Katrina forecast #3: An event for Florida

[Josephine96]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
HURRICANE KATRINA
NJN WEATHER CENTER
635 PM THURS AUG 25TH 2005

Hurricane Katrina grew in size and strength today and is about to make landfall around the Ft. Lauderdale area. Max winds should be around 75 mph at landfall. Katrina's eastern side is loaded with nice rain bands and decent outflow, but her west side appears virtually naked on radar with not much rain and storms at all.

South Floridians should be bracing for hurricane force winds along the immediate coast and some hurricane gusts possibly inland. The storm will also spread a lot of rain and maybe some gusty winds across Central Florida, especially Osceola, Southern Brevard, Okechobee, Martin and Indian River Counties.

Katrina is forecast to hit Florida 2x. The 2nd landfall is still uncertain. 1 model has her making a quick jerk back to the NE after barely making it into the GOM. Other models take her further into the GOM and then possibly effecting the Panhandle as a strong Category 1.

Katrina's impacts will be felt across the state, possibly through the weekend. She is currently moving only 6 mph. This means she'll dump tremendous rains after the winds die down.

The impacts in Central Florida will be rain, wind and maybe some severe weather as the tornado threat will increase tomorrow due to high temps. forecast in the mid to upper 80's. Brevard and Osceola County will see the bad stuff 1st, while the rest of Central Florida will most likely see Katrina's effects after she gets into the GOM and paralells the state on her way to a Panhandle landfall.

Our call for 2nd landfall will be somewhere around the coast near Tallahassee. This may be a little too far east, but we may revise it. Katrina should also regain hurricane status and become a Cat 1 by 2nd landfall.

Here's my experimental 5 day forecast on Katrina.

Tonight: Making landfall, slow trek across south Florida. max winds: 75 mph
Friday: Weakening over land. Should move into GOM by late afternoon, early evening. max winds: 60 mph
Saturday: Beginning to paralell the state. Watching nervously from Tampa northward. Max winds: 75 mph
Sunday: Approaching the panhandle. Max winds: 85 mph
Monday: 2nd landfall late Sunday.. well west of Cedar Key. Max winds: 55 mph {well inland}

[Josephine96]

comments are welcomed as always

[rockyman]

Hey!

Why do you forecast only moderate intensification? Do you see less than favorable conditions along your forecast track? Also, any comments on the idea that hurricanes rarely hit the area where your forecasting landfall? Thanks for the forecast!

[jkt21787]

I won't agree or disagree with your track since there is still much model uncertaintity.

However do disagree with intensity. NHC even forecasting a 2 now before landfall and higher can't be ruled out as it traverses over the gulf. Looks very favorable.

[Josephine96]

Well..

I'm being conservative.. I know the waters are extremely HOT in the GOM right now.. so this thing will probably blow up some..

But we don't even know what the track will be.. It could barely make out into the GOM and then jerk to the right for all we know..

We shall see..