EXTREMELY weak nhc analysis

[jwayne]

my 7 year old could have done better than that. Weaken to 45 mph when obvious on radar it's more than holding it's own and only 3 hours to water?no discussion of impact of sw movement and possible west shift? Avila needs to get with it or get out.

[Ixolib]

Ruht Rooh....

[gatorcane]

no comment

[dwg71]

do not bash NHC, you come out looking bad most of the time. (and mods wont like it)

[mvtrucking]

Maybe they are just not sure. I expected more from them also.

[Brent]

Well... the NHC's nailing it streak has ended. The 50 mph prediction is just pathetic.

[wxman57]

I have to agree on the 45kt weakening by the NHC. I calculate that the center is now 25 miles from water moving at 8.5 kts toward the water. With only a little over 3 hours before it's back over water, I have a hard time believing it'll weaken to 45 kts. And the Everglades aren't exactly land.

[jkt21787]

do not bash NHC, you come out looking bad most of the time. (and mods wont like it)

Do you think this will re-emerge off the coast as a 50 mph TS? If you are looking at a radar loop, I'm sure the answer is no.

[NorthGaWeather]

do not bash NHC, you come out looking bad most of the time. (and mods wont like it)

So what, Avila wrote a weak discussion. Ray Charles could have done better.

[rtd2]

my 7 year old could have done better than that. Weaken to 45 mph when obvious on radar it's more than holding it's own and only 3 hours to water?no discussion of impact of sw movement and possible west shift? Avila needs to get with it or get out.

[gatorcane]

it looks better now than before it made landfall, does it not? Am I missing something here?

[Brent]

do not bash NHC, you come out looking bad most of the time. (and mods wont like it)

I have oceanfront property in Arizona if you believe that... the NHC deserves the criticism this time. Misses the SW motion, now wants this insane amount of weakening when it's still very well developed after being over land for 4 hours?

[krysof]

Horrible analysis, intensity horribly forecasted. The NHC of course continues being conservative probably not to scare anyone since it's causing devastation right now.

[Ixolib]

it looks better now than before it made landfall, does it not? Am I missing something here?

I've heard that "looks" can be deceiving. Perhaps the NHC sees something else???

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Take a look at the developing eye people. In this thing only has another 4 or 5 hours at max over land. This is weird for me but I'v got to go with what is going on. Also reports of 85 to 90 mph winds are still coming in. It has not weaken but just the opposite. If you don't believe me look at a radar.

[rtd2]

it looks better now than before it made landfall, does it not? Am I missing something here?

Your NOT missing anything the HP pressing down on it has Lifted slightly allowing the Outflow to kick off plus the Big Jog to the South has put alot of the Core over the Everglades and theres enough hot water in the glades to Keep the storm a cane till she reaches the Gomex.

[Acral]

Google news links are reporting "minimal" damage... that is not what I am hearing out of Miami/Hollywood/etc.

[Acral]

Google news links are reporting "minimal" damage... that is not what I am hearing out of Miami/Hollywood/etc.

[PerfectStorm]

an explosion once it hits the SW GOM. it looks like it is prepping to bomb out. i think we are in for some fireworks as the day progresses tomorrow. NHC did pretty well.

[NorthGaWeather]

my 7 year old could have done better than that. Weaken to 45 mph when obvious on radar it's more than holding it's own and only 3 hours to water?no discussion of impact of sw movement and possible west shift? Avila needs to get with it or get out.