GUTS IN with Katrina - August 25, 2005

[dhweather]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Gulf of Mexico Tropical Summary - GUTS IN on August 25, 2005

<img src="http://www.diamondheadweather.com/guts20050825.jpg">

The tropical wave in the BOC is moving inland and will not develop.

The strong ridge over the SE US does seem to be moving a bit westward,
which is what most of the model guidance picks up on causing the
dramatic turn north in the forecast by some of the models.

The ULL that was near Katrina has moved off into the central GOM and
will not be a factor in Katrina's intensity or path.

Katrina will very likely become a hurricane before making landfall
along the East Coast of Florida. RESIDENTS SHOULD LISTEN TO THEIR
LOCAL OFFICIALS AND THE NHC FOR OFFICIAL GUIDANCE AND
ACTIONS THEY SHOULD TAKE IN PREPARATION FOR KATRINA.

As for my forecast, I'm still not sold on the dramatic turn north that some
models are forecasting. There's still many variables to come into play
before Katrina enters the GOM this weekend. The million dollar question
is how far West does Katrina go before beginning to turn north, and how sharp will that turn be.

Right now, I believe that Katrina will move almost due west across Florida,
landfalling as a cat 1 with an outside shot as a cat 2 (mark 1). Katrina will
exit Florida as a weak TS and enter the extremely warm GOM (mark 2).

By the time Katrina gets to mark 3, she should return as a category 1
hurricane. Landfall will most likely be east of the Mouth of the Mississippi
early next week. I suspect Katrina's second landfall will be as a cat 1 or cat 2 hurricane.

[Stormcenter]

I can easily buy into that track. Good post.

[vbhoutex]

I have to differ with you just a little here David. You show only one high when in fact there are two. The one you show is retrograding, or is supposed to retrograde West and the one to its East(not shown maybe because the center is out of this picture) is expected to stay put but have the Western periphery eroded by the shortwaves moving along the trough to its North. I have to agree though that I am not totally sold on the hard right turn yet, but am definitely leaning that way.

[seaswing]

Just curious...most of the models suggest a more north- north east turn. Do you think this storm will stall and miss the front and then move more west?

[dhweather]

I have to differ with you just a little here David. You show only one high when in fact there are two. The one you show is retrograding, or is supposed to retrograde West and the one to its East(not shown maybe because the center is out of this picture) is expected to stay put but have the Western periphery eroded by the shortwaves moving along the trough to its North. I have to agree though that I am not totally sold on the hard right turn yet, but am definitely leaning that way.

I thought about using the NW Atlantic frame to try and illustrate that,
but it doesn't encompass the entire GOM very nicely. You are correct,
there will be a "gap" between the subtropical ridge over the atlantic
and the ridge moving off to the West. That's where the "weakness"
will be. The upper level dynamics aren't so clear to me right now for how
much energy will move through the area as shortwaves. Timing will
be everything with this (isn't it always?)

[vbhoutex]

I have to differ with you just a little here David. You show only one high when in fact there are two. The one you show is retrograding, or is supposed to retrograde West and the one to its East(not shown maybe because the center is out of this picture) is expected to stay put but have the Western periphery eroded by the shortwaves moving along the trough to its North. I have to agree though that I am not totally sold on the hard right turn yet, but am definitely leaning that way.

I thought about using the NW Atlantic frame to try and illustrate that,
but it doesn't encompass the entire GOM very nicely. You are correct,
there will be a "gap" between the subtropical ridge over the atlantic
and the ridge moving off to the West. That's where the "weakness"
will be. The upper level dynamics aren't so clear to me right now for how
much energy will move through the area as shortwaves. Timing will
be everything with this (isn't it always?)

EXACTLY!!!

[dhweather]

Just curious...most of the models suggest a more north- north east turn. Do you think this storm will stall and miss the front and then move more west?

I believe the path will be determined by two things:

1) How much and how quickly the ridge in this frame moves west

2) How strong with the troughs/impules be

It's hard to say at this point. I moved right from yesterday's GUTS
update, but as I mentioned, I'm not sold on this hard turn right.