13 miles until water for Katrina

[JTD]

OK, Thanks guys. I kind of had my hopes up after I read that it had stalled that maybe it'd stay over land longer but I guess not.

[Coredesat]

No hurricane warning because hurricane force winds don't extend out that far from the center. At least, they didn't while Katrina was a hurricane (I think 20 miles at greatest extent?).

[deltadog03]

she is off the coast!!!!

[InimanaChoogamaga]

No hurricane warning because hurricane force winds don't extend out that far from the center. At least, they didn't while Katrina was a hurricane (I think 20 miles at greatest extent?).

True. But I meant with the storm headed SW towards the keys and the possiblity of it strengthening back to a Cat 1 over water. Hurricane Warning (i think) means Hurricane force winds will be experienced within 24 hours.

[Stormcenter]

I thought she maybe has stalled earlier, but the latest frame 1211 I believe, actually shows another jog southward in my eyes.

Yes it sure does look like she took jog southward.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... evzoom=pan

[ConvergenceZone]

This is the WORST possible track that this storm could have taken. I was hoping for just a due west which would have left the storm at a weak tropical storm status, but now due to the more south movement and the fact that it's already moving off-shore, I think it may potentially be a monster. Prior to the change in direction, I was thinking that it would strengthen just to a Cat 2 before hitting the Florida Panhandle, but now I'm thinking Cat 3 with an OUTSIDE chance of a Cat 4, but hopefully that won't happen, but I don't see it being weaker than a minimal Cat 3, due to the fact that it's moving offshore right now just shy of hurricane status plus the excellent conditions for development.

This weekend will be crazy.

[Coredesat]

No hurricane warning because hurricane force winds don't extend out that far from the center. At least, they didn't while Katrina was a hurricane (I think 20 miles at greatest extent?).

True. But I meant with the storm headed SW towards the keys and the possiblity of it strengthening back to a Cat 1 over water. Hurricane Warning (i think) means Hurricane force winds will be experienced within 24 hours.

I still don't think hurricane force winds would extend out that far, but if I were the NHC, I wouldn't be taking any chances. I wouldn't be surprised to see those issued in or before the 3 AM advisory.

[Derek Ortt]

a Warning probably should be issued

I saw a 64KT velocity on doppler from MIA over the upper keys not too long ago, probably 55KT at the surface

[ConvergenceZone]

Yeah, shes just about to exit. The bad news is that the western bands are rejuvenating pretty well offshore. This storm held its structure, therefore it should start intensifying right after it gets back over water....not to mention 90+ degree water.

I agree. There's nothing to RE-organize as it's already there. I really have a feeling they are underestimating the strength that this storm will get to, and more than likely we will see the forecasted strength adjusted upward tomorrow morning. Not hyping, just the way I see it. I keep looking for inhibiting factors, but I just can't find them.

[Derek Ortt]

it may also be time to consider a TS warning for Cuba

[Coredesat]

it may also be time to consider a TS warning for Cuba

Beat me to it. I was thinking about that when I looked at my post about how far hurricane force winds generally extended from the center. They're gonna have to issue it soon, though, unless Katrina decides to turn due west at the last possible second.

[sponger]

True Derek, I have a feeling alot of sleeping Cubans are now up wondering what the hell?

[jkt21787]

True Derek, I have a feeling alot of sleeping Cubans are now up wondering what the hell?

I'm sure Castro thinks we're directing it toward them.

[krysof]

Time here is 1:50 EST. My final thought before I go to sleep is: I hope I don't get shocked tomorrow morning. Hopefully it won't explode quickly.

[Stormcenter]

True Derek, I have a feeling alot of sleeping Cubans are now up wondering what the hell?

I'm sure Castro thinks we're directing it toward them.

LMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!

[JTD]

True Derek, I have a feeling alot of sleeping Cubans are now up wondering what the hell?

Isn't Cuba on EDT too?

[skysummit]

Man this is nuts! Is she really almost going SSW now?

[LAwxrgal]

These are the tropics.

And the tropics have been known to do funky things.

Case in point: last night and this morning.

[ConvergenceZone]

yikes, latest radar showing eye almost offshore now. I remember last night they were thinking that it wouldn't most offshort until late tomorrow. This is not good.

[LilNoles2005]

I've been trying, and trying, and trying to find the recent noticeable SW jog that you guys are talking about, but I don't see it... in fact, in the past hour, it looks like it's moving less southerly than it had been the previous 6 hours...