Dr. Neil Frank & Katrina

[jasons2k]

I caught Dr. Neil Frank last night and he said there is a lot of uncertainty with Katrina's fate once in the GOM.

He said the ridge was expected to retreat west, opening up a "channel" for Katrina to turn to the north. But, he said, the ridge could hold in place, keeping Katrina on a westerly path, 'causing a problem for us here in SE TX'. With it being a few days away, it's too early to know for sure.

Than at the end talking to the anchors, he basically said continued hot, but he'll be watching the tropics to see if we might have to deal with a TS or Hurricane next week.

Dunno how much of the end was sincere and how much was scripted just to keep us watching, but that was his last tidbit.

[BamaMan]

Hmmm, Interesting. Dr. Frank is definitely one to listen to. Knows what he is talking about

[Roxy]

Good info, I missed Dr. Neil last night, but if I am going to listen to anyone it'd be him.

Thanks for sharing.

[mikey mike]

Dr.Frank is probably talking about all this.Take a look:


http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/o ... ATLCIR.GIF

[Roxy]

Dr.Frank is probably talking about all this.Take a look:


http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/o ... ATLCIR.GIF

Wow, what a great picture. Absolutely amazing.

[Air Force Met]

Hmmm, Interesting. Dr. Frank is definitely one to listen to. Knows what he is talking about

He's hyping. There is no way Dr. Frank believes that this is a SE TX threat. He did the same thing during Lili. She was forecast to turn...was turning as scheduled...adn the turn started that morning and he said (on the 6pm broadcast) to stay tuned because it's forecast to turn into LA, but it hasn't made the turn yet and is still headed right towards us...which at that time it was turning and headed right towards the western LA coast (Lake Charles area) and was continuing to recurve.

A met buddy of mine called immediately (because he happened to be listening to the broadcast)..screaming. I told him I heard the same thing.

Bottom line...either Dr. Frank had not looked at any data...including the 4pm advisory and satellite pictures since the morning (which I find hard to beleive) or he was hyping the storm to keep people tuned to channel 11...prbably at the request of the producers. Some of you in Houston might remember this incident.

I lost a lot of respect for him that day...and this is coming from a person who idolized him (kinda nerdy...I know) in high school and actually came dressed as Dr. Frank during a Chem. III assignment...which was to come dressed as a famous scientist and give a presentation like they would give.

[Stormcenter]

Hmmm, Interesting. Dr. Frank is definitely one to listen to. Knows what he is talking about

He's hyping. There is no way Dr. Frank believes that this is a SE TX threat. He did the same thing during Lili. She was forecast to turn...was turning as scheduled...adn the turn started that morning and he said (on the 6pm broadcast) to stay tuned because it's forecast to turn into LA, but it hasn't made the turn yet and is still headed right towards us...which at that time it was turning and headed right towards the western LA coast (Lake Charles area) and was continuing to recurve.

A met buddy of mine called immediately (because he happened to be listening to the broadcast)..screaming. I told him I heard the same thing.

Bottom line...either Dr. Frank had not looked at any data...including the 4pm advisory and satellite pictures since the morning (which I find hard to beleive) or he was hyping the storm to keep people tuned to channel 11...prbably at the request of the producers. Some of you in Houston might remember this incident.

I lost a lot of respect for him that day...and this is coming from a person who idolized him (kinda nerdy...I know) in high school and actually came dressed as Dr. Frank during a Chem. III assignment...which was to come dressed as a famous scientist and give a presentation like they would give.

The only blemish on an otherwise so far outstanding forecasting career. IMO

[seaswing]

Dr.Frank is probably talking about all this.Take a look:


http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/o ... ATLCIR.GIF

Wow, what a great picture. Absolutely amazing.

Classic hurricane pic! Beautiful in her own right isn't she?

[Air Force Met]

The only blemish on an otherwise so far outstanding forecasting career. IMO

You need to understand the profession of meteorology a little better. Doing that is a major no-no in my field. The respect of your cohorts is highly prized and takes a long time to earn. Nobody said he wasn't outstanding and had a great career. But...in the business...you don't give people false information so that they will stay tuned....I don't care who you are and what your being told to do.

There is an old saying...respect takes years to earn...and only moments to destroy...and it's true.

[stormcloud]

Neil is just an overly cautious guy. After being being “burned” with many misbehaving storms while Director of the National Hurricane Center, he errs on the side of caution. He knows first hand there is a 30% chance that a storm will move outside of its “cone.”

[vbhoutex]

Hmmm, Interesting. Dr. Frank is definitely one to listen to. Knows what he is talking about

He's hyping. There is no way Dr. Frank believes that this is a SE TX threat. He did the same thing during Lili. She was forecast to turn...was turning as scheduled...adn the turn started that morning and he said (on the 6pm broadcast) to stay tuned because it's forecast to turn into LA, but it hasn't made the turn yet and is still headed right towards us...which at that time it was turning and headed right towards the western LA coast (Lake Charles area) and was continuing to recurve.

A met buddy of mine called immediately (because he happened to be listening to the broadcast)..screaming. I told him I heard the same thing.

Bottom line...either Dr. Frank had not looked at any data...including the 4pm advisory and satellite pictures since the morning (which I find hard to beleive) or he was hyping the storm to keep people tuned to channel 11...prbably at the request of the producers. Some of you in Houston might remember this incident.

I lost a lot of respect for him that day...and this is coming from a person who idolized him (kinda nerdy...I know) in high school and actually came dressed as Dr. Frank during a Chem. III assignment...which was to come dressed as a famous scientist and give a presentation like they would give.

The only blemish on an otherwise so far outstanding forecasting career. IMO

I remember that AFM!!! I was screaming at the screen, at a man I also idolize(and still do), and I was one of the last ones here(S2K) to give up on the turn. At that point it was obvious. Personally, since I know a lot of his preparation is done by other mets behind the scenes(he doesn't do it all himself)and since it was a "changing situation", I think it was a combination of factors, all already mentioned.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What did he do wrong at the nhc?

[Air Force Met]

Neil is just an overly cautious guy. After being being “burned” with many misbehaving storms while Director of the National Hurricane Center, he errs on the side of caution. He knows first hand there is a 30% chance that a storm will move outside of its “cone.”

I know that...Elena was one of them...this wasn't that. He said it hasn't turned yet (which it had) and that it was still moving right towards us (which it wasn't...it was headed towards Lake Charles and still turning). He wasn't keepnig the possibility open for it to go back towards Tx...he was misleading the actual facts of what was happening. If you had seen the broadcast...you would understand. For me it's kinda like a teenager who loved a ball player...only to find out he was on the juice and beating his wife...and fixing games. It was a blow to the gut. Hard to recover from that. I know he knows his stuff...but why the false info? I'll never understand it.

[Air Force Met]

What did he do wrong at the nhc?

Nothing. He was a great director.

[jasons2k]

Neil is just an overly cautious guy. After being being “burned” with many misbehaving storms while Director of the National Hurricane Center, he errs on the side of caution. He knows first hand there is a 30% chance that a storm will move outside of its “cone.”

He actually said last night that it ended up outside the cone "over 65% of the time" last night. I did a double-take with my TiVo b/c I had NEVER heard that one before. I have a lot of respect for him but that just didn't seem correct. Maybe it was a slip in his old age, I don't know, b/c he had another slip last night too, but I can't rememeber what it was.

One other thing he said while describing the High's moevement was that timing would mean everything.

[perk]

Air Force Met how do you know what Dr. Frank believes.

[stormcloud]

This is right off the TPC's site:
The historical data indicate the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the outer uncertainty area about 60-70% of the time. There is also uncertainty in the NHC intensity forecasts. The intensity forecast chart and table below provide intensity forecast and intensity forecast uncertainty information.

Meaning there is a 30% chance that a storm will move outside the forecast cone.

My quibble with Neil has been that when on the air, he will go 100% with the TPC line. Off air he has questioned many of the their judgment calls.

[dwg71]

NF, is on TV because he likes the way he looks.

His blurb in today's Houston Chronicle " Katrina will move west this weekend towards the gulf, but it will mean very little to southest TX"

I'm sure this went to press not too long after he got off the air last night. I dont put anymore stock in him than any other TV met in houston.

[jeff]

I can see the reasoning behind the statement from an angle to keep tuned as a just in case.

In the 3 minutes of TV time OMC's get it is hard to explain all the possibilities. One statement not fully explained can be easily taken the wrong way by many.

Anyhow, everyone should know by this point that you must watch any tropical system regardless is you are within the cone of error or not. Sometimes processes can occur that can significantly change the forecast track, so don't trap yourself into statements like "Its not coming here" or "its going to place X".

For what it is worth, I do not see Katrina making it even into the central Gulf. I will stick with an Apalachee Bay landfall between St Marks and Cedar Key and I reserve the 5 day error cone of around 200 miles.

[Air Force Met]

This is right off the TPC's site:
The historical data indicate the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the outer uncertainty area about 60-70% of the time. There is also uncertainty in the NHC intensity forecasts. The intensity forecast chart and table below provide intensity forecast and intensity forecast uncertainty information.

Meaning there is a 30% chance that a storm will move outside the forecast cone.

My quibble with Neil has been that when on the air, he will go 100% with the TPC line. Off air he has questioned many of the their judgment calls.

That's my EXACT quibble with Dr. Lyons. HE was one of my profs at A&M...and I know how good he is...I've seen it...but he holds the party line...which makes some on this board think he doesn't know his stuff (just do a search on his name sometime)...but I know he does. He's brilliant. He questions them as well...but doesn't go against them on air.

Just a wee bit frustrating...but I understand it. We are forced (to some degree) to go with the party line...but during my briefs I always manage a way to say what I really think. It actually became a BIG issue during the 2003 season but the Colonel in charge of wx for jnt air force and army ops gave me a chance to prove myself with my deviating forecasts...and once he realized I was hitting it a little more than they were...he approved my deviations...as long as I still presented the official forecast as well.

So what I did was develop my own cone system. A black line was the NHC track...and a left red line was where my leftmost position/track was...with a red line on the rightside as well. Sometimes my right side red line was maybe 20 miles to the right of the NHC track (or to the left) if I thought they were missing the mark too far left or right. that's way I still do it...and they don't mind as long as I keep the NHC within my own personal cone of probability. It doesn't have to go right down the middle and can be on one side or the other...as long as it's there.