We're Trying; But NOT YET--It will still be a Long Time...

[Sean in New Orleans]

Well, we are human and we have absolutely no room for arrogance or I "said so's." Talk about a miss with Katrina...with all of the science, million dollar computers, discussion, intelligence, and the NHC couldn't even predict the path of this system in the next hour!!! Good God. Now, if anyone has seen my posts, they know, I will praise the NHC and have done so in the past, but, this system should make any forecaster or weather afficionado feel humbled. We STILL can't do it...we cannot predict nature completely accurately. We can't even predict with radar, satellite, computers, etc, etc, that a hurricane will shift to the SW within the next hour. And we are discussing that this system will hit Appalachicola?!? LOL, in a real big way. Let's get real. There is no telling where this system is going to go...I don't care what one single person says or argues on this board, or any other board, for that matter. As for my OPINION...this hurricane has just as good a chance of hitting Corpus Christi as it does Appalachicola. Yes...this system could easily continue West clear across the GOM and I'm not being obnoxious here....there are scenario's of this happening and it was even mentioned tonight by WWL's Chief Met Carl Arredondo on the 10:00 news. Now who really knows what is going to happen??? Anyone care to predict the next hour or two!?!?!

[Ixolib]

Wow - Sean may not say much, but when he speaks - even E.F. Hutton listens.

Interesting viewpoint, none-the-less!!

[NastyCat4]

I agree with him--with that track SW, it would take almost a 180 degree reverse twist to make the right hook as originally predicted. No one knows where this baby is going--but that "right hook?" Give that one a rest.

[jasons2k]

Great post IMO. This storm will be remembered as a reality check for a long time.

[tw861]

I agree with you.

As far as predicting, I'll give it a shot. As measured from the Key West radar, she is less than 20 miles from the coast if she were to move due west and only about 16 miles if the present motion continues. I predict she will be over water in 3 hours or less and would be very surprised if shes only got 45 kt winds in 12 hours.

And of course:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Acral]

I still hold to my MS landfall, I just do not see the "hook".

[Ixolib]

I agree with him--with that track SW, it would take almost a 180 degree reverse twist to make the right hook as originally predicted. No one knows where this baby is going--but that "right hook?" Give that one a rest.

But, since the GFDL has been spot-on thus far, is there any reason to believe it will not be spot-on going forward?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2005082518-katrina12l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[PTrackerLA]

It's hard to believe NHC's forecast track based on current motion but they have surprisingly proved me wrong quite a few times. But then again it's times like these that make the hurricane season more exciting (only talking about surprising changes in path, strength). Let's face it, Emily was a bad storm, but also very boring.

[cajungal]

Never let your guard down until a storm is pass your latitude or inland.

[MGC]

The GFDL moves the storm NW shorly after she hits the GOM. I doubt that NW turn happens that quick......MGC

[Sean in New Orleans]

This isn't really directed at the NHC. It's more of making a point, that, in spite of it all, nature STILL has the last call...we've got plenty to learn. I've been leary of computer models ever since they came out...but, they are only a tool. They are not the forecast. The best predictor of what this system is going to do is to do it the old fashioned way...follow the barometric pressure in front of it's movement. Whereever it is dropping faster than other areas (even if it's miniscule), will provide us with the answer of where Katrina is going. The models have obviously been pretty confused for a few days with this one...all you have to do is look at them and see that they are confused...they are making wild, radical changes with each run.

[Wthrman13]

Well, we are human and we have absolutely no room for arrogance or I "said so's." Talk about a miss with Katrina...with all of the science, million dollar computers, discussion, intelligence, and the NHC couldn't even predict the path of this system in the next hour!!! Good God. Now, if anyone has seen my posts, they know, I will praise the NHC and have done so in the past, but, this system should make any forecaster or weather afficionado feel humbled. We STILL can't do it...we cannot predict nature completely accurately. We can't even predict with radar, satellite, computers, etc, etc, that a hurricane will shift to the SW within the next hour. And we are discussing that this system will hit Appalachicola?!? LOL, in a real big way. Let's get real. There is no telling where this system is going to go...I don't care what one single person says or argues on this board, or any other board, for that matter. As for my OPINION...this hurricane has just as good a chance of hitting Corpus Christi as it does Appalachicola. Yes...this system could easily continue West clear across the GOM and I'm not being obnoxious here....there are scenario's of this happening and it was even mentioned tonight by WWL's Chief Met Carl Arredondo on the 10:00 news. Now who really knows what is going to happen??? Anyone care to predict the next hour or two!?!?!

Um... Unless I'm mistaken, the NHC's 11 pm. advisory had it moving SW at 7 kts. They didn't "miss" the SW movement, but may have been a little slow on the speed. But you are right, there are still many things to learn about hurricane movement and intensity. Overall though, the track forecasting has improved dramatically. For a given storm though, it can be better or worse, but it doesn't mean that the overall improvement we've seen in track forecasting isn't significant, because it is.

There's no way this thing has as good of a chance of hitting Corpus Christi as Appalachicola. I'm chalking this up to hyperbole on your part.

Finally, some of the guidance, including the GFDL and UKMET have been showing the possibility of this SW turn for days, and the NHC has been saying as much in their discussions.

Let's keep things in perspective folks.

[frederic79]

Some things God only knows and we are not Him, no matter how intellegent we think we are or how skillful we become. The NHC is outstanding and I applaud their efforts, but sometimes even they miss it. After all, they're human. Time will tell.

[jasons2k]

I agree with him--with that track SW, it would take almost a 180 degree reverse twist to make the right hook as originally predicted. No one knows where this baby is going--but that "right hook?" Give that one a rest.

But, since the GFDL has been spot-on thus far, is there any reason to believe it will not be spot-on going forward?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2005082518-katrina12l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

GFDL had a good run but I wouldn't call it spot on. Earlier today it had it clearing FL to the south.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Well, we are human and we have absolutely no room for arrogance or I "said so's." Talk about a miss with Katrina...with all of the science, million dollar computers, discussion, intelligence, and the NHC couldn't even predict the path of this system in the next hour!!! Good God. Now, if anyone has seen my posts, they know, I will praise the NHC and have done so in the past, but, this system should make any forecaster or weather afficionado feel humbled. We STILL can't do it...we cannot predict nature completely accurately. We can't even predict with radar, satellite, computers, etc, etc, that a hurricane will shift to the SW within the next hour. And we are discussing that this system will hit Appalachicola?!? LOL, in a real big way. Let's get real. There is no telling where this system is going to go...I don't care what one single person says or argues on this board, or any other board, for that matter. As for my OPINION...this hurricane has just as good a chance of hitting Corpus Christi as it does Appalachicola. Yes...this system could easily continue West clear across the GOM and I'm not being obnoxious here....there are scenario's of this happening and it was even mentioned tonight by WWL's Chief Met Carl Arredondo on the 10:00 news. Now who really knows what is going to happen??? Anyone care to predict the next hour or two!?!?!

Um... Unless I'm mistaken, the NHC's 11 pm. advisory had it moving SW at 7 kts. They didn't "miss" the SW movement, but may have been a little slow on the speed.

Did they say it was going to do this at 8:00PM? I'm not talking about "after the fact." I'm talking about predicting the future....

[Wthrman13]

Well, we are human and we have absolutely no room for arrogance or I "said so's." Talk about a miss with Katrina...with all of the science, million dollar computers, discussion, intelligence, and the NHC couldn't even predict the path of this system in the next hour!!! Good God. Now, if anyone has seen my posts, they know, I will praise the NHC and have done so in the past, but, this system should make any forecaster or weather afficionado feel humbled. We STILL can't do it...we cannot predict nature completely accurately. We can't even predict with radar, satellite, computers, etc, etc, that a hurricane will shift to the SW within the next hour. And we are discussing that this system will hit Appalachicola?!? LOL, in a real big way. Let's get real. There is no telling where this system is going to go...I don't care what one single person says or argues on this board, or any other board, for that matter. As for my OPINION...this hurricane has just as good a chance of hitting Corpus Christi as it does Appalachicola. Yes...this system could easily continue West clear across the GOM and I'm not being obnoxious here....there are scenario's of this happening and it was even mentioned tonight by WWL's Chief Met Carl Arredondo on the 10:00 news. Now who really knows what is going to happen??? Anyone care to predict the next hour or two!?!?!

Um... Unless I'm mistaken, the NHC's 11 pm. advisory had it moving SW at 7 kts. They didn't "miss" the SW movement, but may have been a little slow on the speed.

Did they say it was going to do this at 8:00PM? I'm not talking about "after the fact." I'm talking about predicting the future....

See my edited post above. I inserted some caveats.

[Javlin]

The GFDL moves the storm NW shorly after she hits the GOM. I doubt that NW turn happens that quick......MGC

You got that right MGC it ain't happening soon thats for sure.Katrina has really been a fun system to track.She's a sleeper,snuck in on Miami now the GOM.What does she do next the million dollar question.

[mobilebay]

Well, we are human and we have absolutely no room for arrogance or I "said so's." Talk about a miss with Katrina...with all of the science, million dollar computers, discussion, intelligence, and the NHC couldn't even predict the path of this system in the next hour!!! Good God. Now, if anyone has seen my posts, they know, I will praise the NHC and have done so in the past, but, this system should make any forecaster or weather afficionado feel humbled. We STILL can't do it...we cannot predict nature completely accurately. We can't even predict with radar, satellite, computers, etc, etc, that a hurricane will shift to the SW within the next hour. And we are discussing that this system will hit Appalachicola?!? LOL, in a real big way. Let's get real. There is no telling where this system is going to go...I don't care what one single person says or argues on this board, or any other board, for that matter. As for my OPINION...this hurricane has just as good a chance of hitting Corpus Christi as it does Appalachicola. Yes...this system could easily continue West clear across the GOM and I'm not being obnoxious here....there are scenario's of this happening and it was even mentioned tonight by WWL's Chief Met Carl Arredondo on the 10:00 news. Now who really knows what is going to happen??? Anyone care to predict the next hour or two!?!?!

Sean I've read your posts. You may not post a lot but when a strom is in the GOM you sure do. I remember you saying the NHC was wrong about Ivan, Dennis, and others. In my opinion This storm will not go any further west than say Pensacola.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I just need to see some discussion that says Katrina was going to go to Key West since, say, 6:00? Is that enough time??? Can you please post a link, Wthrman13? I'd love to be corrected...but, this system is heading towards Key West or just to the North of there, IT APPEARS?! Show me the discussion, I'd love to read it....

[canetracker]

I agree with him--with that track SW, it would take almost a 180 degree reverse twist to make the right hook as originally predicted. No one knows where this baby is going--but that "right hook?" Give that one a rest.

But, since the GFDL has been spot-on thus far, is there any reason to believe it will not be spot-on going forward?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2005082518-katrina12l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

IMO, Well it is definitely wrong on the time frame. According to the GFDL it is not supposed to be at its current approx position til tomorrow at 1200z. It therefore can't take into account, the current set up of the highs and lows.