Katrina a MAJOR HURRICANE NEXT LANDFALL?!

[AnthonyC]

Latest computer models indicate Katrina could be a major hurricane...category 3...with her next landfall. The SSTs are very warm and wind shear is almost nonexistant in the GOM. Ideal conditions for a developing TS/Hurricane. I predict winds of 105mph when she makes her second landfall. I won't try predicting the path because the past few hours it seems she been moving more southerly...this could indicate she will be over water for a longer period thus allowing more strengthening.

Anthony

[cjrciadt]

Latest computer models indicate Katrina could be a major hurricane...category 3...with her next landfall. The SSTs are very warm and wind shear is almost nonexistant in the GOM. Ideal conditions for a developing TS/Hurricane. I predict winds of 105mph when she makes her second landfall. I won't try predicting the path because the past few hours it seems she been moving more southerly...this could indicate she will be over water for a longer period thus allowing more strengthening.

Anthony

The GFDL has said 947 to 950mb (Cat 4) since Tuesday. I thought it was nuts, but maybe it is on target.

[skysummit]

Very...VERY...VERY LIKELY!

[milankovitch]

Latest computer models indicate Katrina could be a major hurricane...category 3...with her next landfall. The SSTs are very warm and wind shear is almost nonexistant in the GOM. Ideal conditions for a developing TS/Hurricane. I predict winds of 105mph when she makes her second landfall. I won't try predicting the path because the past few hours it seems she been moving more southerly...this could indicate she will be over water for a longer period thus allowing more strengthening.

Anthony

[wxmann_91]

OMG I would not want the GFNI to pan out...

[LSU2001]

OMG I would not want the GFNI to pan out...

me either cause the landfall for that model is NOLA
I really don't think that is going to happen though.
Tim

[Praxus]

With the ssts so high and the shear forecast to be so low, I'm not sure whats
to stop her from intensifying. I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit cat 4, especially with how well its maintaining its structure right now.

[skysummit]

OMG I would not want the GFNI to pan out...

me either cause the landfall for that model is NOLA
I really don't think that is going to happen though.
Tim

Geez! There's no way that can pan out like that! If so, we just better flip over the dome and fit as many people in it that we can so we can just float away.

[Anonymous]

The NHC is forecasting a strong cat 2 at 5pm

[cjrciadt]

The NHC is forecasting a strong cat 2 at 5pm

Look how leeway they give from the offical Cat 2 forecast. The GOM could easily make the higher margain seem very possible.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/205302.shtml?chart?large

[superfly]

OMG I would not want the GFNI to pan out...

me either cause the landfall for that model is NOLA
I really don't think that is going to happen though.
Tim

Of course it wouldn't happen, NOLA is immune to major hurricanes.

[btangy]

A couple things to watch for in terms of intensity:

Katrina will always be the the right of the upper level anticyclone sitting over the W/C Gulf. This will keep some light N shear over the cyclone. Also, the anticyclone may draw in some drier air over the SE toward the cyclone, so there may be some things inhibiting a straight out monster from developing. I do think a major hurricane is likely though given how well Katrina has kept together over FL because the same intensification we saw today (though not explosive by any means) should continue in the Gulf under the same general conditions.

[smashmode]

It might be a cat 4..but looking at all the projections..its heading for where it would impact the least amount of population..

[Ixolib]

A couple things to watch for in terms of intensity:

Katrina will always be the the right of the upper level anticyclone sitting over the W/C Gulf. This will keep some light N shear over the cyclone. Also, the anticyclone may draw in some drier air over the SE toward the cyclone, so there may be some things inhibiting a straight out monster from developing. I do think a major hurricane is likely though given how well Katrina has kept together over FL because the same intensification we saw today (though not explosive by any means) should continue in the Gulf under the same general conditions.

Good points, but where might the dry air come from? The whole GOM looks pretty moist to me, and the driest air I see is way back over AZ. Of course, there are plenty who read the WV much better than I.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/wvrgnlloop.master.pl?us&type=wv

[FritzPaul]

OMG I would not want the GFNI to pan out...

me either cause the landfall for that model is NOLA
I really don't think that is going to happen though.
Tim

Of course it wouldn't happen, NOLA is immune to major hurricanes.

I respectively think your logic is wrong about NO & major canes.

I think that it appears that way only because of statistics.

There are a lot more TS and Cat.1 storms that have had the chance to threaten NO.

Since there are a lot fewer major canes, the statistics go down for a NO hit.

Example: 100 TS's enter the GOM. Thats 100 chances for a hit.
If half of those attain cat.1 strength, then there's 50 chances for a hit. Then, say half of those turn into major canes then the chances drop to 25.

PS I'm no Don Sullivan therefore I don't pretend to know the actual stats on what percentage of storms turn major. The above example is just meant to show how stats can be misleading. Anyway I hope you see my point.

[superfly]

I respectively think your logic is wrong about NO & major canes.

I think that it appears that way only because of statistics.

There are a lot more TS and Cat.1 storms that have had the chance to threaten NO.

Since there are a lot fewer major canes, the statistics go down for a NO hit.

Example: 100 TS's enter the GOM. Thats 100 chances for a hit.
If half of those attain cat.1 strength, then there's 50 chances for a hit. Then, say half of those turn into major canes then the chances drop to 25.

PS I'm no Don Sullivan therefore I don't pretend to know the actual stats on what percentage of storms turn major. The above example is just meant to show how stats can be misleading. Anyway I hope you see my point.

Andrew Jackson's victory in the Battle of New Orleans erected a spiritual barrier against major hurricanes landfalling in New Orleans.

[btangy]

Good points, but where might the dry air come from?

Unfortunately, WV imagery only detects water vapor in the upper levels of the troposphere and WV in general is very poorly observed over the open ocean.

Let me point you to the skew-T/log-P diagram from 0Z from Tallahassee:



Using skew-Ts is a bit of a lost art IMO, especially with all these satellite products now in operation. It you're not familiar with how to read one of these, the red line is the temp profile and the green line is the specific humidity or mixing ratio (which is an absolute quantity of water vapor, vs. relative humidity). Note how the mixing ratio drops very sharply above 500mb indiciative of dry air in the middle troposphere. Also note how the wind barbs are northerly above 400mb. That northerly flow could advect that dry air into the Gulf where it can adversely impact Katrina. Just something to look out for in the coming days.[/img]

[HurricaneBill]

I respectively think your logic is wrong about NO & major canes.

I think that it appears that way only because of statistics.

There are a lot more TS and Cat.1 storms that have had the chance to threaten NO.

Since there are a lot fewer major canes, the statistics go down for a NO hit.

Example: 100 TS's enter the GOM. Thats 100 chances for a hit.
If half of those attain cat.1 strength, then there's 50 chances for a hit. Then, say half of those turn into major canes then the chances drop to 25.

PS I'm no Don Sullivan therefore I don't pretend to know the actual stats on what percentage of storms turn major. The above example is just meant to show how stats can be misleading. Anyway I hope you see my point.

Andrew Jackson's victory in the Battle of New Orleans erected a spiritual barrier against major hurricanes landfalling in New Orleans.

Somebody forgot to tell Hurricane Betsy that in 1965.

[BayouVenteux]

I respectively think your logic is wrong about NO & major canes.

I think that it appears that way only because of statistics.

There are a lot more TS and Cat.1 storms that have had the chance to threaten NO.

Since there are a lot fewer major canes, the statistics go down for a NO hit.

Example: 100 TS's enter the GOM. Thats 100 chances for a hit.
If half of those attain cat.1 strength, then there's 50 chances for a hit. Then, say half of those turn into major canes then the chances drop to 25.

PS I'm no Don Sullivan therefore I don't pretend to know the actual stats on what percentage of storms turn major. The above example is just meant to show how stats can be misleading. Anyway I hope you see my point.

Andrew Jackson's victory in the Battle of New Orleans erected a spiritual barrier against major hurricanes landfalling in New Orleans.

Somebody forgot to tell Hurricane Betsy that in 1965.

Actually, I believe the inception of the New Orleans Saints football franchise in 1966 erected the barrier to which you refer. One more reason we need to slavishly obey Mr. Benson's demands and give the man whatever he want$!

[superfly]

Andrew Jackson's victory in the Battle of New Orleans erected a spiritual barrier against major hurricanes landfalling in New Orleans.

Somebody forgot to tell Hurricane Betsy that in 1965.

Betsy was diverted to the west by the barrier.