Thoughts about the track from my local met

[southerngale]

I hope I get this right. On the 6pm news, a local met here talked about the current projected path of Katrina and then offered these thoughts. He said that he's not totally sold on the ridge over northern Louisiana and Mississippi weakening and moving out as quickly to the west and that a more westerly track deeper into the Gulf than the NHC track seems quite possible. He said that the current wsw track of Katrina confirms to him that the high is still quite strong. This isn't a met who ever hypes anything and is generally conservative, so I did want to share his thoughts for those who might be interested. No, he didn't say it would/could come to Louisiana or Texas. He simply said what I posted above.

[vbhoutex]

I presume that is Greg, who of course is a member here. Have him come into the forum and address it. He knows what he is talking about, thinking about. He has some goo d points that are a possibility, but not necessarily a probability. I, for one, like to see all sides of a TC's possibilities. I am not convinced he is correct in his assumptions, but that type of scenario has been part of my thinking process.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well we definately know that she will emerge in the GOM well south of forecast. I say just south of Everglades City compared to Naples or a little futher north. What this means who knows, but it very well could have big implications on the future landfall#2 area next week. I was looking at the current forecast models and can not see how this next front is going to make it all the way down to north/central LA, MS, and Alabama. The high looks too strong and has not let up all week. BTW our forecast highs are supposd to reach the upper 90's through early next week with east to se winds.Does not sound like a weakening high to me, but who knows.

[Ixolib]

Well we definately know that she will emerge in the GOM well south of forecast. I say just south of Everglades City compared to Naples or a little futher north. What this means who knows, but it very well could have big implications on the future landfall#2 area next week. I was looking at the current forecast models and can not see how this next front is going to make it all the way down to north/central LA, MS, and Alabama. The high looks too strong and has not let up all week. BTW our forecast highs are supposd to reach the upper 90's through early next week with east to se winds.Does not sound like a weakening high to me, but who knows.

Well, somebody knows - and many in here keep telling us with winking eyes that the NHC is the one. But, I'm hopeful someone here on S2K can paint a layman's picture that shows entirely how it will unfold....

[bbadon]

The high pressure system looks quite strong. I didnt' see this thread Southern Gale. I was saying the same thing in the chat room a while ago. You definitely have to respect when Greg Bostwic talks.

[Brent]

I'll just say that this WSW motion is NOT showing me this is going to make a hard right into the Big Bend. I think it's time to give up on that one... This is Panhandle or farther west bound.

..and please don't tell me "I trust NHC ", I do, but it's obvious now.

[MGC]

Well, just the other day, the NHC had the storm making landfall around Cape Canaveral. I too believe the ridge over the central gulf states will hold. The trough don't look all that strong on the WV loops. I am thinking Katrina will landfall futher west than the NHC is currently forecasting and could be a major at the second landfall.....MGC

[dhweather]

If they say MOVING WEST at 10PM, I'm gonna scream.


It's almost SSW !!!!!!!!

[gatorcane]

wow! The NHC is way wrong on this track across FL....and other things...where is this HUGE rain event that they warned us for South FL...about the only places that got considerable rain was Miami-Dade and South Broward....Palm Beach gets more rain from a summer T storm

[greg_kfdm_tv]

I have the center near 26.6/80.7.....only about 30 nm from the Gulf. At this pace it will be offshore well before forecast.

[Brent]

If they say MOVING WEST at 10PM, I'm gonna scream.


It's almost SSW !!!!!!!!

We can scream together...

[FritzPaul]

wow! The NHC is way wrong on this track across FL....and other things...where is this HUGE rain event that they warned us for South FL...about the only places that got considerable rain was Miami-Dade and South Broward....Palm Beach gets more rain from a summer T storm

As Dr Lyons just said: The high to the north of Katrina is strong enough to cause the current WSW motion and help keep the stronger rainbands to the south of the eye.

[MGC]

And, well south of its forecast emergence point.....MGC

[fci]

wow! The NHC is way wrong on this track across FL....and other things...where is this HUGE rain event that they warned us for South FL...about the only places that got considerable rain was Miami-Dade and South Broward....Palm Beach gets more rain from a summer T storm

The jog to the SW took the rain event away from Palm Beach county.
But... the HUGE rain event is happening over Southern Dade County where training has occured and totals will be well over a foot!

We got LUCKY here in Palm Beach County, although we were due for a break!
Could have used some more rain though...

Became such a NON-EVENT for Palm Beach County that the local TV stations switched back to regular programming

[Air Force Met]

Well, just the other day, the NHC had the storm making landfall around Cape Canaveral. I too believe the ridge over the central gulf states will hold. The trough don't look all that strong on the WV loops. I am thinking Katrina will landfall futher west than the NHC is currently forecasting and could be a major at the second landfall.....MGC

That's incorrect. They've never had the storm landfalling north of the Palm Beach/Broward county line. The largest track error since the beginning (landfall point minus where they forecasted landfall...not timing) was only about 25 miles...and the first advisory was only 10 miles off.

[Ixolib]

Well, just the other day, the NHC had the storm making landfall around Cape Canaveral. I too believe the ridge over the central gulf states will hold. The trough don't look all that strong on the WV loops. I am thinking Katrina will landfall futher west than the NHC is currently forecasting and could be a major at the second landfall.....MGC

Hey, MGC - are you yet prepared to offer an opinion on how "far" west?? Are you speaking of further west on the panhandle?

[gatorcane]

Hurricane warnings for the lower FL Keys maybe looking at this SSW movement?

[mvtrucking]

I have the center near 26.6/80.7.....only about 30 nm from the Gulf. At this pace it will be offshore well before forecast.

That is a bit north of NHC position estimate 30 minutes ago. Has it moved up?

AT 10 PM EDT...0200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED
BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS INLAND OVER THE EVERGLADES ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
THE CITY OF HOMESTEAD FLORIDA.

[dhweather]

Hurricane warnings for the lower FL Keys maybe looking at this SSW movement?

I think that is appropriate at this point.

[LaBreeze]

Screamfest 2005!