Dr Steve Lyons just said

[JtSmarts]

If Katrina turned more toward Miami, would it get there faster or slower, as opposed to the Broward area?

[vbhoutex]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Anywhere from Miami N is possible/probable for landfall. My guess, based only on what radar is showing right now is basically what I said yesterday, which is about 10-15 miles N or S of Ft. Lauderdale. Intensity will probably be in the 85-95 mph range since it is obvious the thunderstorms are wrapping around the center and should be able to accomplich this by the time Katrina is right over the bathtub hot waters of the Gulf Stream in a couple of hours. Unfortunately she is a slow mover so the effects felt by those in the core will be longer lasting than is normal and damage may become more than expected, between long times of hurricane force winds and hours and hours of torrential rainfall, which could be anywhere from 5"-15" by current estimates.

Once Katrina is in the GOM, probably still as a moderate TS, there seems to be nothing that will keep her from intensifying again, possibly to CAT2 status, unless she tracks close to the W FL GOM coast, which would inhibit the strengthening somewhat. If that scenario evolves, and even if Katrina doesn't track real close to the W coast it looks like most of the peninsula, especially the Western half is in for a very wet and blustery weekend. Track is quite problematic at this point, but it appears that consensus will end up with 2nd landfall, IMO, in the Western to central portions of Appalachee Bay, anywhere from Appalachicola to St. Marks. If this 2nd landfall is correct, Tallahassee can expect to experience strong TS force winds with gusts to and slightly above hurricane force and torrential rains ala Agnes(?) of 1966.

[Stormcenter]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Anywhere from Miami N is possible/probable for landfall. My guess, based only on what radar is showing right now is basically what I said yesterday, which is about 10-15 miles N or S of Ft. Lauderdale. Intensity will probably be in the 85-95 mph range since it is obvious the thunderstorms are wrapping around the center and should be able to accomplich this by the time Katrina is right over the bathtub hot waters of the Gulf Stream in a couple of hours. Unfortunately she is a slow mover so the effects felt by those in the core will be longer lasting than is normal and damage may become more than expected, between long times of hurricane force winds and hours and hours of torrential rainfall, which could be anywhere from 5"-15" by current estimates.

Once Katrina is in the GOM, probably still as a moderate TS, there seems to be nothing that will keep her from intensifying again, possibly to CAT2 status, unless she tracks close to the W FL GOM coast, which would inhibit the strengthening somewhat. If that scenario evolves, and even if Katrina doesn't track real close to the W coast it looks like most of the peninsula, especially the Western half is in for a very wet and blustery weekend. Track is quite problematic at this point, but it appears that consensus will end up with 2nd landfall, IMO, in the Western to central portions of Appalachee Bay.

Looks like the latest models have shifted westward slightly. Oh no not Pensacola again.

[btangy]

Doppler velocities showing a growing area of 50knot+ winds associated with the southern eyewall feature. One would expect to find the strongest winds on the north side, but Katrina is moving very slowly, so it doesn't make too much of a difference. So, should see 60mph in the next advisory just from the doppler velocities alone. One could argue these are the winds a bit aloft, but the storm is not too far out from the radar anymore.

[Derek Ortt]

there have been brief hurricane force velocities form the doppler data

[Ivanhater]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Anywhere from Miami N is possible/probable for landfall. My guess, based only on what radar is showing right now is basically what I said yesterday, which is about 10-15 miles N or S of Ft. Lauderdale. Intensity will probably be in the 85-95 mph range since it is obvious the thunderstorms are wrapping around the center and should be able to accomplich this by the time Katrina is right over the bathtub hot waters of the Gulf Stream in a couple of hours. Unfortunately she is a slow mover so the effects felt by those in the core will be longer lasting than is normal and damage may become more than expected, between long times of hurricane force winds and hours and hours of torrential rainfall, which could be anywhere from 5"-15" by current estimates.

Once Katrina is in the GOM, probably still as a moderate TS, there seems to be nothing that will keep her from intensifying again, possibly to CAT2 status, unless she tracks close to the W FL GOM coast, which would inhibit the strengthening somewhat. If that scenario evolves, and even if Katrina doesn't track real close to the W coast it looks like most of the peninsula, especially the Western half is in for a very wet and blustery weekend. Track is quite problematic at this point, but it appears that consensus will end up with 2nd landfall, IMO, in the Western to central portions of Appalachee Bay.

Looks like the latest models have shifted westward slightly. Oh no not Pensacola again.

what????

[jlauderdal]

there have been brief hurricane force velocities form the doppler data

my stormlab pro software is showing 4 meso features on the north and west eyewall now

[deltadog03]

me to...that meso, is right where the center is...