NHC Track??

[gk1]

My personal opinion is that Katrina will move more westward after existing the Florida Coast. The NHC prediction for the second landfall may be close eventually, but she will go much more westward in the GOM which will allow for additional strenghtening. My reasons:

1. Katrina will move faster than they are projecting (remember-1st landfall was to be Friday AM). This will allow her to move more westward before feeling any effects of any troughs.

2. The storm is moving south of west, which will also allow it to move further into the GOM.

3. The upper level winds would have to change quickly over the SE for this storm to make a radical north turn. They are moving from the NE to SW.

4. The upper-level disturbance that is suppose to turn Kat, is still at least three days from affecting it.


After all that said, the NHC has been "dead on" this year. Maybe we should stick with them.

[GTStorm]

Didn't the same thing happen w/ Frances and Jeanne last year - the eventual "turn to the north" after crossing the peninsula kept getting pushed further and further west with each successive model run?

[Brent]

Looks like she's already going south of the NHC and she's only inland by a few miles.

[Rainband]

I am sure IF this is true you will hear it from the NHC. Until then it's speculation They have been point on this year and yet there will always be critics

[WindRunner]

5pm to 7pm advisory movement is practically due SW, actually pointing a little south of Miami right now. Yeah, sure, it could be a wobble, but it is definately indicative of a more S of W movement.

[gk1]

Watch Out!! The second storm strike may shift westward and may be Cat 2 or 3 at landfall!! Jim Cantore just said that Katrina was the strongest Cat 1 he has been in...and he has been in quite a few.

[Brent]

I am sure IF this is true you will hear it from the NHC. Until then it's speculation They have been point on this year and yet there will always be critics

You can plot the points... it's a little south of the NHC track. Not a big deal, but it is.

[Rainband]

Watch Out!! The second storm strike may shift westward and may be Cat 2 or 3 at landfall!! Jim Cantore just said that Katrina was the strongest Cat 1 he has been in...and he has been in quite a few.

You don't have a location in your profile, where are you located??

[gk1]

Near Houma, LA.

[Rainband]

Near Houma, LA.

Gotcha

[dhweather]

She looks to be moving SW in this:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[MetroMike]

Yes DHweather she's moving south of west, even thought the official NHC statement does not indicate that happening.

[MetroMike]

Ok they do indicate this motion as Ijust got the breaking news.

[gatorcane]

It's clearly moving WSW or even SW....how can they say it's moving W is beyond me? Just look where it was 6 hours ago and look at where the eye is now and they say it is moving W...?

[SkeetoBite]

Looks to be following the first plot of the UKMET:

[Frank P]

per the NHC' s latest discussion...

...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/5. 12Z AND 18Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF Katrina HAS CHANGED LITTLE WHILE AN INVERTED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO Katrina. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A SLIGHT SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

In my opinion it will be well out into the GOM in 12 hours or so at its present speed as indicated on radar....

[mahicks]

per the NHC' s latest discussion...

...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/5. 12Z AND 18Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF Katrina HAS CHANGED LITTLE WHILE AN INVERTED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO Katrina. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A SLIGHT SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

In my opinion it will be well out into the GOM in 12 hours or so at its present speed as indicated on radar....

this being said...are you saying that the NHC expected this? That is the way I read it, even though it seems to be a little more that "slightly" south of due west.