Katrina Missing her forecast points to the south??

mahicks · #1 Postby **mahicks** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 6:33 pm

Looks like Kat is missin her forecast points...Looks to be tracking a little more south than expected?

If this is correct, what kind of impact will this have for second landfall??

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

WindRunner · #2 Postby **WindRunner** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 6:35 pm

WESTWARD HO!

#3 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 6:38 pm

she is...put on the forecast points and turn on radar and its obvious

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#4 Postby **mvtrucking** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 6:44 pm

ivanhater wrote:she is...put on the forecast points and turn on radar and its obvious

I don't think its an illusion either. Maybe WSW?

Rainband · #5 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 6:51 pm

westward bound Gfdl has shifted east. Interesting :wink:

#6 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 6:52 pm

And there the forecast models go...

LEFT-RIGHT-LEFT RIGHT LEFT

TheBurn · #7 Postby **TheBurn** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 6:58 pm

ivanhater wrote:she is...put on the forecast points and turn on radar and its obvious

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Winds though, show the 'low' center a tad north of the visible center.
Does that even make sense?

#8 Postby **deltadog03** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:08 pm

i wouldn't put much stock in the gfdl right now...it clearly did NOT move south of the mainland did it?

Website · #9 Postby **Brent** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:12 pm

deltadog03 wrote:i wouldn't put much stock in the gfdl right now...it clearly did NOT move south of the mainland did it?

and showed a powerful major hurricane doing that...

spinfan4eva · #10 Postby **spinfan4eva** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:18 pm

Local met said the farther south, the farther SOUTH the landfall will be like maybe the peninsula could get the 2nd landfall cause some models are showing a pretty sharp right turn.

However, IMHO, the further south it moves, the more chance it has of missing the trough and he should have been indicating Louisiana or even South on the other side of the gulf (tx).

#11 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:21 pm

deltadog03 wrote:i wouldn't put much stock in the gfdl right now...it clearly did NOT move south of the mainland did it?

No, but the GFDL's solution cannot be ignored either. Although it overemphasized the more Southward track and intensity, moslty due to it being over closer to water the 12z track is verifying somewhat with the wsw track Katrina is now on. If Katrina does not start this more wnw turn then the NHC track will shift west in the panhandle.

mahicks · #12 Postby **mahicks** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:22 pm

Brent wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:i wouldn't put much stock in the gfdl right now...it clearly did NOT move south of the mainland did it?

and showed a powerful major hurricane doing that...

Umm...New 23z plot shows the GFDL has gotten over it's crack addiction and has a plot thats almost identical to the NHC's 5pm advisory forecast track.

rockyman · #13 Postby **rockyman** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:23 pm

deltadog03 wrote:i wouldn't put much stock in the gfdl right now...it clearly did NOT move south of the mainland did it?

No...but it clearly had, and continues to have, a distinct southerly component...while the official NHC forecast called for a slightly northerly component at landfall...

Rainband · #14 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:25 pm

#15 Postby **Mattie** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:25 pm

With the current course, what is the estimated time frame for Katrina to cross the peninsula and either jump with all barrels into the gulf or hang on the coast line?

mahicks · #16 Postby **mahicks** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:31 pm

Rainband wrote:sigh

why the sigh?

mtm4319 · #17 Postby **mtm4319** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:34 pm

Mattie wrote:With the current course, what is the estimated time frame for Katrina to cross the peninsula and either jump with all barrels into the gulf or hang on the coast line?

Depending on the track from here, it's 75-90 miles east of the western Florida Gulf coast. Due west track: about 90 miles. WSW track: about 75 miles. So if it's moving at 5mph, it would be 15-18 hours before it re-emerged over water. At 8mph, it would take about 9-12 hours.

mahicks · #18 Postby **mahicks** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:45 pm

mtm4319 wrote:
Mattie wrote:With the current course, what is the estimated time frame for Katrina to cross the peninsula and either jump with all barrels into the gulf or hang on the coast line?

Depending on the track from here, it's 75-90 miles east of the western Florida Gulf coast. Due west track: about 90 miles. WSW track: about 75 miles. So if it's moving at 5mph, it would be 15-18 hours before it re-emerged over water. At 8mph, it would take about 9-12 hours.

Anyone know the current speed of the storm??

rockyman · #19 Postby **rockyman** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:48 pm

The western extent of the CDO has already reached the Gulf of Mexico...so the CDO will never be completely over land...won't this keep the storm from weakening as much? The official NHC forecast has the center over land until about 2pm tomorrow...I just don't see this system taking that long to cross into the Gulf.

#20 Postby **deltadog03** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:49 pm

yeah, the gfdl is close...i don't think the models have a clue what is going to happen...and it looks to have sped up too

Katrina Missing her forecast points to the south??

Katrina Missing her forecast points to the south??

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