? That's when it has this storm affecting the west coast...

[Derecho]

I think in many cases VIPIR is being used to display plain old MM5 data in a fancy package.

[jasons2k]

From the Channel 8 site regarding VIPIR:

VIPIR
Advanced Weather Technology From The Storm Team
Storm Team 8 has state-of-the-art technology to bring the most accurate and dependable weather forecasting to the Tampa Bay area. Storm Team 8 VIPIR has set the standard in storm tracking accuracy by predicting Hurricane Charley's easterly turn last season.

Built on the backbone of the National Weather Service's NEXRAD II DOPPLER Radar, it is the same weather radar used to issue life-saving warnings. The advantage of Storm Team 8 VIPIR is its accuracy and power - more than 2 million-watts of Doppler radar energy.

Storm Team 8 VIPIR has two power modes: Forecast Mode and Threat Mode. Storm Team 8 will use Forecast Mode to track weather systems instantaneously, minute-by-minute, as the most dangerous storm cells approach Bay area neighborhoods. That will give families the time they need to seek shelter and stay safe. Storm Team 8 meteorologists will use Threat Mode to punch inside a storm in real-time 3-D.

The VIPIR (Volumetric Imaging and Processing of Integrated Radar) system is a 3-D severe weather tool that uses patented mathematical analysis, continuous live scanning, and unmatched display capability. Multiple radar installations across the Bay area continuously scan the atmosphere. That information feeds into the Storm Team 8 Forecast Center. Meteorologists watch for special alert symbols called ''Shear Markers'' that identify ''Dangerous Twisting of the Winds." This provides Storm Team 8 forecasters with proven technology that delivers the fastest, most powerful, and most accurate severe weather forecasting system in the Bay area

Sounds like a marketing genius wrote that BS to me

[Steve]

>>Wouldn't a 24 hour hour prediction be considered short-term? That's when it has this storm affecting the west coast...

Yeah. But I'm talking shorter term like future casts of 15-20-30 minutes for thunderstorm cell movements maybe up to 4-8 hours for system movements. I'm not defending it btw, just saying I've seen it do okay and not okay.

Steve

[johngaltfla]

Yeah, well, last night at 6, didn't VIPR on channel 8 have Katrina on the more southern path that she ended up taking, and predicted her to be right where she is today? That is the same forecast that had her spinning back east and crossing over Tampa late Saturday. Either VIPR is on drugs, which to this point, it does not seem to be as far as its bang on predictions with last years storms and Katrina thus far, or it is really accurate. Totally different path than the NHC, though...we shall see...

IMHO, the lack of data from recon is affecting all of the models. But that forecast I saw from VIPIR scared the crap out of me too. A storm paralleling the coast is the worst case scenario for us west coasters.

And it looks like the storm has basically stalled for the last 3 hours...

It's gone .2 W and .1 S in the past 3 hours...that's not a stall...just a slow down

I'm going to borrow one of Clark's postings (a professional met) at CFHC. This should be somewhat alarming but heck, with this storm, I'm not sure what it's going to do...

Katrina is beginning to really slow down as the ridge over the south-central US begins to erode and move out. Radar motion over the past hour shows motion of about half of an anticyclonic loop, putting the storm about in the same location it was an hour ago. Water vapor imagery (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html) clearly shows the erosion of the ridge -- no longer is the moisture seen racing around in a clockwise fashion. The trough over the northern Plains continues to flatten it out and in response, the ridge has begun to move towards the SW, pretty much as projected last night. The trough continue to move south and eastward as shortwaves rotate around its periphery over the north-central Plains. As the ridge & trough move over the course of the day, Katrina should move slowly towards the west and gradually northwest in advance of the trough, heading for a second landfall in the Panhandle in the Sunday/Monday time frame.

The storm made it a bit further south than expected, but I think it's about as far south as it is going to go. It did slow down from last night, however -- 7hrs of motion for about 55-60 miles as opposed to 75-80 miles. That's going to continue now, I feel. Where that puts the storm at second landfall only remains to be seen. It's not gonig to be a good one for wherever it ends up.

[johngaltfla]

I find it shameful that TV stations use "TITAN" and "VIPR" systems to show the movement of tropical cyclones, but they NEVER show REAL models on the screen...I can't recall EVER seeing (or hardly even hearing) a TV Met talk about GFS, UKMET, Euro, NOGAPS, etc. And if TITAN or VIPR caused people on this thread to be alarmed, imagine what it does to the "regular folk" watching on TV.

Not to overly sing praises here, but both the mets on our channels 8 and 10 show spaghetti models during their forecasts. I think that since so many people were curious after last year regarding the models and how they work, the station mets here decided to incorporate them into their tropical outlooks during active storms. In fact, during Dennis, the mets took a lot of time explaining how the models work and pointing out why the NHC has the "cone" and all that.

Amen. 8,13,and 28 all show models as well as channel 7 down here in Sarasota. The display of the various spaghetti models are the same ones we all know and love here.

[gatorcane]

she has stalled for sure.....I hope that trough doesn't dig far enough to drive her N and NE into the west coast of FL...


sure looks like she is waiting to catch a ride if you ask me

[johngaltfla]

she has stalled for sure.....I hope that trough doesn't dig far enough to drive her N and NE into the west coast of FL...


sure looks like she is waiting to catch a ride if you ask me

Agreed. Clark's right up and then looking at the loop again (10th time this morning) made me think that this could drift for 12 hours then move again.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Charley drift around the Keys then intensify and move north??????????????(I was too busy boarding up and trying to get some sleep before landfall to watch all of the coverage that August 13)

[loon]

Yeah, well, last night at 6, didn't VIPR on channel 8 have Katrina on the more southern path that she ended up taking, and predicted her to be right where she is today? That is the same forecast that had her spinning back east and crossing over Tampa late Saturday. Either VIPR is on drugs, which to this point, it does not seem to be as far as its bang on predictions with last years storms and Katrina thus far, or it is really accurate. Totally different path than the NHC, though...we shall see...

IMHO, the lack of data from recon is affecting all of the models. But that forecast I saw from VIPIR scared the crap out of me too. A storm paralleling the coast is the worst case scenario for us west coasters.

And it looks like the storm has basically stalled for the last 3 hours...

It's gone .2 W and .1 S in the past 3 hours...that's not a stall...just a slow down

I'm going to borrow one of Clark's postings (a professional met) at CFHC. This should be somewhat alarming but heck, with this storm, I'm not sure what it's going to do...

Katrina is beginning to really slow down as the ridge over the south-central US begins to erode and move out. Radar motion over the past hour shows motion of about half of an anticyclonic loop, putting the storm about in the same location it was an hour ago. Water vapor imagery (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html) clearly shows the erosion of the ridge -- no longer is the moisture seen racing around in a clockwise fashion. The trough over the northern Plains continues to flatten it out and in response, the ridge has begun to move towards the SW, pretty much as projected last night. The trough continue to move south and eastward as shortwaves rotate around its periphery over the north-central Plains. As the ridge & trough move over the course of the day, Katrina should move slowly towards the west and gradually northwest in advance of the trough, heading for a second landfall in the Panhandle in the Sunday/Monday time frame.

The storm made it a bit further south than expected, but I think it's about as far south as it is going to go. It did slow down from last night, however -- 7hrs of motion for about 55-60 miles as opposed to 75-80 miles. That's going to continue now, I feel. Where that puts the storm at second landfall only remains to be seen. It's not gonig to be a good one for wherever it ends up.

I leave it to the pros (since Clark is a pro) but the pressure directly north of Kat doesn't appear to be decreasing much at all. It looks to be pressing south pretty successfully and I'm even starting to see (I think) a flat spot on Kat's north side showing evidence of the push. I think she will increase westward speed soon, just as the NHC as said. Then its all up to the weakness in the ridge (which is looking pretty strong at this point, but 36 hrs from now will be a different story).

THEN of course, should Kat bomb out, we get to start arguing about the "making their own environment" that the big storms always get.

Fun fun!!!

Flame away,
cheers,
loon

[storms in NC]

she has stalled for sure.....I hope that trough doesn't dig far enough to drive her N and NE into the west coast of FL...


sure looks like she is waiting to catch a ride if you ask me

don't say that to loud she might hear you

[melhow]

she has stalled for sure.....I hope that trough doesn't dig far enough to drive her N and NE into the west coast of FL...


sure looks like she is waiting to catch a ride if you ask me

Agreed. Clark's right up and then looking at the loop again (10th time this morning) made me think that this could drift for 12 hours then move again.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Charley drift around the Keys then intensify and move north??????????????(I was too busy boarding up and trying to get some sleep before landfall to watch all of the coverage that August 13)

Charley made it up from cuba to landfall in about 15 hours, exploding all the way.

From the NHC Archive:

By 0600 UTC, the eye was emerging from the north coast of Cuba, about 12 n mi west of Havana. Based on aerial reconnaissance observations, Charley weakened slightly over the lower Straits of Florida. Turning northward, the hurricane passed over the Dry Tortugas around 1200 UTC 13 August with maximum winds near 95 kt.

By the time Charley reached the Dry Tortugas, it came under the influence of an unseasonably strong mid-tropospheric trough that had dug from the east-central United States into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. In response to the steering flow on the southeast side of this trough, the hurricane turned north-northeastward and accelerated toward the southwest coast of Florida. It also began to intensify rapidly at this time. By 1400 UTC 13 August, the maximum winds had increased to near 110 kt. Just three hours later, Charley's maximum winds had increased to Category 4 strength of 125 kt. Since the eye shrank considerably in the 12 h before landfall in Florida, these extreme winds were confined to a very small area - within only about 6 n mi of the center. Moving north-northeastward at around 18 kt, Charley made landfall on the southwest coast of Florida near Cayo Costa, just north of Captiva, around 1945 UTC 13 August with maximum sustained winds near 130 kt. Charley's eye passed over Punta Gorda at about 2045 UTC,

[johngaltfla]

Thanks. I must have been thinking of another storm. There have been so many, it's hard to keep track of all them except for the ones that threaten or hit you...

Meanwhile, movement is very, very, very slow per 10 a.m. advisory...

.1 W

That's more of a drift than movement, IMHO.....