Are the models showing a more west track now?

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N2Storms
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Are the models showing a more west track now?

#1 Postby N2Storms » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:11 pm

I'm strictly an amateur but it appears that the 1200OZ models are now showing a more westward trend...maybe I'm looking at old models...if someone has the latest models please give us the latest ...
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#2 Postby darinh » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:16 pm

Man o man. Check out the 18Z run on the UKMET model. You want to talk about a change. That is a HUGE swing to the west. It is now further west than the GFDL. The GFDL has been the western most outlier all week
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Re: Are the models showing a more west track now?

#3 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:16 pm

N2Storms wrote:I'm strictly an amateur but it appears that the 1200OZ models are now showing a more westward trend...maybe I'm looking at old models...if someone has the latest models please give us the latest ...


I think they are but no one has posted the graphics yet.
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#4 Postby mtm4319 » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:17 pm

Image

Definitely a west shift.
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#5 Postby darinh » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:18 pm

That model jumped 2 states to the left
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Re: Are the models showing a more west track now?

#6 Postby jdray » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:19 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
N2Storms wrote:I'm strictly an amateur but it appears that the 1200OZ models are now showing a more westward trend...maybe I'm looking at old models...if someone has the latest models please give us the latest ...


I think they are but no one has posted the graphics yet.


Consensus still seems to be Apalachicola - Big Bend area.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png
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#7 Postby dwg71 » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:19 pm

darinh wrote:That model jumped 2 states to the left


In more ways than one AL is hardly a state... :lol:
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#8 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:20 pm

mtm4319 wrote:Image

Definitely a west shift.


Thanks for posting.

All I can say is hmmmmmmm. :roll:
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#9 Postby dhweather » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:20 pm

WINDSHIELD WIPERS!!!!! :lol:
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jax

#10 Postby jax » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:22 pm

:eek:
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#11 Postby manofsteele79 » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:30 pm

New models from weather underground.....

Image
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#12 Postby Agua » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:32 pm

They'll flop around a half dozen more times before landfall is made.
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#13 Postby Rocketman » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:32 pm

dhweather wrote:WINDSHIELD WIPERS!!!!! :lol:


or RAIN-X!!!

:)
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#14 Postby darinh » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:32 pm

Almost all the model on their 18Z run are making a rather large shift to the west. IMO, no later than the 11PM advisory, we will see a NHC shift to the left as well. All the models, are showing a close proximity of the same track once Katrina show up the in GOM. Take a look at the S2K home page. The model runs have been updated.
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#15 Postby frederic79 » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:36 pm

Oops... just called and cancelled "just in case" hotel reservations 2 hours ago. One things for sure - if Katrina follows the GDFL or NOGAPS, that's alot of hot, liquid real estate to transverse.
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#16 Postby BamaMan » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:42 pm

Those 3 to the West are far too close for comfort :eek:
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#17 Postby skysummit » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:43 pm

BamaMan wrote:Those 3 to the West are far too close for comfort :eek:


No joke Bama...I would be getting concerned if I was in the Pen/Mob area.
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#18 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:44 pm

:eek: :eek: :eek:
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#19 Postby Nimbus » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:46 pm

Google news has linked a local Florida forecast that is calling for a central Florida landfall?

http://www.local6.com/news/4895987/detail.html

The ridge axis hasn't started to move east yet so there will be some big track changes down the road.
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#20 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:52 pm

Nimbus wrote:Google news has linked a local Florida forecast that is calling for a central Florida landfall?

http://www.local6.com/news/4895987/detail.html

The ridge axis hasn't started to move east yet so there will be some big track changes down the road.


In which direction will the track changes be? I know it shouldn't be east based on the latest model outputs.
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