Very imaginative W & S Florida forecast.....

[dixiebreeze]

Looking at the long haul......

"West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
445 am EDT Thursday Aug 25 2005

Update...a tropical storm watch has been issued from Florida City
north to Englewood. Will issue first hls shortly and will put up an
npw for inland tropical storm watch for Charlotte and Lee counties.
Will wait on issuing for DeSoto and Highlands until we see if
Katrina maintains a west course or tracks a little south of west.
If the latter is the case...Highlands and inland DeSoto may be
spared tropical storm force wind gusts. For the same reason...will
continue to hold off on issuing a Flood Watch.

Previous discussion follows with updated watch/warning section...

Short term (today - saturday)...unknown. That word describes the
eventual outcome of T.S. Katrina. About the only thing you can hang
your hat on is that if you have outdoor activities planned this
weekend...you might want to postpone them until next weekend. Yes...
it should rain throughout west central/southwest Florida before the
weekend is through...but how much and when the worst will be is
still anybody's guess. In fact...we may be dealing with this
system a bit longer than we currently expect.

In any event...we'll try to make some sense of things now.

First...Katrina. The storm is having a hard time developing...
perhaps in part to dry air sneaking into the system (the dreaded "ho-
ho" effect). It also appears to be creeping along based on best
guess from satellite and radar. Model guidance has gotten quite
interesting at 00z...trending toward a slow west-southwest to
southwest motion over the next day or two. Though this sounds odd...
a look at Florida radiosonde observations certainly confirms the potential for this
to occur as flow is northeast (ktbw 06z) all the way up to 300
mb.

So...what to do about hazardous weather potential? We'll leave it
at that...potential...and hope we can draw a bead on this system by
the afternoon/early evening news cycle. As mentioned above...rain
and eventual flooding are our biggest concerns through the weekend.
Should the storm move southwest as indicated by the GFDL/GFS/NAM...
the heavy rain would go with it and only graze the S 1/3 of the
area...at first.

Should the system move due west as indicated currently forecast at slow
speed...the big numbers advertised as potential rainfall would occur.
While the GFDL/GFS/UKMET are in good agreement on slow motion...the
Canadian/NOGAPS race the system into the Gulf in 48 hours or so.

For now...we prefer the relatively slow motion but would not be
surprised to see Katrina ease a bit farther southwest and emerge
into the Gulf somewhere south of Naples sometime Saturday. Should
this happen...things could get interesting as a weakness in the
ridge may allow the system to turn to the north with potential for
intensification. Stay tuned!

As for sensible weather...the northeast flow and subsidence
wrapping well northwest of Katrina have left a warm but mostly clear
early morning. Expect another hot one today with similar coverage to
yesterday...only the showers/storms will be moving at a decent clip.
A generally fair weather night ahead with isolated activity in outer
feeder bands...and a bit more coverage from Tampa Bay south...
closer to the approaching system. Continued warm as north to
northeast winds stay up...so even locations north of Tampa Bay will
see lows in the middle to upper 70s.

Despite the continue north-northeast flow Friday...enough deeper moisture should
reach into southwest and south central Florida to provide more
numerous activity there. Still...the hit-or-miss nature will hold
down rain totals.

Using the GFS (which appears to have caught on to reality with
the 00z run) as a background model...the arrival of more steady
rains is expected at least in Charlotte and Lee County...perhaps
extending up through DeSoto and Highlands County...toward daybreak
Saturday. However...am a little concerned by the dry air that the GFS
shows wrapping around the system...so have continued to cut back precipitation
chances for now.

Saturday offers the best potential to see more widespread activity
over the central and southwest areas.

So...because the best chances for widespread rains are not until
Saturday...will hold off on any flood watches with this morning's
package. We should be able to make a decision by this afternoon.
The same GOES for any inland tropical storm (wind) hazards...it's
just too soon given a system struggling to get its act together.

Note: users of the National digital forecast database should use wind
and rainfall data Friday through Saturday as potential values...not
true pinpoint values. These will be subject to large changes.


Long term (sat night - wednesday)...given slow movement of Katrina
forecasted by TPC...she should be our problem through at least sun and
possibly beyond. Latest GFS coming in line with the NHC track...
taking the storm slowly across S Florida to a position just offshore of
srq Sun morning. Then it turns to the right a bit earlier than TPC
forecast and has the system parallel the coast and come ashore over
Cedar Key early Monday. NAM/dgex split the low into two parts with one
traveling faster than TPC forecast to a location northwest of Cuba at the
start of the period and the other NE of the Bahamas. The latter
system would be of no concern to US...but the former slowly drifts
north to strike the Panhandle...but not until Wed!


Still too much uncertainty out at days 4 and 5 to definitively say
where Katrina would go...but at this time it looks like we'll be on the east
side of the system for at least sun. Expect feeder bands rotating in
off of the Gulf to continue the heavy rains over our County Warning Area. Given the
soaking expected as the system crosses S Florida in the short term...this
could bring devestating floods.


For Monday and beyond...have gone with wrly winds across the region as
TPC forecast has Katrina pulling out north of the forecast area. Moisture coming in
from the Gulf and possibly a trailing band from the remnants of
Katrina should keep rain chances up across the region each afternoon...so
will stay with 50 probability of precipitation from previous forecast. This value also
accounts for the uncertainty in Katrina's position at days 5-7.

Have trended maximum temperatures down a degree for sun areawide and then down
a degree along the coast Monday and Tuesday because of flow off of the
Gulf. Min temperatures should continue above normal each day."




&&

[Ziplock]

Thanks for posting that Dixie. I am LMAO!!

"The storm is having a hard time developing...
perhaps in part to dry air sneaking into the system (the dreaded "ho-
ho" effect). "

For those who do not consider Little Debbies, HoHo's and Ring Dings to be some fine cuisine...I can't help you! You either know what the Ho-Ho effect is...or you are missing out on some of the world's finest junk foods...


Zip

[seaswing]

Cedar Key? hmmm....just 60 miles SW from me.....

[Brent]

They are as uncertain as the rest of us...

[scogor]

and I love that "just offshore of srq" they just kind of dropped in there...

Reminds me of the old Coast soap commercial: "So how you getting to work today?" "Backstroke!!"

[Trader Ron]

I doubt Katrina tracks SOUTH of Naples. We'll see..

[dixiebreeze]

Thanks for posting that Dixie. I am LMAO!!

"The storm is having a hard time developing...
perhaps in part to dry air sneaking into the system (the dreaded "ho-
ho" effect). "

For those who do not consider Little Debbies, HoHo's and Ring Dings to be some fine cuisine...I can't help you! You either know what the Ho-Ho effect is...or you are missing out on some of the world's finest junk foods...


Zip

I thought this was definitely one of the more creative short and long-range forecasts of the season. Someone was feeling chipper this morning.

[Rainband]

Watching this very close.

[Trader Ron]

Latest track takes it right across Alligator Alley..Hmmmmmmmm