If the first shortwave.......

tampastorm · #1 Postby **tampastorm** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:01 am

Misses her to far south, is there anything coming next to pull her ? Or is TX in trouble?

Stratosphere747 · #2 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:03 am

No Tx talk here...

That would be one heck of a shift...

hurricanedude · #3 Postby **hurricanedude** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:03 am

this SW jog is not an unexpected event...I think the final outcome will be the same...Central Fl panhandle...likely the big bend area...

tampastorm · #4 Postby **tampastorm** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:06 am

I just how wonder how long the SW "jog" will last? Also when or if will it pick up speed? Talk about a long weekend!

krysof · #5 Postby **krysof** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:06 am

What a huge error that would be? The NHC would be kicking thereselves if that would happen?

#6 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:17 am

hurricanedude wrote:this SW jog is not an unexpected event...I think the final outcome will be the same...Central Fl panhandle...likely the big bend area...

Yep. Isn't that how it always seems to wind up? In spite of all the conjecture and dissenting opinions among weather enthusiasts, all the talk of how this storm will surprise the experts and such, Katrina will likely end up pretty close to where the National Hurricane Center's three day track map said she would. :lol:

#7 Postby **Frank P** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:18 am

hurricanedude wrote:this SW jog is not an unexpected event...I think the final outcome will be the same...Central Fl panhandle...likely the big bend area...

SW was not a jog it was a distinct track... and the speed of this track was not forecasted by anyone... now what affect that has, if any, remains to be seen

tampastorm · #8 Postby **tampastorm** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:19 am

The crazy part is with the speed or lack of, the projected path might change 10 more times or so.

krysof · #9 Postby **krysof** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:20 am

Well the NHC expected it too jog south due to a stationary front to the north of it or something but definetelly not that far south at all.

Dmetal81 · #10 Postby **Dmetal81** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:21 am

Frank P wrote:
hurricanedude wrote:this SW jog is not an unexpected event...I think the final outcome will be the same...Central Fl panhandle...likely the big bend area...

SW was not a jog it was a distinct track... and the speed of this track was not forecasted by anyone... now what affect that has, if any, remains to be seen

I have to disagree Frank P, the NHC discussion mentioned the GFS model deviating with a southwest path repeatedly on their advisory discussions. That because the GFS model had been so reliable this year, although unlikely, they could not rule it out. She took the SW path, just a farther west than the gfs forecast.

tampastorm · #11 Postby **tampastorm** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:23 am

As mentioned before, I am very curious when the SW movement will stop? Then what? WOW what a storm!

hurricanedude · #12 Postby **hurricanedude** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:25 am

this thing could go as far west as 88-89 longitude....but that would likely lead to a sharper NE Turn...result...still FL panhandle!

#13 Postby **Frank P** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:26 am

I did not say the SW track was not forecast nor unexpected, I just pointed out that the SW motion was not a real JOG per se, it has gone on for the entire trip across Florida.. that in my opinion is NOT a jog,,, what I said was totally unexpected was the speed that the system took as it TRACKED southwest over the the southern part of Florida...

I am in agreement with you that the SW track was forecast, but I don't think it was forecast to go quite as far SW as it did... I could go back and check the NHC track from earlier today to verify but my eyes are burning and I'm sleepy as hell, and the worst part of it all I have to get up at 5:00 am... :eek:

hurricanedude · #14 Postby **hurricanedude** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:28 am

may i suggest 3 no-doze and a red bull!! :grrr:

#15 Postby **Frank P** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:30 am

hurricanedude wrote:this thing could go as far west as 88-89 longitude....but that would likely lead to a sharper NE Turn...result...still FL panhandle!

this is certainly possible if the trough digs down deep enough to pick it up... no doubt.... and this certainly is plausible ... however, if it does not and pressure builds back in who know what could happen... I don't know what this thing is going to do..

#16 Postby **Frank P** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:32 am

hurricanedude wrote:may i suggest 3 no-doze and a red bull!!

yes doctor, thanks... and the checks in the mail...

I sure hope this thing goes east of me because its way to early to be spending these late hours tracking this darn storm.. :roll:

hurricanedude · #17 Postby **hurricanedude** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:35 am

cash only!!! no checks...LOL
but the first one is always on the house, ....

NorthGaWeather · #18 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:36 am

hurricanedude wrote:this thing could go as far west as 88-89 longitude....but that would likely lead to a sharper NE Turn...result...still FL panhandle!

Don't see that happening. If it reached that longitude it would most likely be into AL.

#19 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:49 am

hurricanedude wrote:this thing could go as far west as 88-89 longitude....but that would likely lead to a sharper NE Turn...result...still FL panhandle!

Not neccessarily.

#20 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:50 am

NorthGaWeather wrote:
hurricanedude wrote:this thing could go as far west as 88-89 longitude....but that would likely lead to a sharper NE Turn...result...still FL panhandle!

Don't see that happening. If it reached that longitude it would most likely be into AL.

Agree.

If the first shortwave.......

If the first shortwave.......

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