Derek Ortt maybe right!

[mobilebay]

The models continue to trend west and the model that had been the East outlier for days is now taking the hurricane into PCOLA. WOW! Let me introduce you to the 06Z GFS.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

[rainstorm]

that looks ominous

[CFL]

I wouldn't doubt that this could turn into a major hurricane. Katrina spending the night on the Everglades didn't help the situation.

[rockyman]

Yes...Derek has done a great job so far with Katrina! I was so glad that he didn't buy into the "Big Bend" landfall...I don't have stats, but it seems that the NHC often forecasts the Big Bend early on, and then has to move back west...I know that Joe B (no flames, please) has a theory about storms not going east of Appalachicola.

By the way, if the system follows the NHC path, it will come up very similar to Dennis...enough so that I made my hotel reservations this morning! We're going to try Meridian this time...For Dennis we went to the lovely village known as Montgomery (talk about post traumatic stress...try driving in Montgomery after living on Dauphin Island for years with no traffic lights)

[krysof]

Is this storm the biggest discussed this year so far or was there one being more discussed?

[wxwatcher91]

Is this storm the biggest discussed this year so far or was there one being more discussed?

looks like it... I slept 5 hours last night (11pm to 4am) and when I woke up the entire top page had new entries...

[tronbunny]

Derek and Cangiaolosi (sp?) have been very, very accurate since I've been watching (last year).
I take their analysis very seriously.

[dhweather]

Derek and his group have been quite good, particularly with GOMEX storms.

But hey, I never bought off on the sharp right turn either.

[Farseer]

The GFDL has been predicting this SW movment and long road through the gulf since the beginning when most of the other models were wanting to pull the storm W or WNW. It seems odd that teh GFDL picked up on this movement when the other models did not (and it was overlooked because of that).

[Nimbus]

We had four fatalities in Florida with Katrina only a cat1 storm.

The NHC has an awesome responsibility forecasting the next landfall in time to make the necessary and proper evacuations.

Currently Google is only saying Katrina will miss the oil fields.

The forecast ridge migration westward will have to start verifying or as new data becomes available the forecast will have to be changed.

The last 48 hours before landfall are critical so a clear landfall cone combined with timely media coverage will save a lot of lives.

[gulfcoastdave]

ORTT has been very good.

His track for us here in panhandle has never been as far east as NHC.............his track keeps the storm in the same general area Mobile to PC..............keeps looking like the NHC keeps adjusting left.

I do fear that the storm will be hitting the central gulf come monday from al/ms border to destin

[Frank2]

I hope everyone here who lives in the effected area is doing well - since power is still out in many areas of Broward and Dade (the power at my house is back on, though I'm concerned that some vehicles were lost in our building's parking lot due to fallen trees - two of the four fatalities were from fallen trees, and were within two or three miles of my home), I'm staying an extra night here in Sebring (Highlands Co) - being a hurricane evacuee isn't easy, even at a hotel.

Frank

P.S. The highway overpass that collapsed was one that has been under construction for the past several months (by my own experience).

P.P.S. Please keeep in your prayers the family of 5 (husband, wife and three children) missing off the southwest Florida coast - the Coast Guard is searching for their boat.

[x-y-no]

The GFDL has been predicting this SW movment and long road through the gulf since the beginning when most of the other models were wanting to pull the storm W or WNW. It seems odd that teh GFDL picked up on this movement when the other models did not (and it was overlooked because of that).

Yes. Although the GFDL did way overplay the strength of the storm, and track too far south into the Keys. But clearly, it did get the steering better than the other models did.

I think part of the explanation may be that the deeper steering was more southwest than the shallow steering, so the GFDL, which was deepening it much more than any other model, latched on to that. And when the storm did finally take on better organization yesterday, it was influenced by deeper steering than its TS/Cat1 status would indicate.

[NastyCat4]

The NHC generally does an excellent job with storms, given what they have to work with. They don't write the code for the models--a programmer is given data with which to work, and writes an application to do a job. In the case of the for the forecast models, the programs do not function with a great degree of accuracy--there are too many variables for them to deal with the accuracy of a storm track. If one is blaming the NHC, the blame is on the wrong shoulders. Not a single one of the computer models performs anywhere near being a reliable, satisfactory tool. The issue is either with the software designer, or the individuals who've tweaked the software with bad data. An example of this was the "extreme right hook" forecast for yesterday with Katrina--that wasn't and isn't going to happen to the degree to which it was modeled. The storm wasn't moving as per computer--its real world motion was contrary to what a computer was predicting, based on its programming parameters.

[mascpa]

Derek is right more times than not. Of all of the talented people who post on this site (and my sincere thanks to everyone!!!), I always listen to what Derek has to say. Not only does he have the training, knowledge and expertese, he also seems to have an intuitive knack for these storms.

[Agua]

Derek is right more times than not. Of all of the talented people who post on this site (and my sincere thanks to everyone!!!), I always listen to what Derek has to say. Not only does he have the training, knowledge and expertese, he also seems to have an intuitive knack for these storms.

Derek's forte', at least as far as demonstrated on this forum, is track forecasting, and he's very, very good. His group's discussions give you something to think about where the projected path vary from NHC's and explain the rationale behind the thinking without hyping.

[Frank2]

Yes, I'm worried that some will be very hard on the NHC for this unexpected outcome, but, their forecasts were accurate as far as forecasting a possible increase to Category 1 intensity. What they didn't expect was the unexpected looping motion these past several days - if you look at Katrina's track so far, it's similar to an "S"-shaped motion.

I must admit that last night's detour of the eyewall into Dade County gave me chills, since it did seem to catch many off-guard.

But, what is also an issue was the fact that most of the public seemed to take this entire situation for granted, though some may say they did so because the forecast "told them to" - a poor excuse.

Frank

P.S. Yes, Derek has done a good job, for sure. I feel somewhat badly about my trying to explain why the season would possibly remain in the lull mode for the rest of the year, but, considering all of the suffering in my community since yesterday afternoon, in my heart I know why I hoped for a quiet season.

[artist]

a thought I had this morning - I feel the counties that might possibly affected- their EOC have a lot to do with how people perceive their danger. It seems to me they hold off til the VERY last second to get any info out hoping to keep from losing $ from tourists, etc. If they were to come forward earlier and let us know to be prepared for the worst case scenario instead of a few hours before a storm is to hit would truly help alot in people's perception of how seriously to take the approaching situation.

[bevgo]

Yes...Derek has done a great job so far with Katrina! I was so glad that he didn't buy into the "Big Bend" landfall...I don't have stats, but it seems that the NHC often forecasts the Big Bend early on, and then has to move back west...I know that Joe B (no flames, please) has a theory about storms not going east of Appalachicola.

By the way, if the system follows the NHC path, it will come up very similar to Dennis...enough so that I made my hotel reservations this morning! We're going to try Meridian this time...For Dennis we went to the lovely village known as Montgomery (talk about post traumatic stress...try driving in Montgomery after living on Dauphin Island for years with no traffic lights)

Meridian is nice--my home town.. The only bad thing is that storms tend to go through there after they make landfall. I have been through several inland hurricane warnings there at mom's house--LOL. It is a nice place to stay but the rooms book early so reserve early.