Hurricane Katrina

[ALhurricane]

Katrina has definitely taken a left hand turn this evening... a WSW to SW motion at this time. This does two things...

1. Katrina won't be over land near as long as forecast therefore it will not weaken as much.

2. It gives the western models more credence.

It will be interesting to see what NHC does at 11pm.

[cycloneye]

TPNT KGWC 252352
A. HURRICANE KATRINA (TWELVE)
B. 25/2331Z (73)
C. 25.8N/5
D. 80.2W/0
E. THREE/GOES12
F. T4./4.0/D1.0/24HRS -25/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

22A/ PBO SML CDO/ANMTN. CDO MEASURES 75NM IN DIA. CNTR MOVG
ONSHR VCNTY MIA FL ATTM. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.20 USING THE LOG10
SPIRAL GIVING A DT OF 4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT...MET AGREES...
BUT PT YIELDS A 3.5.

AODT: T5.6 (CLR EYE)

LAURENTI

[CYCLONE MIKE]

ALhurricane, as long as it goes on this wsw/sw track how much further do you see her making a more westward track in the GOM. Also if she stays a little more south than forecast will that have an impact about how sharp the north turn is. Just wondering if the trough will have as much impact as expected.

[Rainband]

looks west?? to me?? according to the reports..hmm

[FlSteel]

seems like that wacky run of the GFDL last night might have been onto something. Just had the landfall a little too far south but had the track tendency right.

FPL will be working OT tonight and for many weeks in the near future. Got to keep those guys in our thoughts and prayers. Many of them will suffer damage yet will be on the job restoring power.

[btangy]

Most definitely... a farther WSW track makes a sharp turn to the N less likely. If you look at the layer mean wind analysis from CIMSS:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

You can clearly see the TC is positioned on the SE side of this anticyclone and is responsible for the slightly S of W motion. Anytime you have a hurricane with any southerly component of motion, common sense says there's a pretty strong ridge to the north. I'm a bit skeptical at how fast some of the models break down the ridge.

[Agua]

00Z BAMs & GFDL back east. They'll flop many more times before landfall.

[NorthGaWeather]

looks west?? to me?? according to the reports..hmm

Clear WSW motion right now. Perhaps a wobble or maybe it isn't.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE KATRINA (AL122005) ON 20050826 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050826 0000 050826 1200 050827 0000 050827 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.9N 80.3W 25.5N 81.7W 25.2N 83.0W 25.1N 84.1W
BAMM 25.9N 80.3W 25.9N 81.6W 25.8N 82.9W 25.8N 84.1W
A98E 25.9N 80.3W 25.8N 81.5W 25.6N 82.3W 25.7N 82.7W
LBAR 25.9N 80.3W 25.7N 81.8W 25.5N 83.4W 25.5N 85.1W
SHIP 65KTS 74KTS 81KTS 88KTS
DSHP 65KTS 46KTS 55KTS 61KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050828 0000 050829 0000 050830 0000 050831 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.3N 85.2W 26.8N 86.3W 30.0N 84.3W 33.2N 78.0W
BAMM 26.0N 85.2W 27.1N 86.9W 29.3N 86.1W 31.8N 81.4W
A98E 25.9N 82.8W 26.8N 83.5W 28.0N 82.4W 32.0N 78.0W
LBAR 25.7N 86.9W 27.1N 89.8W 29.8N 90.3W 33.2N 87.0W
SHIP 94KTS 103KTS 101KTS 89KTS
DSHP 68KTS 76KTS 39KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.9N LONCUR = 80.3W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 26.2N LONM12 = 79.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 25.9N LONM24 = 77.6W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 985MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 130NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 60NM


00:00z Models

[Seele]

looks west?? to me?? according to the reports..hmm

Still looks SW or WSW to me. Ignore the dry slot (orange line). The center looks to be the area just N of the reds on radar (red line).

[Thunder44]

Remember the Ships doesn't take into account the storm moving over land. It doesn't weaken it moving over South Florida tonight.

[krysof]

Katrina is now completely inland-well the center that is, and it's looking pretty good. Those living in the panhandle may be in relief because once a storm makes landfall it completely weakens, but we will be hearing about Katrina for several days to come. In fact, this is just the beginning. Chapter 2 Katrina makes landfall. The next chapter in its life will be : Chapter 3 Over the gulf, Katrina bombs and prepares for another landfall

[Astro_man92]

This may be a dumb question but

Question: I've been outside for the past hour or so and I was wondering when did katrina reach max intensity before it started to weaken over land? or is it still strengthening?

[Praxus]

Miami cbs news just reported an 18 wheeler blown over. Wonder how much of a wind that takes !

[Brent]

This may be a dumb question but

Question: I've been outside for the past hour or so and I was wondering when did katrina reach max intensity before it started to weaken over land? or is it still strengthening?

Right as it made landfall... the 7pm advisory increased the winds to 80 mph and the center was just ashore.

[Astro_man92]

Miami cbs news just reported an 18 wheeler blown over. Wonder how much of a wind that takes !

well it doesn't have any wind resistance from the side (it is praticly a wall) so it would take more than 40 lesss that 75

[FritzPaul]

Miami cbs news just reported an 18 wheeler blown over. Wonder how much of a wind that takes !

Don't forget landfalling hurricanes spawn short lived tornados, but 80mph sustained could flip a truck if the wind hit the truck just right.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...KATRINA RELENTLESSLY POUNDING SOUTH FLORIDA...CALM OF THE LARGE
EYE EXPERIENCED AT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY WEST NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY
SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH
OF JUPITER INLET TO VERO BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY AND FOR THE
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 9 PM EDT...0100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST. THIS POSITION IS
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.

KATRINA IS MOVING SOUTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE KATRINA SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND ALONG SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISING BUILDINGS.
A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE EVERGLADES TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB... 29.06 INCHES. THE
MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE JUST MEASURED A
PRESSURE OF 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL POINT.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 9 PM EDT POSITION...25.8 N... 80.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA



I am surprised that still is a hurricane being well inland.

[Coredesat]

Looks like Katrina is maintaining her strength:

[Brent]

WOW... no weakening yet.