Question

[bucman1]

Any chance Katrina can explode once she hit GOM waters and as some models indicate hug the coast?

[gatorcane]

YES

[bucman1]

GOOD MORNING! WHAT GIVES YOU THAT FEELING?

[WindRunner]

How much she explodes will depend on how far out she gets into the Gulf. If she is scraping the coast with her center/eye, then expect very little intensification. But if she gets further out and clears her entire core from the land/shallow water, then we could have a problem depending on how long she is out there.

[gatorcane]

The GOM off the west coast of FL has the hottest water in the entire Atlantic...90F +

[tronbunny]

I disagree that Kat needs to go way out in the Gulf to really intensify.
The storm will emerge into an area with conditions that were perfect for Charley to bomb in last year.
The SSTs are above 31C in the shallow waters from Tampa to the Panama City area.
That area could encourage any storm to "bomb".

[WindRunner]

I disagree that Kat needs to go way out in the Gulf to really intensify.
The storm will emerge into an area with conditions that were perfect for Charley to bomb in last year.
The SSTs are above 31C in the shallow waters from Tampa to the Panama City area.
That area could encourage any storm to "bomb".

Sure, but who cares about the SSTs if half the storm is over land? (can't get to them there!)

Just enough to clear the coast should be good enough for some decent intensification.

[bucman1]

I would exspect it clear the coast somewhere near Naples before turning
north and sst are very warm there!

[tronbunny]

Sure, but who cares about the SSTs if half the storm is over land? (can't get to them there!)

Just enough to clear the coast should be good enough for some decent intensification.

Agreed, to a point...
Florida gets the EC and WC seabreezes every day in the summer.
It's partiall due to the SSTs and landmass heating.
I know that Florida ia low-lying enough and stores enough moist heat over land to be "the next best thing" to open water for a storm.
With all of those items fueling a storm, it won't take much ultra-warm Gulf water to feed a partially landfalling cyclone enough to grow.

[gatorcane]

Florida is not really "low-lying" once you get above a line from Ft. Myers across to W. Palm Beach. South of there it is very swampy and moist...a storm that goes over the Everglades would weaken far less than a track across central or northern FL

[bucman1]

Has anyone seen the latest tracking models as far as it hugging the coast?

[WindRunner]

Has anyone seen the latest tracking models as far as it hugging the coast?

Yeah, only the UKMET does any more. Right now my bets are with the LBAR early and the GFDL later in the period.

[Patrick99]

Florida is not really "low-lying" once you get above a line from Ft. Myers across to W. Palm Beach. South of there it is very swampy and moist...a storm that goes over the Everglades would weaken far less than a track across central or northern FL

As best evidenced, of course, by Andy's path over the Glades...he didn't exactly fall apart.

[tronbunny]

Florida is not really "low-lying" once you get above a line from Ft. Myers across to W. Palm Beach. South of there it is very swampy and moist...a storm that goes over the Everglades would weaken far less than a track across central or northern FL

Very true about Kat's currently predicted track...
The Florida peninsula has a similar consistency of a sponge south of the I-4 line. That stored water and heat does little to deteriorate well-organized storms..
Cases in point..
Charley
Frances
Jeanne

They were all quite formidible in their ability to do damage even after moving over the south-of-central peninsula.

[WindRunner]

Florida is not really "low-lying" once you get above a line from Ft. Myers across to W. Palm Beach. South of there it is very swampy and moist...a storm that goes over the Everglades would weaken far less than a track across central or northern FL

Very true about Kat's currently predicted track...
The Florida peninsula has a similar consistency of a sponge south of the I-4 line. That stored water and heat does little to deteriorate well-organized storms..
Cases in point..
Charley
Frances
Jeanne

They were all quite formidible in their ability to do damage even after moving over the south-of-central peninsula.

Unfortunately, none of these storms took a track quite this far south or went very straight in their crossing and aren't quite comparable because we can't tell whether they would have continued degenerating after the crossing over such a moist part of FL (like Emily continued to do after Yucatan), or if the moistness really does keep them up in strength.

[tronbunny]

<snip>
Unfortunately, none of these storms took a track quite this far south or went very straight in their crossing and aren't quite comparable because we can't tell whether they would have continued degenerating after the crossing over such a moist part of FL (like Emily continued to do after Yucatan), or if the moistness really does keep them up in strength.

I'm sorry, Windrunner, but I fail to understand why the examples of these storms do not support the theory that Kat could, indeed emerge into the gulf, after traversing the peninsula, in a fairly organized condition that would be quite favorable for "bombing" almost immediately after hitting the GOM?
My assertition is that all of the 3 storms that 'wandered' through the southern peninsula last year were able to maintain some serious organization, long enough to hold together and remain powerful cyclones.
With the track that Kat is predicted to take, I believe that it will take litle time and little distance off the west coast for it to refuel enough for a devastating strike anywhere along the WCFL.

[MetroMike]

I think that the predection is for Katrina to spend many hours over the land areas is a deterant to maintaing its strength.

[tronbunny]

Again,
I do not believe it will fall apart significantly over the souther peninsula.
It will still be well organized enough upon emergence into the GOM to rapidly intensify and pose a significant threat to all the FL Gulf.

an excerpt from the 11am discussion supports my assertion.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/250902.shtml?

WTNT42 KNHC 251504
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 <snip>
..KATRINA COULD STILL POSSIBLY REACH CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. KATRINA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THEN RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE WARM GULF OF MEXICO WHERE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE LOW. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT KATRINA IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WHICH COULD BE IMPLIED BY THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. IN FACT...KATRINA WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.