Hurricane Katrina

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Sanibel
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#461 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 25, 2005 10:58 pm

Amazing storm here folks. Looks like it is staying away from Sanibel.

It is continuing SW, not recorrecting west! This is GFDL folks.


Will emerge now 1:30am

Storm is now taking serious dry air from land and high pressure that is driving it south.
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MyGulfParadise
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#462 Postby MyGulfParadise » Thu Aug 25, 2005 10:59 pm

The last frame looks like the eyewall is starting to close up.
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#463 Postby Stratosphere747 » Thu Aug 25, 2005 11:00 pm

It's hard to believe how much she is dipping south tonight..

Almost due south now....
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#464 Postby mtm4319 » Thu Aug 25, 2005 11:00 pm

Is it just me, or do the Florida Keys magically appear on this NHC product on the last frame? lol.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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#465 Postby mtm4319 » Thu Aug 25, 2005 11:01 pm

Deleted, disregard.
Last edited by mtm4319 on Thu Aug 25, 2005 11:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Brent
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#466 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 25, 2005 11:01 pm

HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
12 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

AT 12 AM EDT...0400Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED
BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS INLAND OVER THE EVERGLADES IN EASTERN MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTY FLORIDA...ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA
AND ABOUT 70 MILES NORTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

FORECASTER KNABB
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ALhurricane
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#467 Postby ALhurricane » Thu Aug 25, 2005 11:03 pm

00z GFS out through 72 hours... definitely further west

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml
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gatorcane
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#468 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 25, 2005 11:04 pm

Is it just me, or do the Florida Keys magically appear on this NHC product on the last frame? lol.


interesting....
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#469 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 25, 2005 11:04 pm

Eyes2theSkies wrote:I live near Orlando and I am supposed to be going on vacation to tennessee on Saturday. Do you think I should stay put.


It might come visit you on vacation... :lol:

What part of TN? The mountains?
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AL Chili Pepper
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#470 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Thu Aug 25, 2005 11:05 pm

The new 00Z GFS is slightly left of where it was. Looks like around Fort Walton / Destin.
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#471 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Aug 25, 2005 11:06 pm

AL Chili Pepper wrote:The new 00Z GFS is slightly left of where it was. Looks like around Fort Walton / Destin.


Either way not a good trend IMO.
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ALhurricane
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#472 Postby ALhurricane » Thu Aug 25, 2005 11:06 pm

Here is a zoomed in SLP map for 84hrs

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

Between Destin and Panama City as just stated. GFS also deepens to 988 mb which is fairly significant deepening for the GFS.
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mtm4319
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#473 Postby mtm4319 » Thu Aug 25, 2005 11:07 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:It's hard to believe how much she is dipping south tonight..

Almost due south now....


I wouldn't go that far. Still WSW to SW.
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btangy
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#474 Postby btangy » Thu Aug 25, 2005 11:08 pm

I'm not sure how good the WRF is for TCs. But, both the 00Z WRF and NAM continue the WSW motion, but then sharply turn the storm to the N

The WRF has a 925mb low approaching the Big Bend of FL in about 96 hours:

http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/prod/rt/wrf/hur ... d.hr96.png

I'm still a bit skeptical the models are breaking down the ridge too quickly.
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Javlin
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#475 Postby Javlin » Thu Aug 25, 2005 11:10 pm

mtm4319 wrote:Is it just me, or do the Florida Keys magically appear on this NHC product on the last frame? lol.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
\


If you go throw the NHC's plots up just do not see it happening like believing the GFDL's right hook once off shore.Unless there is something with the friction of water that makes this occur.Too me the ridge is still pushing hard and will for awhile longer.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#476 Postby Scorpion » Thu Aug 25, 2005 11:11 pm

My god. I have a bad feeling about this one.
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CronkPSU
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#477 Postby CronkPSU » Thu Aug 25, 2005 11:12 pm

mtm4319 wrote:Is it just me, or do the Florida Keys magically appear on this NHC product on the last frame? lol.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html



HAHAHAHAHAHA!!! that is fantastic
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gatorcane
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#478 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 25, 2005 11:12 pm

should a special weather statement be issued for the lower FL Keys threat (particulary Key West)?
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Sanibel
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#479 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 25, 2005 11:12 pm

This movement now explains the bump into the ridge and jarring of the storm, recovery over the Gulf Stream, and now being driven southwest by the building ridge.

If this storm had come straight through the Straits under the Keys!!! :eek:
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CronkPSU
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#480 Postby CronkPSU » Thu Aug 25, 2005 11:14 pm

Javlin wrote:
mtm4319 wrote:Is it just me, or do the Florida Keys magically appear on this NHC product on the last frame? lol.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
\


If you go throw the NHC's plots up just do not see it happening like believing the GFDL's right hook once off shore.Unless there is something with the friction of water that makes this occur.Too me the ridge is still pushing hard and will for awhile longer.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


did you believe the GFDL's WSW movement last night that came true today? nearly none of us did
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