Can someone explain.......

[tampastorm]

why the shift to the west? With the southwest movement I thought it was a given there would be an east shift. I appreciate any info. Thanks!

[Brent]

Perhaps the ridge that forced it south today not weakening... I always assumed the farther south it went, the less turn to the north it would make.

[CronkPSU]

i'm glad someone else asked this, in my mind I was thinking the further south it goes, the further the 2nd landfall should be east (assuming it goes NE at some point)

[tampastorm]

Exactly! I figure on a west track it would be a few degrees further north right off the bat.

[deltadog03]

got to think though....will that shortwave effect katrina...and if when?? too many questions...

[tampastorm]

And also I think for it to be on the NHC track , they having it turning back west very soon.

[Sean in New Orleans]

The further South the system goes, the more likely it will miss the trough, IMO. I'm with the opinion(s) that this system has a chance to continue on West to Texas. We'll see. The belief that it will hit Tampa is still out there, so, the range of opinions on Katrina is literally spread from one end of the Gulf to the other. This is an interesting system, to say the least. Whatever happens, I'm becoming increasingly concerned about this system really getting it's act together. It has become quite impressive over the last 24 hours and shows little or no signs of slowing down with its' increasing intensity. The main concern is somebody could be dealing with a very dangerous hurricane in a few days....

[tampastorm]

Yea, its amazing at this point how such a wide area should be IMO VERY concerned, amazing!

[Rainband]

The further South the system goes, the more likely it will miss the trough, IMO. I'm with the opinion(s) that this system has a chance to continue on West to Texas. We'll see. The belief that it will hit Tampa is still out there, so, the range of opinions on Katrina is literally spread from one end of the Gulf to the other. This is an interesting system, to say the least. Whatever happens, I'm becoming increasingly concerned about this system really getting it's act together. It has become quite impressive over the last 24 hours and shows little or no signs of slowing down with its' increasing intensity. The main concern is somebody could be dealing with a very dangerous hurricane in a few days....

I agree it could hit anywhere at this point. Goes to show us how fickle the tropics can be.

[Dean4Storms]

There are two ridges affecting Katrina, the one over the east which turned her westward and the one over the western Gulf/Texas which ridged eastward to the Eastern ridge. The Shortwave now over the plains is eroding the Eastern Ridge on the western periphery, this will stop the pure western movement of Katrina. The ridge extending eastward from TX/Western Gulf is weakening as well. With the shortwave now in the plains eroding the eastern CONUS ridge it opens the door for this shortwave to cause a weakness between the ridges over the Gulf and then this will also allow the Canadian trough to swing southward and pick up Katrina out of the Gulf (The NNE turn).

Basically the further west she goes the further west along the Gulf coast she ends up. I don't think the ridge in the western Gulf will keep turning her to the WSW much longer, it is being pressed by both the Shortwave and Katrina. Look for her to turn more to the west with a turn more wnw probably by tonight.

[tampastorm]

I am just worried all media saying Tama Bay is out of the woods. Not buying it yet. We are still at 20% on the probablity chart. 1 in 5,dont like those odds.

[Stormcenter]

i'm glad someone else asked this, in my mind I was thinking the further south it goes, the further the 2nd landfall should be east (assuming it goes NE at some point)

But it hasn't just been traveling just south. It's been traveling WSW. It's pretty basic. I'm not sure what you guys are missing.

[TS Zack]

12z Hurricane Models, continue with the West shift.

[LAwxrgal]

12z Hurricane Models, continue with the West shift.

Didn't the 0Z models go a little east of yesterday's 12z runs?

[Galvestongirl]

dwg71 wrote:

Galvestongirl wrote:
o.k...it states that it will move more northerly as the midlevel ridge moves. If this ridge does not move and no weakness is there will it still go north?

the high pressure is retrograding sw, and there is a weakness. Models are as tightly clustered as they have been with Kat. dont expect muc deviation from her forecast path. NHC hasnt wavered in three days. South tip fl, GOM, then panhandle. Just slight variances of that.


that much I understand, however, I was asking that because I am under the impression that the more stronger a cane the more poleward it will go...so, if it did not create a weakness, would it still go north?....oh and I forgot to add......does that mean all this nasty humidity will finally go away...wheew it was awful last night when I was walking the dogs.

O.k..here is a question I asked in another thread but It got buried, maybe someone can answer it in this one.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

Will that trough have any effect on Katrina's final landfall intensity? Most recent Northern GOM storms (Lili, Ivan, Dennis, Opal) have weakened considerably before hitting up there due to trough interaction and dry air.

[caneman]

Will that trough have any effect on Katrina's final landfall intensity? Most recent Northern GOM storms (Lili, Ivan, Dennis, Opal) have weakened considerably before hitting up there due to trough interaction and dry air.

That was due to cooler waters near the coast. A trough will have some impact though but it didn't on Charley

[dcuevas]

Okay I'm so confused! I'm not sure about anyone else but my news here in Tampa is saying nothing to worry about. However my thoughts are if Katrina does intensify and skates up the West Coast of Florida we are in for a rough ride. It is only my opinion that everyone is banking on the trough to take her out further to the north. Please correct me if I'm wrong. THANKS!

[gatorcane]

Tampa Bay should not be complacent...it's meandering around now and could be picked up by the trough should the ridge weaken faster than expected. ..