Hurricane Katrina

[Frank2]

I'm not there for Katrina, since I decided to evacuate to Sebring, about 140 miles north of the area.

I was going to stay at home in Broward County, but, the radar loop didn't look good at all late this morning (especially when the center made that SW jog), and left for my "second home".

Fortunately, I had my evacuation plan ready and was packed and ready to go at 11:30 this morning.

Driving up here I thought about the entire experience, and, for those who do not live in the region, they might or might not understand just how stressful it is to do this not once, but 4 times in the past 12 months. I love weather (else I wouldn't have worked at NOAA for so long), and have lived here for most of my life, and know the possible dangers of living on the southern peninsula, but, at moments like this the entire idea is straining, at best.

Lord willing, tomorrow morning I'll have to call home to check to see if the power is on (I use my answering machine as an indicator) - if not, I must decide whether to remain here at the hotel or go home and sweat it out for an unknown amount of time.

Living on the road is great, perhaps, but when you're an evacuee, it's about as stressful as a person could bear.

Though a Christian, I must admit my faith is weak at times, and at moments like this I find myself lacking in courage to do the right thing.

Well, I hope the above can give some insight on what it really means to deal with a situation like this, and why some of us tend to be hopeful that something will not come our way!

Sincerely,

Frank

[cycloneye]

WTNT52 KNHC 251945
TCEAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

AT 4 PM EDT...2000Z... THE CENTER OF RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE
KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED BY NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA... AS
WELL NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 26.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST... OR ABOUT 25 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 25 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOCA
RATON FLORIDA.

FORECASTER STEWART

[canetracker]

3 P EST report states the location was: "ABOUT 35 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 35 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA."
Now the 4P EST has the location about 25 miles away from above listed locations.
Looks like the forward speed is picking up some. It moved "about" 10 miles in an hour.

[wxwatcher91]

cloud tops are warming over Florida in the latest IR frame...

[Brent]

HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
2100Z THU AUG 25 2005

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM
JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
BEEN COMPLETED.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY WEST NORTHWARD. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA
CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO VERO BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
...BIMINI...AND THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THIS
WARNING MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE... INCLUDING ALL OF
MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 79.9W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 79.9W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 79.6W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.1N 80.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.1N 81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 26.4N 82.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 27.0N 83.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.5N 85.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 31.5N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 35.0N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 79.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART

[Brent]

Double

[wxwatcher91]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KFLL.html

Fort Lauderdale at 3:53pm edt reported pressure at 998.2mb and winds gusting to 39mph...

[dhweather]

Galveston and Port Arthur on the list - looks like they are shifting back west a bit on the path


<pre>
HURRICANE KATRINA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

26.1N 81.7W 49 X X X 49 VENICE FL 32 1 X X 33
26.4N 82.8W 28 1 1 X 30 TAMPA FL 23 2 1 1 27
27.0N 83.7W 10 10 2 1 23 CEDAR KEY FL 5 9 4 3 21
MUHA 230N 824W 1 2 X 1 4 ST MARKS FL X 2 6 8 16
MYGF 266N 787W 99 X X X 99 APALACHICOLA FL X 1 6 9 16
MARATHON FL 23 1 X X 24 PANAMA CITY FL X X 4 10 14
MIAMI FL 99 X X X 99 PENSACOLA FL X X 1 10 11
W PALM BEACH FL 99 X X X 99 MOBILE AL X X X 9 9
FT PIERCE FL 58 X X X 58 GULFPORT MS X X X 8 8
COCOA BEACH FL 30 X X X 30 BURAS LA X X X 8 8
DAYTONA BEACH FL 13 4 2 2 21 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 7 7
JACKSONVILLE FL 1 7 4 5 17 NEW IBERIA LA X X X 4 4
SAVANNAH GA X 1 3 7 11 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 2 2
CHARLESTON SC X X 2 6 8 GALVESTON TX X X X 2 2
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 5 5 GULF 29N 85W X 3 7 7 17
WILMINGTON NC X X X 3 3 GULF 29N 87W X X 3 10 13
MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 89W X X 1 9 10
KEY WEST FL 17 1 X 1 19 GULF 28N 91W X X X 6 6
MARCO ISLAND FL 47 X X X 47 GULF 28N 93W X X X 3 3
FT MYERS FL 46 X X X 46

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT
C FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT
D FROM 2PM SAT TO 2PM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


$$
</pre>

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...STRENGTHENING HURRICANE KATRINA BEARING DOWN ON THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF FLORIDA...
...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR FLORIDA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM
JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
BEEN COMPLETED.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY WEST NORTHWARD. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA
CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO VERO BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
...BIMINI...AND THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THIS
WARNING MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE... INCLUDING ALL OF
MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 25 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER SHOULD MOVE INLAND ALONG SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST LATER THIS EVENING.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND THE MIAMI NOAA
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
75 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED
AFTERWARDS AS KATRINA MOVES INLAND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
EVERGLADES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A GUST TO 64 MPH WAS
REPORTED AT BOCA RATON. DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND
NOAA DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS
ARE MOVING ONSHORE THE COASTAL AREAS OF PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE ALSO
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. STORM SURGE
VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...26.1 N... 79.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM EDT AND 9 PM EDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Stormcenter]

The NHC did not change their track much at 5pm which is not surprising at all. If later model runs continue to show a more westward shift as they are now then they may shift it westward later tonight or tomorrow.

[dhweather]

18Z looks more west

<img src="http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_12.gif">

[cycloneye]

[Ivanhater]

well nhc is way east of the models now.....im sure they are playing it safe and want to wait to shift their track, they have plenty of time to change the track before 2nd landfall

[Stormcenter]

Where is the 5pm discussion? It makes you wonder why they are taking so long. It could be good.

[Brent]

HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

KATRINA IS NOW A HURRICANE BASED ON NOAA RECON SFMR REPORTS OF
SURFACE WINDS TO 64 KT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THESE WINDS
ARE SUPPORTED BY NOAA-MIAMI DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES OF 90 KT AT
3000 FT...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 67 KT SURFACE WINDS. THE MOST
RECENT NOAA RECON PRESSURE WHILE COMPOSING THIS DISCUSSION HAS
FALLEN 2 MB IN THE PAST HOUR TO 985 MB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/5. 12Z AND 18Z UPPER-AIR DATA
INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KATRINA HAS CHANGED
LITTLE WHILE AN INVERTED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED
NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO KATRINA. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO INDUCE A SLIGHT SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
OR SO. AFTERWARDS...THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND ERODE ON THE WEST SIDE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS SLOW EVOLVING PATTERN IS FOECAST TO GRADUALLY INDUCE A SLOW
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 48 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT
36 HOURS...BUT THEN DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT. THE GFS HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT/PERSISTENT MODEL IN TAKING KATRINA SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA...WHEREAS THE
GFDL...GFDN...AND UKMET MODELS HAVE NOW FLIP-FLOPPED WIDELY TO THE
WEST AND BRING KATRINA INLAND BETWEEN MOBILE ALABAMA AND GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA. THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS HAVE BEEN GIVEN LESS WEIGHT
GIVEN THEIR PERSISTENT MUCH FASTER WESTWARD MOTION THE PAST 24
HOURS...WHICH HAS NOT MATERIALIZED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE NHC MODEL
CONSENSUS.

THERE IS STILL A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR KATRINA TO
STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 70 KT BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. AFTER LANDFALL
...STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE HURRICANE EMERGES OFF THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST IN ABOUT 30 HOURS. ONCE KATRINA MOVES OVER
THE WARM GULF OF MEXICO WHERE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW...RESTRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE SEEMS LIKELY. IT SHOULD BE
EMPHASIZED THAT KATRINA IS NOT FORECAST TO WEAKEN PRIOR TO LANDFALL
...WHICH COULD BE IMPLIED BY THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. IN
CONTRAST...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO 90 KT BEFORE
LANDFALL OCCURS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL AND THE TREND IN THE GFDL MODEL...
ALTHOUGH THE LATTER MODEL MAKES KATRINA A 118-KT CATEGORY 4 STORM.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 26.1N 79.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 26.1N 80.7W 45 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 26/1800Z 26.1N 81.7W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 27/0600Z 26.4N 82.8W 50 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 27/1800Z 27.0N 83.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 28.5N 85.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 31.5N 84.5W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 30/1800Z 35.0N 81.5W 25 KT...INLAND

[southerngale]

Indeed, CBS4 is very good for this kind of information.

Link, please?

http://www.cbs4.com/

He's on MSNBC now saying the same thing...

Thanks!

[Stormcenter]

The 5pm discussion is out. It's funny how the NHC will rely on some models for certain storms and for others ignore them all together.
I hope they don't burned on this one by ignoring the westward trend of the models as they seem to be doing. But they may change their tune this time tomorrow if she keeps on moving westward. Who knows she may still go up the Fl. west coast and out into the Atl. as the GFS was showing yesterday.

Katrina is now a hurricane based on NOAA recon SFMR reports of
surface winds to 64 kt just northwest of the center. These winds
are supported by NOAA-Miami Doppler radar velocities of 90 kt at
3000 ft...which equates to about 67 kt surface winds. The most
recent NOAA recon pressure while composing this discussion has
fallen 2 mb in the past hour to 985 mb.
The initial motion estimate is 265/5. 12z and 18z upper-air data
indicate the subtropical ridge to the north of Katrina has changed
little while an inverted mid- to upper-level trough has developed
northward from the Caribbean Sea to Katrina. The trough is expected
to induce a slight south of due west motion for the next 12 hours
or so. Afterwards...the ridge to the north is expected to slowly
weaken and erode on the west side as a shortwave trough over the
central U.S. Digs southeastward toward the northern Gulf of Mexico.
This slow evolving pattern is foecast to gradually induce a slow
northwest and then northward motion after 48 hours. The NHC model
guidance is in good agreement on the westward motion for the next
36 hours...but then diverges significantly after that. The GFS has
been the most consistent/persistent model in taking Katrina slowly
northeastward after 72 hours across northwest Florida...whereas the
GFDL...GFDN...and UKMET models have now flip-flopped widely to the
west and bring Katrina inland between Mobile Alabama and Grand Isle
Louisiana. The GFDL and GFDN models have been given less weight
given their persistent much faster westward motion the past 24
hours...which has not materialized. The official forecast track is
similar to the previous track and is to the right of the NHC model
consensus.There is still a short window of opportunity for Katrina to
strengthen to around 70 kt before landfall occurs. After landfall
...Steady weakening is expected until the hurricane emerges off the
southwest Florida coast in about 30 hours. Once Katrina moves over
the warm Gulf of Mexico where the vertical shear is expected to be
low...restrengthening into a hurricane seems likely. It should be
emphasized that Katrina is not forecast to weaken prior to landfall
...Which could be implied by the official intensity forecast. In
contrast...Katrina is expected to strengthen to 90 kt before
landfall occurs in the Florida Panhandle. This is consistent with
the SHIPS intensity model and the trend in the GFDL model...
although the latter model makes Katrina a 118-kt category 4 storm.

Forecaster Stewart
Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 25/2100z 26.1n 79.9w 65 kt
12hr VT 26/0600z 26.1n 80.7w 45 kt...inland
24hr VT 26/1800z 26.1n 81.7w 40 kt...inland
36hr VT 27/0600z 26.4n 82.8w 50 kt...over water
48hr VT 27/1800z 27.0n 83.7w 60 kt
72hr VT 28/1800z 28.5n 85.0w 80 kt
96hr VT 29/1800z 31.5n 84.5w 40 kt...inland
120hr VT 30/1800z 35.0n 81.5w 25 kt...inland

[Sanibel]

Possible slow down?

[LilNoles2005]

Storm... those models haven't been thrown out, just given "less weight", and the NHC gives good reasoning why. It sure makes sense to me.

Also, one run of the models flopping westward does not equate a trend.

[Stormcenter]

Possible slow down?

Not yet in my opionion but she is moving WSW.