Anybody want to take a stab at rainfall totals?

[Steve]

The NHC mentioned earlier today the potential for serious precipitation in the Bahamas and Southern Florida. I read in one of the advisories where the extreme could be 15-20" (NW Bahamas?).

I think it's a tough call on any region in Southern FL partly due forward speed & motion variances with the computer models. In particular, the GFS (which has been off the consensus for several runs) as of 00Z August 25, has Katrina crossing the FL/GA border on the 30th (next Tuesday?) after spending a week's vacation in Florida. I don't see this run of the GFS verifying, but if it did, that would seem to signal at least 1-5" a day across much of the Peninsula for the next week or so. The 60 hour totals haven't fed into the ftp site yet, so here's the sea level pressure loop that shows the low pressure.

MSLP 00z Loop

Any thoughts on rainfall?

Steve

[jeff]

Rainfall amounts will be excessive given the slow forward motion and expected track. Potential is there for 10-15 inches over a wide area of S and C FL with isolated amounts upwards of 20 inches. Expected track over the Gulf of Mexico will keep most of S and C FL on the moist side of things through the weekend with the threat of S to N training feeder bands.

[cjrciadt]

Not me this time. Last year when Frances stopped, estimates were flying into lunacy here in Central FL. With 18 inches in 3 day estimates, the real rainfall was 4 inches in 72 hours.

[jdray]

Not me this time. Last year when Frances stopped, estimates were flying into lunacy here in Central FL. With 18 inches in 3 day estimates, the real rainfall was 4 inches in 72 hours.

And NorthEast Florida got more than that from Frances.

Rainfall is extremely hard to forecast. The only thing that can be assured is that whoever is generaly on the east and north sides will get more than the south and west sides.