East Atl/African Waves,Sat Pics,Models Discussion Thread

[WeatherEmperor]

These might be dumb questions...But if We have an invest like we do now.....

1. How long before they start plotting model solutions?

Probably at 06z(2am EDT). They usually start plotting the first model run after it becomes an Invest(0z tropicals have already run)

I think I can make it up until 2am

<RICKY>

[Derecho]

These might be dumb questions...But if We have an invest like we do now.....

1. How long before they start plotting model solutions?

2. When will they perform a quickscat of the area to determine if there is an LLC?

QUIKSCATs aren't specifically scheduled or aimed; the satellite is in a polar orbit and covers the whole earth twice a day.

HOWEVER the swaths aren't wide enough to cover the whole earth, only about half near the equator, and they end up missing a lot, and at times the movement of a system matches up with the progression of the swaths so several will "miss" in a row.

[dwg71]

anybody got the link to the global models, I have it at work not at home. Its a gray page with the canadian, gfdl, gfs, nogaps and you can choose to animate each one.

Thanks in advance.

[wxmann_91]

anybody got the link to the global models, I have it at work not at home. Its a gray page with the canadian, gfdl, gfs, nogaps and you can choose to animate each one.

Thanks in advance.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//

[otowntiger]

According to those models this thing doesn't appear to be a threat to develop at all or if it does, it will become a weak fish! (Yawn.)

[WindRunner]

They don't ever seem to rapidly deepen any storm while in the middle of the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

SAT imagery

At the above site you can see updated images every 15 minutes.Also you can animate it.

The train continues to roll inside Africa.

[superfly]

While I know everyone is concentrating on Katrina, check out this monster wave inside Africa.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/mediterranean/sahara/ir/20050825.0330.msg1.ir.x.sahara_dust.x.jpg

[wxmann_91]

While I know everyone is concentrating on Katrina, check out this monster wave inside Africa.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/mediterranean/sahara/ir/20050825.0330.msg1.ir.x.sahara_dust.x.jpg

Yeah, saw it earlier today, but I don't think it'll become anything. Still at least a .1% chance of developing.

[ConvergenceZone]

While I know everyone is concentrating on Katrina, check out this monster wave inside Africa.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/mediterranean/sahara/ir/20050825.0330.msg1.ir.x.sahara_dust.x.jpg

Yeah, saw it earlier today, but I don't think it'll become anything. Still at least a .1% chance of developing.

Not sure how you can say it won't become anything this early. It stands just as much of a chance as any other strong wave coming off the coast. I"ve noticed something too, the waves coming off the coast are looking stronger and stronger as the days go by. True only about 1 out of 10 develop, but since there are so many marching off the coast, we'll be up to 10 in no time . We could be entering a time where we have 2 or 3 active systems at once.

[cycloneye]

Wave at the center of Africa has clearly a low with it.Wave that just emerged looks interesting too.And something also interesting around 40w as convection has increased there.So some things to watch in the comming days as we get closer to the peak of the season.

[Hyperstorm]

Whatever convection you see just west of 40W, is likely associated with the tropical wave that has spawned Invest 97L. The vigorous LLC has pulled up moisture from the ITCZ and is trying to wrap on the eastern side of the circulation.

The wave that just came off Africa is an interesting one and seems to have the characteristics of a system that will try to develop. If it stays where it is now, conditions are supporting of development. Even if it does not develop, we are surely seeing (since the middle part of August) stronger waves moving offshore and they will (sooner or later) spark a tropical cyclone. When... is the real question.

[cycloneye]

Whatever convection you see just west of 40W, is likely associated with the tropical wave that has spawned Invest 97L. The vigorous LLC has pulled up moisture from the ITCZ and is trying to wrap on the eastern side of the circulation.

The wave that just came off Africa is an interesting one and seems to have the characteristics of a system that will try to develop. If it stays where it is now, conditions are supporting of development. Even if it does not develop, we are surely seeing (since the middle part of August) stronger waves moving offshore and they will (sooner or later) spark a tropical cyclone. When... is the real question.

And Hyperstorm there is clearly a circulation with wave in central Africa.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If we get Lee before the early on the 29th we will have another record.

[gatorcane]

it's only Aug. 25th...peak is Sept 10th...it is going to be a long September, October for a home grown storm or two

[cjrciadt]

If we get Lee before the early on the 29th we will have another record.

I thought 97L would become Lee, but looks less organized.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
The storms spawned off by Katrina "could" form, plus more storms near S. America.

[Hyperstorm]

Actually, if we get to Lee before the 29th it will be a new record. 0000 29 August to be exact. That is by late Sunday.

Regarding the wave in central Africa... Yes, it seems to have a broad circulation as so many systems appear to have this time of the year. The question is...Will it hold itself as it moves west?

I've also been noticing something over the past week or so. The waves seem to be moving offshore at lower latitudes than they used to for the past month or so. This indicates that the waves will be moving south of the SAL (most of the time), which BTW, has weakened considerably over the past week or so (as expected for this time of year). This is due to the pattern change that I talked about earlier and how the Azores High plays a major role in regards to these outbreaks.

[Hyperstorm]

Does anyone remember the wave that I mentioned a few days ago off Africa near 15N? I was kind of surprised that after the wave showed signs of developing right off the coast, convection dissipated completely (inexplicably). The system has moved WSW over the past few days and tonight, convection has re-flared near the axis at 12N 35W and conditions appear favorable, so I think we have a new candidate for development over the next few days.

Not to mention that there is another wave just south of the CV islands, which has favorable conditions ahead of it.

Very interesting what's going on in the Eastern Atlantic this year...

For some reason, this year the FAR eastern Atlantic isn't providing good conditions for these systems to develop (so far). This is NOT good news for people living in the islands, which will have to deal with systems developing closer to them, if this trend continues.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I agree Hyperstorm. I think 97L becomes a hurricane in 48 hours ( maybe a little more) I said earlier this week that the LLC would survive and if it got to 40W it will become a TS. Maybe misjundged the speed a bit. Learned a lot from the pattern this year, especially tracking TD 10 and Irene. This could get VERY interesting in another week or so. We dont have as much shear in the W ATL now.

I am also concerned about the track. This is clearly a TD. and as such if it stays disorganized for 8 hours then begins to intensify, it will be near the 20/60 mark due to saying shallow and being sterred at lower levels I think it will have missed the weakness. Also, typically the late Aug troughs will be underdone by the global models. The ridge looks to be building to east of FL. Still one to watch for sure

[cycloneye]

Does anyone remember the wave that I mentioned a few days ago off Africa near 15N? I was kind of surprised that after the wave showed signs of developing right off the coast, convection dissipated completely (inexplicably). The system has moved WSW over the past few days and tonight, convection has re-flared near the axis at 12N 35W and conditions appear favorable, so I think we have a new candidate for development over the next few days.

Yes a ball of deep convection is over a low to mid level circulation at 35w.Yes that is what worries me the most being in Puerto Rico.A jeanne type system developing closer to the islands.I remember before Jeanne formed it was a wimpy wave but look what happened afterwards.