Looks more like a southerly trend?

#21 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:17 pm

FYI -- I measure 245 degrees at 8.5 kts past two hours. At that speed/heading, the center will be offshore in 4 hours near 25.4-25.5N. Won't lose much intensity in just 4 hours over the Everglades. I do expect a Cat 3 at landfall in FL Panhandle now, maybe Cat 4.

#22 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:21 pm

looks like it is heading towards Florida Bay but it will probably pull up before then and exit farther west

#23 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:21 pm

looks like it is heading towards Florida Bay but it will probably pull up before then and exit farther west

LaBreeze · #24 Postby **LaBreeze** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:25 pm

I'm thinking the same way, sotabusterFL. By the way, welcome to the board.

#25 Postby **btangy** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:26 pm

A bit more consensus on the early track models. Will see if the global models concur.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png

#26 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:28 pm

Which of these models are the latest run?

#27 Postby **storms in NC** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:31 pm

Can't you hear the alligator now? :lol:

SotabusterFL · #28 Postby **SotabusterFL** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:31 pm

Thanks La. This board seems very interesting. I just think that this is setting up for the worst case senario of parelleling the west coast of FL and then making landfall in the Big Bend area

hicksta · #29 Postby **hicksta** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:33 pm

That seems wierd.. A cane going sw turn to NNW..AH!

SotabusterFL · #30 Postby **SotabusterFL** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:36 pm

No a hurricane moving WSW to W then turning NNE then N

#31 Postby **tailgater** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 10:03 pm

Take a look at this loop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
If you were just looking at this WV loop you would think she's gonna clip Cuba then the Yucatan on her way to Northern Mexico/Southern Texas.

LaBreeze · #32 Postby **LaBreeze** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 10:06 pm

You would think so tailgator, but she's probably going to do a slingshot back to the N and NE and make a second Florida visit.

#33 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 10:08 pm

It actually looks like the ridge is getting stronger right now. Look how far it's pushing into west Texas.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/wvrgnlloop.master.pl?us&type=wv

#34 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 10:09 pm

It actually looks like the ridge is getting stronger right now. Look how far it's pushing into west Texas.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/wvrgnlloop.master.pl?us&type=wv

#35 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 10:11 pm

skysummit wrote:It actually looks like the ridge is getting stronger right now. Look how far it's pushing into west Texas.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/wvrgnlloop.master.pl?us&type=wv

I doubt this is the ridge they're thinking about. They're actually talking about a gap between the ridge that's currently steering Katrina and the one that's over Texas and Louisiana. Supposedly the short-wave is going to drive a wedge between the two high pressure systems...and allow Katrina to move into that wedge.

#36 Postby **baygirl_1** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 10:16 pm

Based on this:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.html
... I only see one ridge, that seems very strong. It's been there for several days and really hasn't moved much at all. This ridge has been helping to trigger the strong thunderstorms we've been getting along the seabreeze line this week. It doesn't appear to be weakening or moving. Where is the trough/weakness they say is coming in to pull her north? I can't see to make that out.

LaBreeze · #37 Postby **LaBreeze** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 10:20 pm

The high pressure is going to move westerly and break down to allow her to move on up.

Looks more like a southerly trend?

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