Fickle Models Jump East Again...

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #1 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:24 pm

Very Odd Behavior by models I don't know how to interpret it!
Why the flipflops help I'm confused:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

Rainband · #2 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:26 pm

Time will tell. I am still sticking to my big bend landfall. :wink:

Acral · #3 Postby **Acral** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:28 pm

Simple. Katrina is drunk. I still think that many of the models are pushing too far east.

AL Chili Pepper · #4 Postby **AL Chili Pepper** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:34 pm

UKMet seems very unlikely, with the others coming into agreement....not to mention the NHC track is tucked in there among them. Looks more and more like it's going to be Panama City/Apalachicola for 2nd landfall.

#5 Postby **deltadog03** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:37 pm

none of the models have a clue right now....and they won't

Rainband · #6 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:38 pm

deltadog03 wrote:none of the models have a clue right now....and they won't

Can you explain in detail?? thanks :wink:

BamaMan · #7 Postby **BamaMan** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:40 pm

Not to argue AL, but I think its way to early to talk about the models coming into agreement. I do not think (IMHO) that until Katrina has re-entered the gulf and has been there for at least 12-24 hours will the models really be able to get a good read on exactly where she will go. I stated yesterday afternoon that until Sat AM, or maybe a bit later we will all feel like we are watching a tennis match (east-west-east-west) fopr awhile.

dwg71 · #8 Postby **dwg71** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:47 pm

Models have been saying through southern end of florida, then reemerge from the gulf and then landfall in the panhandle for a couple of days now. THey will shift left and right, but they havent changed their outcome much.

Trust the NHC.

BamaMan · #9 Postby **BamaMan** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 8:02 pm

I agree DWG, but the GFDL, the model that they have not seemed to put much creedence into until starting to mention it more often today is not looking quite as far off as it did originally. Yes they have remained fairly constant with their second landfall, but not at any time have their forecast tracks indicated a WSW to possibly full tilt SW move at this point, and she will also be re-emerging into the Gulf much sooner than anticipated which seems to make me believe that any poleward movement may well be at the same time they thought, but with Katrina being further south and west, making the 2nd landfall just the same.

rightbayou · #10 Postby **rightbayou** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 8:06 pm

Latest GFDL puts her landfall near MS/AL border, missed the previous run- is this a jump west? :?:

beachbum_al · #11 Postby **beachbum_al** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 8:07 pm

Drunk! I guess Katrina has been drinking way too much warm salt water today.

I don't know to be on the alarm or just watch it. Right now we might or we might not. This morning the news seem more on the thought that it was going toward the bend of Florida. Tonight they are not acting so sure.

mahicks · #12 Postby **mahicks** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 8:11 pm

rightbayou wrote:Latest GFDL puts her landfall near MS/AL border, missed the previous run- is this a jump west?

which run was that?? here is the latest run

AL Chili Pepper · #13 Postby **AL Chili Pepper** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 8:18 pm

rightbayou wrote:Latest GFDL puts her landfall near MS/AL border, missed the previous run- is this a jump west?

There was a big shift in the GFDL earlier, but the latest run has it back over in the eastern FL Panhandle area.

I agree BamaMan, it wouldn't surprise me at all to wake up in the morning to find the models moving back east or west again. I'll feel a lot more confident if the next 2 runs don't dance around so much.

ameriwx2003 · #14 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:01 pm

The Models are having a tough time figuring out the Trough set-up in the Midwest /Ohio valley and thats why the Flip-floping in my opinion:):)

#15 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 9:03 pm

The trough that's supposed to dig down is still way up near Montana tonight. Will this really reach far enough south to create a weakness and pull her up? Only a few days will tell.