Are the models showing a more west track now?

#21 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:54 pm

The track has to change further west now...probably near Pensacola I say.

#22 Postby **storms in NC** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:55 pm

You need to wait till it go into the gulf. Then NHC will have a better handle on things. But right now is a guess.

tallywx · #23 Postby **tallywx** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:57 pm

Why should we buy this output any more than the previous one? Just this morning, folks were complaining that the NHC was too far west with their track, and that the storm would curve back into the FL peninsula. Now, we're proclaiming that the NHC will need to shift westward. Considering that the models are windsheld-wipering back and forth, the current NHC track seems to be a good median...for now. Let's wait for some consistency first.

eolian · #24 Postby **eolian** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:02 pm

Just an observation but this more westward track gives the storm more time over that "HOT" GOM water...

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #25 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:05 pm

But on the other hand. This storm doe's not have the most organized central core. In which 24 to 36 hours over land is going to do great damage to the cyclone. I expect a very weak tropical storm when it moves back out maybe a depression. Then it will take at least 12 to 24 hours to get its act together.

That is just a option...This is not a Dennis/Charley was had a very powreful central core. In which could pull its self together.

#26 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:06 pm

tallywx wrote:Why should we buy this output any more than the previous one? Just this morning, folks were complaining that the NHC was too far west with their track, and that the storm would curve back into the FL peninsula. Now, we're proclaiming that the NHC will need to shift westward. Considering that the models are windsheld-wipering back and forth, the current NHC track seems to be a good median...for now. Let's wait for some consistency first.

Good post.

tallywx · #27 Postby **tallywx** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:13 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:But on the other hand. This storm doe's not have the most organized central core. In which 24 to 36 hours over land is going to do great damage to the cyclone. I expect a very weak tropical storm when it moves back out maybe a depression. Then it will take at least 12 to 24 hours to get its act together.

That is just a option...This is not a Dennis/Charley was had a very powreful central core. In which could pull its self together.

How quickly did Hurricane Erin in 1995 traverse the FL peninsula? Because it was able to get its act together pretty quickly over N Gulf waters, making landfall the 2nd time as a cat 2 with the best inner-core structure of its entire lifespan.

Website · #28 Postby **Brent** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:15 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:But on the other hand. This storm doe's not have the most organized central core. In which 24 to 36 hours over land is going to do great damage to the cyclone. I expect a very weak tropical storm when it moves back out maybe a depression. Then it will take at least 12 to 24 hours to get its act together.

That is just a option...This is not a Dennis/Charley was had a very powreful central core. In which could pull its self together.

The farther west it goes... the longer it has over water. Don't discount anything yet.

#29 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:17 pm

tallywx wrote:Why should we buy this output any more than the previous one? Just this morning, folks were complaining that the NHC was too far west with their track, and that the storm would curve back into the FL peninsula. Now, we're proclaiming that the NHC will need to shift westward. Considering that the models are windsheld-wipering back and forth, the current NHC track seems to be a good median...for now. Let's wait for some consistency first.

Yea, you're correct Tally. It'll probably be shifting back and forth 15 more times.

southerngale · #30 Postby **southerngale** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:19 pm

skysummit wrote:
tallywx wrote:Why should we buy this output any more than the previous one? Just this morning, folks were complaining that the NHC was too far west with their track, and that the storm would curve back into the FL peninsula. Now, we're proclaiming that the NHC will need to shift westward. Considering that the models are windsheld-wipering back and forth, the current NHC track seems to be a good median...for now. Let's wait for some consistency first.

Yea, you're correct Tally. It'll probably be shifting back and forth 15 more times.

stormie_skies · #31 Postby **stormie_skies** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:20 pm

#32 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:21 pm

That's hilarious! :lol:

#33 Postby **MSRobi911** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:25 pm

SG you never cease to amaze me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Mary

AL Chili Pepper · #34 Postby **AL Chili Pepper** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:25 pm

tallywx wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:But on the other hand. This storm doe's not have the most organized central core. In which 24 to 36 hours over land is going to do great damage to the cyclone. I expect a very weak tropical storm when it moves back out maybe a depression. Then it will take at least 12 to 24 hours to get its act together.

That is just a option...This is not a Dennis/Charley was had a very powreful central core. In which could pull its self together.

How quickly did Hurricane Erin in 1995 traverse the FL peninsula? Because it was able to get its act together pretty quickly over N Gulf waters, making landfall the 2nd time as a cat 2 with the best inner-core structure of its entire lifespan.

Erin spent about half a day over the Peninsula. When it emerged over the Northern Gulf, it was like pouring gas on a fire. The convection just exploded.

Website · #35 Postby **Brent** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:34 pm

southerngale wrote:

Did those belong to John Kerry? :lol:

rockyman · #36 Postby **rockyman** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:39 pm

Brent wrote:
southerngale wrote:

Did those belong to John Kerry?

Let's not go there...I'd hate to have to publish my own picture of his opponent's footwear (complete with attached teeth and tongue)

LaBreeze · #37 Postby **LaBreeze** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:55 pm

Have you all seen the temps of the GOM off of the LA coast? Good thing Katrina's not headed our way. :eek:

#38 Postby **EmeraldCoast1** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:58 pm

Looks like Katrina will be taking I-75 to Naples then take the GOMer ferry to a destination TBD.

Obviously it will be a wait-n-see weekend for many of us on GOM. Just hope it never gets more intense than a cat. 1. for whoever gets her.

Astro_man92 · #39 Postby **Astro_man92** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 2:59 pm

Question: Does anyone really think that Katrina will curve up as early as the NWS says she will?

Honestly I don't

Indystorm · #40 Postby **Indystorm** » Thu Aug 25, 2005 3:00 pm

I read somewhere that strong hurricanes tend to have their inner core dynamics disrupted by land moreso than weaker hurricanes in the formative stages. I am concerned that Katrina will enter the Gulf with a much better chance of major strengthening with the more westward course before turning north and that her internal dynamics will not be disrupted that much by her traverse over Florida.

Are the models showing a more west track now?

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