J. Bartardi

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gk1
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J. Bartardi

#1 Postby gk1 » Thu Aug 25, 2005 11:38 am

What is he saying about Kat this Morning??
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Agua
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#2 Postby Agua » Thu Aug 25, 2005 11:49 am

He has it exiting into the Gulf, skirting he West Coast of FL offshore, then recurving NE across the FL Penninsula north of Tampa.
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#3 Postby caneman » Thu Aug 25, 2005 12:02 pm

Agua wrote:He has it exiting into the Gulf, skirting he West Coast of FL offshore, then recurving NE across the FL Penninsula north of Tampa.


How strong near Tampa?
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#4 Postby N2Storms » Thu Aug 25, 2005 12:04 pm

He has it exiting into the Gulf, skirting he West Coast of FL offshore, then recurving NE across the FL Penninsula north of Tampa.



It seems with each passing hour the solutions shift a little further east...given the fact that the NHC will not make drastic adjustments from one advisory to the next, it seems that more and more the general consensus is that Katrina will barely make it into the GOMEX and sharply recurve as Per Joe B's forecast...that will be great news for us here in the Panhandle and points west...
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#5 Postby storms in NC » Thu Aug 25, 2005 12:08 pm

N2Storms wrote:He has it exiting into the Gulf, skirting he West Coast of FL offshore, then recurving NE across the FL Penninsula north of Tampa.



It seems with each passing hour the solutions shift a little further east...given the fact that the NHC will not make drastic adjustments from one advisory to the next, it seems that more and more the general consensus is that Katrina will barely make it into the GOMEX and sharply recurve as Per Joe B's forecast...that will be great news for us here in the Panhandle and points west...


My question is if it gets back over to the atlantic and with the wam waters here. What would it do? Fire back up?
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#6 Postby rainstorm » Thu Aug 25, 2005 12:09 pm

that also means it wont be too strong. once it turns north, its just a rain maker
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#7 Postby Liberty30 » Thu Aug 25, 2005 12:09 pm

N2Storms wrote:It seems with each passing hour the solutions shift a little further east...given the fact that the NHC will not make drastic adjustments from one advisory to the next, it seems that more and more the general consensus is that Katrina will barely make it into the GOMEX and sharply recurve as Per Joe B's forecast...that will be great news for us here in the Panhandle and points west...


But unfortunately bad news for the highly developed west coast of FL. With a track close to the coast, the Naples-Clearwater area is susceptible to a lot of damage, even from a very weak storm.
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#8 Postby rainstorm » Thu Aug 25, 2005 12:11 pm

storms in NC wrote:
N2Storms wrote:He has it exiting into the Gulf, skirting he West Coast of FL offshore, then recurving NE across the FL Penninsula north of Tampa.



It seems with each passing hour the solutions shift a little further east...given the fact that the NHC will not make drastic adjustments from one advisory to the next, it seems that more and more the general consensus is that Katrina will barely make it into the GOMEX and sharply recurve as Per Joe B's forecast...that will be great news for us here in the Panhandle and points west...


My question is if it gets back over to the atlantic and with the wam waters here. What would it do? Fire back up?


doubtful. it would be over land quite a while, as its just crawling along. plus, conditions to its north are not good.
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caneman

#9 Postby caneman » Thu Aug 25, 2005 12:11 pm

Liberty30 wrote:
N2Storms wrote:It seems with each passing hour the solutions shift a little further east...given the fact that the NHC will not make drastic adjustments from one advisory to the next, it seems that more and more the general consensus is that Katrina will barely make it into the GOMEX and sharply recurve as Per Joe B's forecast...that will be great news for us here in the Panhandle and points west...


But unfortunately bad news for the highly developed west coast of FL. With a track close to the coast, the Naples-Clearwater area is susceptible to a lot of damage, even from a very weak storm.


And also get double dipped with rain. First from the Northern Part and then from the Eastern part of the storm.
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#10 Postby StormsAhead » Thu Aug 25, 2005 12:13 pm

storms in NC wrote:
N2Storms wrote:He has it exiting into the Gulf, skirting he West Coast of FL offshore, then recurving NE across the FL Penninsula north of Tampa.



It seems with each passing hour the solutions shift a little further east...given the fact that the NHC will not make drastic adjustments from one advisory to the next, it seems that more and more the general consensus is that Katrina will barely make it into the GOMEX and sharply recurve as Per Joe B's forecast...that will be great news for us here in the Panhandle and points west...


My question is if it gets back over to the atlantic and with the wam waters here. What would it do? Fire back up?


JB's forecast actually has the storm coming back out over the Atlantic and strengthening to 60 knots by Thursday.
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#11 Postby Steve » Thu Aug 25, 2005 12:32 pm

>>J. Bartardi

:D

Nice one.

Steve
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#12 Postby FlSteel » Thu Aug 25, 2005 12:39 pm

Just my opinion but for the storm to hug the west coast of FL all the way up the coast is not a very good scenario. The rainfall event would be disasterous. I admit it would limit the amount of wind damage but flooding would become a big issue.
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#13 Postby Cookiely » Thu Aug 25, 2005 12:46 pm

FlSteel wrote:Just my opinion but for the storm to hug the west coast of FL all the way up the coast is not a very good scenario. The rainfall event would be disasterous. I admit it would limit the amount of wind damage but flooding would become a big issue.

Is it supposed to speed up after it gets into the Atlantic? If not I agree this could be a significant flood problem.
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#14 Postby Marilyn » Thu Aug 25, 2005 12:46 pm

StormsAhead wrote:
storms in NC wrote:
N2Storms wrote:He has it exiting into the Gulf, skirting he West Coast of FL offshore, then recurving NE across the FL Penninsula north of Tampa.



It seems with each passing hour the solutions shift a little further east...given the fact that the NHC will not make drastic adjustments from one advisory to the next, it seems that more and more the general consensus is that Katrina will barely make it into the GOMEX and sharply recurve as Per Joe B's forecast...that will be great news for us here in the Panhandle and points west...


My question is if it gets back over to the atlantic and with the wam waters here. What would it do? Fire back up?


JB's forecast actually has the storm coming back out over the Atlantic and strengthening to 60 knots by Thursday.
Then Where does he have it go?
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#15 Postby FlSteel » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:00 pm

The last update from the NHC has it over the gulf for about 2 days before making landfall again on the panhandle. Can't see JB's forcast so I don't know if he thinks if it will speed up once it makes it's northward move.
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#16 Postby Derecho » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:15 pm

N2Storms wrote:He has it exiting into the Gulf, skirting he West Coast of FL offshore, then recurving NE across the FL Penninsula north of Tampa.



It seems with each passing hour the solutions shift a little further east...given the fact that the NHC will not make drastic adjustments from one advisory to the next, it seems that more and more the general consensus is that Katrina will barely make it into the GOMEX and sharply recurve as Per Joe B's forecast...that will be great news for us here in the Panhandle and points west...



Actually the models that matter have just shifted west.
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#17 Postby dwg71 » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:17 pm

Derecho wrote:
N2Storms wrote:He has it exiting into the Gulf, skirting he West Coast of FL offshore, then recurving NE across the FL Penninsula north of Tampa.



It seems with each passing hour the solutions shift a little further east...given the fact that the NHC will not make drastic adjustments from one advisory to the next, it seems that more and more the general consensus is that Katrina will barely make it into the GOMEX and sharply recurve as Per Joe B's forecast...that will be great news for us here in the Panhandle and points west...



Actually the models that matter have just shifted west.


The models that matter, are the ones that are correct. The GFDL has had it missing Fl completly in latest runs and has it still headingn to extreme south Fl.
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caneman

#18 Postby caneman » Thu Aug 25, 2005 1:22 pm

dwg71 wrote:
Derecho wrote:
N2Storms wrote:He has it exiting into the Gulf, skirting he West Coast of FL offshore, then recurving NE across the FL Penninsula north of Tampa.



It seems with each passing hour the solutions shift a little further east...given the fact that the NHC will not make drastic adjustments from one advisory to the next, it seems that more and more the general consensus is that Katrina will barely make it into the GOMEX and sharply recurve as Per Joe B's forecast...that will be great news for us here in the Panhandle and points west...



Actually the models that matter have just shifted west.


The models that matter, are the ones that are correct. The GFDL has had it missing Fl completly in latest runs and has it still headingn to extreme south Fl.


Agreed and with a weakened system the BAMM amd BAMD may just play out. Wait and see. GFDL has been wrong so far so that leaves the UKMET and it just swung wildly so who is to say it won't do it again. I'll stick with the NHC
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