Dr. Neil Frank & Katrina

[jasons2k]

This is right off the TPC's site:
The historical data indicate the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the outer uncertainty area about 60-70% of the time. There is also uncertainty in the NHC intensity forecasts. The intensity forecast chart and table below provide intensity forecast and intensity forecast uncertainty information.

Meaning there is a 30% chance that a storm will move outside the forecast cone.

My quibble with Neil has been that when on the air, he will go 100% with the TPC line. Off air he has questioned many of the their judgment calls.

Maybe he just got tongue-tied and got it backwards last night.

I have a question about your quibble though - Isn't that in fact what mets are supposed to do? If you go against NHC in public that's very controversial. I don't understand the issue with 'toeing the line' while on-air. What about all the flack AccuWX catches for offering a 2nd opinion? And all the disclaimers "always follow NHC guidelines" etc.

[Mac]

This is right off the TPC's site:
The historical data indicate the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the outer uncertainty area about 60-70% of the time. There is also uncertainty in the NHC intensity forecasts. The intensity forecast chart and table below provide intensity forecast and intensity forecast uncertainty information.

Meaning there is a 30% chance that a storm will move outside the forecast cone.

My quibble with Neil has been that when on the air, he will go 100% with the TPC line. Off air he has questioned many of the their judgment calls.

Maybe he just got tongue-tied and got it backwards last night.

I have a question about your quibble though - Isn't that in fact what mets are supposed to do? If you go against NHC in public that's very controversial. I don't understand the issue with 'toeing the line' while on-air. What about all the flack AccuWX catches for offering a 2nd opinion? And all the disclaimers "always follow NHC guidelines" etc.

Agreed. I think his intent matters a lot. If he's officially backing the NHC forecast and he is doing so to prevent the public from being confused, then I think one could say he is acting responsibly. However, if he is merely backing the NHC forecast to avoid sticking his neck out and risking his professional reputation, then that would be irresponsible, IMHO.

Unfortunately, only Neil and God probably know what his true intentions are.

[stormcloud]

Re: Maybe he just got tongue-tied and got it backwards last night.

One more comment and I'll let it be. When producers start yappin' in his ear to "wrap, wrap, warp!" it does fluster him sometimes (flusters me too.) It's very frustrating to know you still have a thousands things to say and only a few seconds to say them in.

[Air Force Met]

Re: Maybe he just got tongue-tied and got it backwards last night.

One more comment and I'll let it be. When producers start yappin' in his ear to "wrap, wrap, warp!" it does fluster him sometimes (flusters me too.) It's very frustrating to know you still have a thousands things to say and only a few seconds to say them in.

I understand that. I usually have 4 or 5 slides and 1-2 minutes to give a 4 star all the info he needs...and then I am expected to sit down and be quiet.