Katrina is looking pretty damn good on infrared

[HeatherAKC]

PS: Channel 4 meterorologist (not Norcross) said that there is a wobble to the WSW but they talked to the NHC and they are not sure yet if its a wobble or definite motion

Confirming above. NHC not sure if wobble or change in track (Rappaport) and saw a nice radar graphic on CBS4 showing where eye was last hour, and where it is now. Sorry guys, but it's slightly SW now.

[skysummit]

she is starting to slow down now folks....

It's decission time for Kat!

[gatorcane]

she is sizing up the coast and calculating where she wants to strike....and picking up some energy in the process

[mascpa]

Diffluence is the spreading out of air. Remember a Hurricane (and other low pressure systems) are places where air comes rushing in at the surface (convergence). All that air has to go somewhere...or the low pressure would quickly become high pressure because all that air "fills it up".

So the low needs a mechanism to get rid of that air rushing in. In the case of a tropical system, it establishes outflow aloft--air that comes into the low goes up and out--diverging--or creating diffluence--aloft.

Divergence aloft alone acts to lower surface pressures--air rushing away aloft means that more air has to converge at the surface to keep things in "balance". So divergence/diffluence aloft means surface pressures are dropping.

Write back if you want more clarification. It's not quite so simple as I've laid out here, but hope it helps.

Thank you very much, I've got the basic concept. I appreciate your help!

[wjs3]

You're welcome, but please be sure to read AFM's response to me for further clarification!

[Stormcenter]

It's no wobble "in my opinion". She is moving WSW at a decent clip. The whole structure of the storm is moving WSW. I hope that trough is strong enough to pull her north otherwise .

The good news she does not have a distinct eye just yet.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

[Brent]

There is no way on earth this is 50 mph... where the heck is recon???

Oh yeah... and it looks to be headed for Fort Lauerdale or even Miami.

[gatorcane]

yeah but it's intensifying rapidly and an eye should be coming soon....a WSW movement would keep her over water longer...and she is starting to stall it looks like.

[InimanaChoogamaga]

There is no way on earth this is 50 mph... where the heck is recon???

Oh yeah... and it looks to be headed for Fort Lauerdale or even Miami.

They had computer problems. Maybe they got one of those worms targeting Microsoft 2000

[Derek Ortt]

its moving at about 265

people would be advised not to listen to the disclaimerless forecast provided by a certain poster

[sfwx]

FXUS62 KMLB 251347
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
946 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

.DISCUSSION...

SQUALLS MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE COAST HAVE BEEN PRODUCING PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH. TS KATRINA HAS
BEEN MEANDERING TOWARD THE FL COAST AND LATEST RADAR AND SAT IMAGERY
SUGGEST THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS ALONG WITH A SLOWING OF FORWARD MOTION. PUBLIC FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS CONCERNING WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS WL BE UPDATED
SHORTLY AFTER THE NEXT PKG FROM NHC AROUND 11 AM. FOREMOST CONCERN
ASIDE FROM GUSTY WINDS WILL BE INCREASED THREAT OF ACCUMULATING
RAINS INTO TONIGHT AND FRI. WILL REFINE TONIGHTS FLOOD WATCH AREA
WITH SURR OFFICES THIS AFTERNOON

[deltadog03]

agreed derek...wsw...we will see if that continues

[alicia-w]

265 is the direction, right?

[Brent]

There is no way on earth this is 50 mph... where the heck is recon???

Oh yeah... and it looks to be headed for Fort Lauerdale or even Miami.

They had computer problems. Maybe they got one of those worms targeting Microsoft 2000

I know that... that was EIGHT hours ago though.

[djtil]

am i the only one not seeing this "rapid intensification" on sat or radar? appears to be about the same as 12 hours ago.

i guess recon will sort this out very shortly.

[JtSmarts]

I think it has been more of a gradual intensification/organization. Recon will confirm it anything rapid is occuring.

[Weatherboy1]

The last couple of IR images (from 14:00 onward at the GHCC site) appear to show what could be the emergence of an eye (white cloudtops surrounding a red spot) This is another indication of potential strengthening. Looks like the forecast of a Cat 1 by landfall could very well verify. Sure wish we had recon in there...

[x-y-no]

its moving at about 265

people would be advised not to listen to the disclaimerless forecast provided by a certain poster

Yeah, but it only needs to go 255 to go straight over my head. I'd be happier if it was 290 or so.

Ah, well. Ya gotta take it as it comes.

[djtil]

recon is there......they are finding 55-60mph surface i believe.

[Jevo]

Let the wobble-a-thon begin.. looks like she shimmied back on herself to adjust back to the W a tad if not a liitle nort of west, but not by much..... This will happen all day..... Its like the stock market... take all of the spikes and wobbles and draw a line through the peaks and then you have your landfall prediction.... I think the NHC's landfall forecast is probably pretty dead on accurate, maybe 5-10 miles in either direction for margin of error, but you have to believe that are going to be able to plot a landfall in less thank 12 hours, especially with teh G4 data from yesterday, and the P3 sitting 60 miles off the florida coast

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kamx.shtml