Hurricane Katrina

[timeflow]

[ALhurricane]

According the the 5pm forecast, Katrina was not supposed to emerge into the GOM until 2pm Friday. At this rate, it will be off the coast at 2am...and much further south than forecast. I am very interested to see what the NHC does.

[Brent]

10:54pm and nothing... did the NHC lose power???

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...EYE OF KATRINA MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY WEST NORTHWARD...AND ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA
CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND TROPICAL STORM
WATCH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF JUPITER HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...
SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA OR 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE CITY OF
HOMESTEAD.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. KATRINA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA
IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED WHILE KATRINA IS OVER LAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 70 MILES. EARLIER THIS EVENING A WIND GUST TO 87 MPH WAS RECORDED
AT MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE/NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AND 81 MPH AT THE TAMIAMI AIRPORT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW SOUTH OF VENICE AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE SHOULD BEGIN
TO DECREASE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...25.5 N... 80.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM EDT AND 3 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
0300Z FRI AUG 26 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY WEST NORTHWARD...AND ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA
CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND TROPICAL STORM
WATCH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF JUPITER HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 80.7W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 80.7W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 80.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.4N 81.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 55NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.5N 83.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 26.0N 84.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 26.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 28.5N 85.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 31.5N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 37.0N 80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 80.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

[Hyperstorm]

They are likely coordinating for new information on this advisory.

I would think new Hurricane Warnings will be issued (a little too late?)...

[mtm4319]

11pm- 75mph just reported on the Weather Channel.

[Brent]

[dwg71]

no real change in path..

[cjrciadt]

Still a cane at 11pm advisory, very impressive for only a "Cat 1". Brace yourselfs GOMERS!!!!!!!!

[LAwxrgal]

Looks like from that map she's over Everglades.

[Derek Ortt]

this thing is not likely to go all the way down to 45KT, especially if it keeps moving SW

[gatorcane]

Where did the FL Keys suddenly have tornado warnings and flooding with tropical storm force winds? That is a DRASTIC change in my opinion. I hope the FL Keys residents are prepared..

[mtm4319]

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA OR 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE CITY OF HOMESTEAD.

Interesting. I think NHC might have actually overcompensated. The (quite evident) eye on radar is around 25.6, 80.8 by my estimates.

[greg_kfdm_tv]

I agree Derek.....radar presentation is actually looking better and it will reach the Gulf in only about 3 hours.

[Jim Cantore]

Down to 75mph at 11pm

[ALhurricane]

I will refrain from going off the deep end, but if this is just a tropical storm at 25.5N 83.0W then I have some ocean front property in Arizona. In addition, this has less than 4 hours on land and is going down to 45kts?...hmmmm....

[cycloneye]

TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

THE HURRICANE MADE LANDFALL ABOUT 630 PM EDT...2230Z EARLIER TODAY
NEAR THE BROWARD/MIAMI DADE COUNTY LINE. SINCE THEN...THE EYE
OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY WHERE THE CALM WAS EXPERIENCED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS...
FOLLOWED BY A SHARP INCREASE IN THE WINDS. THE MIAMI NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OFFICE MEASURED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 984.5 MB DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE EYE AND THE WINDS
QUICKLY INCREASED IN THE SOUTHEAST EYEWALL WITH A PEAK GUST OF 76
KNOTS. BECAUSE THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING OVER LAND...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 65 KNOTS. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...KATRINA IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AS
SUGGESTED BY ALL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS BRING KATRINA
TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. IN
FACT...THE ECMWF MODEL DROPS THE PRESSURE OF KATRINA IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO 961 MB. THIS IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR A GLOBAL MODEL.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 7
KNOTS...STEERED BY THE NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND A STRONG AND LARGE
MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF KATRINA. THIS
SOUTHWEST DIP HAS BEEN SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL SINCE YESTERDAY. THE
HIGH WHICH IS CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WESTWARD AND A TROUGH OR WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE KATRINA ON A
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT KATRINA WILL BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0300Z 25.5N 80.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 25.4N 81.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 25.5N 83.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 26.0N 84.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 26.5N 84.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 29/0000Z 28.5N 85.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 30/0000Z 31.5N 84.5W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 31/0000Z 37.0N 80.0W 25 KT...INLAND

[PTPatrick]

they forecast a TS this time tomorrow!? They rolled the forecast and smoked it!

[Coredesat]

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT KATRINA WILL BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.

Well there you go.