Channel 8 (NBC) in Tampa's VIPIR--what the???
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Channel 8 (NBC) in Tampa's VIPIR--what the???
Their VIPIR (as of 8 a.m. this morning!!) is showing Katrina turning much sooner than in the official NHC track and paralleling the west coast of Florida...much more closely than (again) the official track. Wouldn't be too concerned but for VIPIR's success with Charley last year. What is VIPIR picking up (or missing)?
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Rainband
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caneman
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tampastorm
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Don't panic. Vipir also had Dennis barreling straight through Louisiana. It also showed Katrina skirting up the US east coast a couple days ago. I'm not sure about the Vipir anymore. One of our local mets trusted it so much he said since the Vipir showed Kat going up the east coast, we had NOTHING to worry about and that it was NOT going to go into the GOM. Needless to say, he was wrong, and I bet he wants to kick the VIPIR. He put way to much confidence in it.
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Yeah, well, last night at 6, didn't VIPR on channel 8 have Katrina on the more southern path that she ended up taking, and predicted her to be right where she is today? That is the same forecast that had her spinning back east and crossing over Tampa late Saturday. Either VIPR is on drugs, which to this point, it does not seem to be as far as its bang on predictions with last years storms and Katrina thus far, or it is really accurate. Totally different path than the NHC, though...we shall see...
Last edited by melhow on Fri Aug 26, 2005 8:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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johngaltfla
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melhow wrote:Yeah, well, last night at 6, didn't VIPR on channel 8 have Katrina on the more southern path that she ended up taking, and predicted her to be right where she is today? That is the same forecast that had her spinning back east and crossing over Tampa late Saturday. Either VIPR is on drugs, which to this point, it does not seem to be as far as its bang on predictions with last years storms and Katrina thus far, or it is really accurate. Totally different path than the NHC, though...we shall see...
IMHO, the lack of data from recon is affecting all of the models. But that forecast I saw from VIPIR scared the crap out of me too. A storm paralleling the coast is the worst case scenario for us west coasters.
And it looks like the storm has basically stalled for the last 3 hours...
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Rainband
caneman wrote:Rainband wrote:If titan see it too then I will be concerned. Although vipir did well with charley
Hey Rainband,
What is Titan? Who uses it? Forigve the ignorance
It is similar to VIPIR, On channel 28 the ABC station in Tampa. Check the link about TITAN:
http://wfts.com/weather/index.shtml
Robert
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Went through this last year...
VIPIR (and apparently TITAN) isn't REALLY a model, but apparently local station "mets" seem to claim or imply it is (none of the stations up here where I live use it so I have to go by word-of-mouth and a bit of research on the net.)
It's merely a fancy graphics package that stations subscribe to use. And local stations like to claim they have their own exclusive "models" which is a total crock.
VIPIR (and apparently TITAN) isn't REALLY a model, but apparently local station "mets" seem to claim or imply it is (none of the stations up here where I live use it so I have to go by word-of-mouth and a bit of research on the net.)
It's merely a fancy graphics package that stations subscribe to use. And local stations like to claim they have their own exclusive "models" which is a total crock.
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"It is similar to VIPIR, On channel 28 the ABC station in Tampa. Check the link about TITAN:
http://wfts.com/weather/index.shtml"
Ah, the Bay Area model wars...
So, what's TITAN saying on Katrina 24-36 hours out? I'm a Steve Jervy junkie, so I don't catch Dennis Phillips too much (his suspenders distract me)...
http://wfts.com/weather/index.shtml"
Ah, the Bay Area model wars...
So, what's TITAN saying on Katrina 24-36 hours out? I'm a Steve Jervy junkie, so I don't catch Dennis Phillips too much (his suspenders distract me)...
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johngaltfla wrote:melhow wrote:Yeah, well, last night at 6, didn't VIPR on channel 8 have Katrina on the more southern path that she ended up taking, and predicted her to be right where she is today? That is the same forecast that had her spinning back east and crossing over Tampa late Saturday. Either VIPR is on drugs, which to this point, it does not seem to be as far as its bang on predictions with last years storms and Katrina thus far, or it is really accurate. Totally different path than the NHC, though...we shall see...
IMHO, the lack of data from recon is affecting all of the models. But that forecast I saw from VIPIR scared the crap out of me too. A storm paralleling the coast is the worst case scenario for us west coasters.
And it looks like the storm has basically stalled for the last 3 hours...
It's gone .2 W and .1 S in the past 3 hours...that's not a stall...just a slow down
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From the Channel 8 site regarding VIPIR:
VIPIR
Advanced Weather Technology From The Storm Team
Storm Team 8 has state-of-the-art technology to bring the most accurate and dependable weather forecasting to the Tampa Bay area. Storm Team 8 VIPIR has set the standard in storm tracking accuracy by predicting Hurricane Charley's easterly turn last season.
Built on the backbone of the National Weather Service's NEXRAD II DOPPLER Radar, it is the same weather radar used to issue life-saving warnings. The advantage of Storm Team 8 VIPIR is its accuracy and power - more than 2 million-watts of Doppler radar energy.
Storm Team 8 VIPIR has two power modes: Forecast Mode and Threat Mode. Storm Team 8 will use Forecast Mode to track weather systems instantaneously, minute-by-minute, as the most dangerous storm cells approach Bay area neighborhoods. That will give families the time they need to seek shelter and stay safe. Storm Team 8 meteorologists will use Threat Mode to punch inside a storm in real-time 3-D.
The VIPIR (Volumetric Imaging and Processing of Integrated Radar) system is a 3-D severe weather tool that uses patented mathematical analysis, continuous live scanning, and unmatched display capability. Multiple radar installations across the Bay area continuously scan the atmosphere. That information feeds into the Storm Team 8 Forecast Center. Meteorologists watch for special alert symbols called ''Shear Markers'' that identify ''Dangerous Twisting of the Winds." This provides Storm Team 8 forecasters with proven technology that delivers the fastest, most powerful, and most accurate severe weather forecasting system in the Bay area
VIPIR
Advanced Weather Technology From The Storm Team
Storm Team 8 has state-of-the-art technology to bring the most accurate and dependable weather forecasting to the Tampa Bay area. Storm Team 8 VIPIR has set the standard in storm tracking accuracy by predicting Hurricane Charley's easterly turn last season.
Built on the backbone of the National Weather Service's NEXRAD II DOPPLER Radar, it is the same weather radar used to issue life-saving warnings. The advantage of Storm Team 8 VIPIR is its accuracy and power - more than 2 million-watts of Doppler radar energy.
Storm Team 8 VIPIR has two power modes: Forecast Mode and Threat Mode. Storm Team 8 will use Forecast Mode to track weather systems instantaneously, minute-by-minute, as the most dangerous storm cells approach Bay area neighborhoods. That will give families the time they need to seek shelter and stay safe. Storm Team 8 meteorologists will use Threat Mode to punch inside a storm in real-time 3-D.
The VIPIR (Volumetric Imaging and Processing of Integrated Radar) system is a 3-D severe weather tool that uses patented mathematical analysis, continuous live scanning, and unmatched display capability. Multiple radar installations across the Bay area continuously scan the atmosphere. That information feeds into the Storm Team 8 Forecast Center. Meteorologists watch for special alert symbols called ''Shear Markers'' that identify ''Dangerous Twisting of the Winds." This provides Storm Team 8 forecasters with proven technology that delivers the fastest, most powerful, and most accurate severe weather forecasting system in the Bay area
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I find it shameful that TV stations use "TITAN" and "VIPR" systems to show the movement of tropical cyclones, but they NEVER show REAL models on the screen...I can't recall EVER seeing (or hardly even hearing) a TV Met talk about GFS, UKMET, Euro, NOGAPS, etc. And if TITAN or VIPR caused people on this thread to be alarmed, imagine what it does to the "regular folk" watching on TV.
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inotherwords
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Aren't TITAN and VIPR just graphics packages that reflect the conditions at hand, and mets can use whatever models they want for their predictions and then plug them into the system?
It would be good to know this.
Bob Harrigan in Sarasota has talked about the models on many occasions and has even shown graphics of their predictions just to prove that there are divergent opinions about a storm. He did that about Katrina just several days ago when it was first predicted to hit FL as a tropical storm or marginal hurricane. I watch him because, as I'm 20 miles south of Sarasota, he's more local to me than the Tampa guys, and I actually like him a lot better. He's a real die-hard weather geek and so many of the other guys just come across as talking heads.
It would be good to know this.
Bob Harrigan in Sarasota has talked about the models on many occasions and has even shown graphics of their predictions just to prove that there are divergent opinions about a storm. He did that about Katrina just several days ago when it was first predicted to hit FL as a tropical storm or marginal hurricane. I watch him because, as I'm 20 miles south of Sarasota, he's more local to me than the Tampa guys, and I actually like him a lot better. He's a real die-hard weather geek and so many of the other guys just come across as talking heads.
Last edited by inotherwords on Fri Aug 26, 2005 8:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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rockyman wrote:I find it shameful that TV stations use "TITAN" and "VIPR" systems to show the movement of tropical cyclones, but they NEVER show REAL models on the screen...I can't recall EVER seeing (or hardly even hearing) a TV Met talk about GFS, UKMET, Euro, NOGAPS, etc. And if TITAN or VIPR caused people on this thread to be alarmed, imagine what it does to the "regular folk" watching on TV.
Not to overly sing praises here, but both the mets on our channels 8 and 10 show spaghetti models during their forecasts. I think that since so many people were curious after last year regarding the models and how they work, the station mets here decided to incorporate them into their tropical outlooks during active storms. In fact, during Dennis, the mets took a lot of time explaining how the models work and pointing out why the NHC has the "cone" and all that.
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melhow wrote:rockyman wrote:I find it shameful that TV stations use "TITAN" and "VIPR" systems to show the movement of tropical cyclones, but they NEVER show REAL models on the screen...I can't recall EVER seeing (or hardly even hearing) a TV Met talk about GFS, UKMET, Euro, NOGAPS, etc. And if TITAN or VIPR caused people on this thread to be alarmed, imagine what it does to the "regular folk" watching on TV.
Not to overly sing praises here, but both the mets on our channels 8 and 10 show spaghetti models during their forecasts. I think that since so many people were curious after last year regarding the models and how they work, the station mets here decided to incorporate them into their tropical outlooks during active storms. In fact, during Dennis, the mets took a lot of time explaining how the models work and pointing out why the NHC has the "cone" and all that.
Wow...I've never seen that here...but I've not had local weather since last season...and you KNOW TWC isn't going to show a model map. Thanks for the info!!
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mvtrucking
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